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on september 3, the latest economic data released by the united states was not good. the market was worried about economic recession and falling demand, and international oil prices suffered a sharp drop. on september 4, new york crude oil fell below the $70 per barrel mark, setting a new low this year.

new york crude oil futures trend

at 24:00 today (september 5), the domestic oil price adjustment window has arrived again. how much will the gasoline and diesel prices drop this time?

as the first important us economic indicator released in september, the august ism (institute for supply management) manufacturing pmi data has attracted much attention from the market. the data released on september 3 showed that the august ism manufacturing pmi was 47.2, lower than the expected 47.5 and higher than the previous value of 46.8. this is the fifth consecutive month below the 50 boom-bust line.

among them, the new order index fell to 44.6, significantly lower than the previous value (47.4), the lowest since may 2023; the production index further declined, from 45.9 in july to 44.8; the inventory index in august was 50.3, a sharp increase of 5.8 points from the previous month, and the previous value was 44.5; the employment index was 46, higher than the previous value of 43.4.

analysts said u.s. manufacturing employment continued to shrink, but the pace slowed, but the overall trend still showed sluggish manufacturing activity, raising market concerns about a u.s. recession.

another data released on the same day showed that the final value of the us s&p global manufacturing pmi in august was 47.9, expected to be 48.1, and the previous value was 48.

after the news was released, the three major u.s. stock indexes fell sharply that day, with the nasdaq index falling by 3.26%. international crude oil prices also suffered a sharp drop. new york crude oil futures prices fell by 4.53% that day, approaching the $70/barrel mark, and brent crude oil futures prices fell by 4.9%. on september 4, international crude oil futures prices continued to fall. new york crude oil futures fell below the $70/barrel mark, falling to a minimum of $68.82/barrel and closing at $69.25/barrel; brent crude oil futures prices fell to a minimum of $72.35/barrel, also approaching the $70/barrel mark.

brent crude oil futures trend

jinlianchuang analysis believes that the governor of the central bank of libya said that the country's factions are close to reaching an agreement and oil production is expected to resume; with the end of the summer vacation and the drop in temperatures, gasoline demand has weakened, which has further pushed down oil prices.

with the international crude oil price falling so much, how much will the domestic gasoline and diesel prices drop tonight? this may disappoint car owners.because this time the price reduction per liter of oil is only measured in cents, less than a dime.this is because the oil price adjustment is based on the average price of international oil prices in the past ten working days, rather than on the price of a single day.the last round of oil price adjustment (the time window was 24:00 on august 22) was shelved because the increase was less than 50 yuan/ton, but the unadjusted amount will be accumulated or offset in this adjustment.

according to jinlianchuang's calculations, as of today, the tenth working day, the average price of the reference crude oil variety is us$75.82 per barrel, with a change rate of -1.86%. the corresponding domestic gasoline and diesel retail prices have both been reduced by 100 yuan per ton. if converted to per liter, the reduction is 7 or 8 cents per liter.

photo by gong liangqi

so far this year, the domestic retail price of refined oil has undergone 17 adjustments, showing a pattern of "seven increases, six decreases and four stagnations". among them, the cumulative increase of no. 92 gasoline this year is 0.2 yuan/liter. a private car will spend 10 yuan more to fill up a tank of gas (calculated as 50 liters).since the beginning of this year, the domestic retail price of refined oil has shown a pattern of "seven increases, seven decreases and four stagnation", which is a tie. the cumulative increase of no. 92 gasoline has also further narrowed to more than one cent per liter.at present, the retail price of no. 92 gasoline in our province is 7.71 yuan/liter, no. 95 gasoline is 8.21 yuan/liter, and no. 0 diesel is 7.39 yuan/liter.