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the competition among county economies has entered the era of “100 billion county”.

recently, the "research report on the development of china's 100 billion-yuan counties (2024)" was officially released, and one set of data attracted attention. in 2023, there will be 59 county-level administrative regions with a regional gdp of more than 100 billion yuan. compared with 2013, this number has increased by more than five times.

the "100 billion county" is the best among china's 2,844 county-level administrative regions. in 2023, the "100 billion county" will contribute 7.6% of the country's gdp, more than 10% of the output value of industrial enterprises above designated size, and about 10% of specialized and innovative "little giant" enterprises with 1.2% of the country's total land area and 4.5% of the permanent population. it can be said that the county economy is the foundation with the greatest potential for china's economic growth.

in recent years, novel coffee shops are no longer exclusive to big cities. more and more young people are flocking to county towns for reverse tourism...county consumption is blossoming in many places, and the consumption boundaries between big cities and small county towns are gradually disappearing.

so, what is the real consumption level of these counties? we take these "hundred-billion-yuan counties" as examples to try to understand the economic potential of county consumption.

more than 60% of "100 billion yuan counties" have consumption levels higher than the national average, with jiangsu having the highest density

data shows that in 2023, the total gdp of the 59 “100 billion yuan counties” was 9.6 trillion yuan, accounting for 7.6% of the national economy.

among the leading counties and cities, the top 10 in gdp are kunshan, jiangyin, zhangjiagang, jinjiang, changshu, cixi, shenmu, yixing, changsha county and yiwu. among them, jiangsu province alone occupies 5 seats, taking the top three; zhejiang province occupies two seats, and fujian, shaanxi and hunan each occupy one seat.

the 2024 study on high-quality development of china's county economy shows that in 2023, the total retail sales of consumer goods in china's counties accounted for 46.3%. mckinsey predicts that by 2030, 66% of china's personal consumption growth will come from county towns. it can be seen that the importance of the county consumer market is self-evident.

in 2023, the per capita consumption expenditure of the national residents will be 26,796 yuan. in terms of urban and rural areas, the per capita consumption expenditure of urban residents is 32,994 yuan, and the per capita consumption expenditure of rural residents is 18,175 yuan. applying this standard to the "100 billion counties", it can be found that there are 36 "100 billion counties" where the per capita urban consumption expenditure exceeds the national average, with jiangsu province having the highest density. in addition, there are 45 "100 billion counties" where the per capita rural consumption expenditure exceeds the national average.

specifically, the city with the highest consumption level among urban counties is yueqing city in zhejiang province, with per capita consumption expenditure reaching 57,682 yuan in 2023. yueqing city is a county-level city in wenzhou, zhejiang province. in 2023, the per capita disposable income of yueqing city's urban residents was 81,501 yuan, and the per capita disposable income of rural residents was 48,480 yuan. yueqing's wealth is inseparable from its huge industrial cluster.

yueqing is known as the "china electrical capital" for its concentrated industries, strong specialization and distinct regional characteristics. yueqing electrical cluster is the only national advanced manufacturing cluster dominated by counties in china. its leading product, low-voltage electrical appliances, accounts for more than 65% of the national market share. today, yueqing has more than 14,000 electrical enterprises and 16 listed companies.

dai xuqiang, mayor of yueqing city, zhejiang province, once said that yueqing's electrical industry chain is relatively complete, with a local supporting rate of more than 85%. it is expected that by 2025, the total output value of yueqing's electrical cluster will exceed 300 billion yuan, and it will strive to build a world-class electrical advanced manufacturing cluster.

image source: institute of political science and technology

yiwu city ranked second in terms of per capita urban consumption expenditure, reaching 54,960 yuan. yiwu city is a county-level administrative region of jinhua city, zhejiang province. in 2023, the per capita disposable income of yiwu city's urban residents reached 93,108 yuan, making it one of the county-level cities with the highest per capita income in china.

as we all know, yiwu is known as the "world small commodity capital" and is a "shopping paradise" in the hearts of global buyers. this is also the key to yiwu's economic take-off. from the olympic "explosive orders" to the "hot items" of internet celebrities, whether it is supplies for large-scale events or daily creative supplies, consumers will always shout at the first time: "pressure on yiwu!"

as of july this year, yiwu city has a total of 75,000 business locations, 210,000 employees, and 1.08 million business entities. it is also connected to 2.1 million small and medium-sized enterprises across the country, with an annual market turnover of over 200 billion yuan. yiwu's small commodity market has promoted the rapid growth of the local economy, making yiwu's per capita income level the highest among counties in the country.

in addition to yiwu and yueqing, the top ten counties in terms of consumer expenditure among the "100 billion counties" include five county-level administrative regions from zhejiang, namely wenling, cixi, ninghai, yuyao and ruian. zhejiang's reputation as the richest country in the world is indeed well-deserved.

generally speaking, places with strong gdp naturally have high per capita consumption, but there are many exceptions. comparing the gdp rankings of these "hundred-billion-yuan counties" with the rankings of per capita consumer expenditures, we can find that the per capita consumer expenditures of some economically strong counties are actually ranked last.

shenmu city in yulin, shaanxi province is one of the county-level cities with the most obvious contrast. in 2023, shenmu city's gdp was 234.71 billion yuan, ranking 7th in gdp, but its per capita urban consumption expenditure ranked 49th. the strong economy but low consumption is also related to the local industrial structure.

shenmu is china's largest coal-producing county, and its coal resources are second to none in the country. the proven coal reserves of more than 56 billion tons have laid a solid economic foundation for shenmu county. however, the income generated by coal is more reflected in government taxes and corporate profits, and the opportunities for ordinary people to share in wealth creation are relatively limited, which is also the imbalance in the development process of resource-based cities.

the same situation is also found in renhuai city, zunyi, guizhou. in 2023, renhuai's gdp reached 180.03 billion yuan, but its per capita urban consumption expenditure was 28,622 yuan, equivalent to a monthly consumption expenditure of 2,385 yuan per person. the reason why renhuai's economy is strong is that it has the highest market value in guizhou.kweichow moutaimaotai distillery contributes tens of billions of output value to renhuai every year. however, renhuai's geographical location is relatively remote, and the industry is thriving but not universal, which also affects the consumption level of renhuai residents.

the consumption level in yueqing and yiwu is comparable to that in beijing, shanghai, guangzhou and shenzhen. why?

jd.comsupermarket data shows that by 2023, the growth rate of coffee in county markets will exceed that of first-tier cities, and the growth rate of per capita consumption will be 26% higher than that of first-tier cities. the consumption level in counties is constantly upgrading.

in 2023, the overall per capita consumer expenditure in yueqing and yiwu, zhejiang, will be higher than that in the four first-tier cities of beijing, shanghai, guangzhou and shenzhen. the per capita consumer expenditure in taicang, changshu and kunshan, also in jiangsu province, will exceed that of the provincial capital nanjing. the number of economically strong counties that can rival the consumption levels of first-tier and new first-tier cities is gradually increasing.

the strengthening of county consumption is first due to the return of young people to their hometowns for employment, which stimulates the development of county economies from both the supply and demand sides. taking anhui province as an example, in 2023, the net inflow of population in linquan county, anhui province accounted for 21.7% of the province. this year, more than 20,000 people returned to linquan county for employment, more than 1,600 people started businesses, and more than 20,700 new market entities were registered.

the reason for the "reverse flow" of population is that many counties are "grabbing people" in a high-profile manner. in recent years, taihe county in anhui, suichang county in zhejiang, heping county in guangdong, yanting county in sichuan, qingyuan city in guangdong, etc. have vigorously introduced highly educated talents such as masters and doctors with real money, houses, and establishments, pushing the war for talents to a new height. for example, deqing county in zhejiang has attracted 97,000 college students in the past five years. in 2023, the county will introduce 141 doctors, 9,639 new skilled talents, and 20,000 college students.

on the other hand, the sinking of internet infrastructure has also broken down the information barriers between urban and rural areas. "broadband in every village" and "5g in every county" have made the speed at which "good things" are transmitted from big cities to counties faster and faster.meituandata shows that the proportion of county-level life service consumption orders in the country continues to increase, from 23.8% in 2019 to 30.6% in the third quarter of 2023. in addition, the constantly improving transportation facilities, convenient express logistics, and strong commodity supply chain system are also promoting the vitality of the county-level consumer market.

there is another reason for the higher per capita consumption level in counties. compared with big cities, county residents have more disposable income for daily consumption.

according to the survey data of "black ant capital", about 40% of households in county towns have an annual pre-tax income of more than 100,000 yuan, with a savings rate of about 38%; 13% of households have an annual pre-tax income of more than 150,000 yuan, with a savings rate of about 42%. according to the tsinghua university county consumer market survey report, 70% of county residents own real estate, 58.5% of residents own cars, and nearly 60% of those who own houses do not have mortgages. being able to save money and not having the pressure of house and car loans, the consumption power of county residents is naturally increasing.

recently, the state council issued the "five-year action plan for deeply implementing the people-oriented new urbanization strategy", which proposed that after five years of efforts, the urbanization rate of the permanent population will be increased to nearly 70%; urban-rural integration development will be promoted with counties as the basic units, and urban infrastructure and public services will be extended to rural areas, promoting the connection and complementarity of county, township and village functions.

the county is a combination of more than 40,000 towns and more than 660,000 villages, and is an important entry point for urban-rural integration. as an important carrier of new urbanization, the county market will also become a "new blue ocean" for consumption growth.