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bond market volatility triggers fluctuations in wealth management net value, and the "bond bull market" is not over yet

2024-09-03

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[as of august 14, there were 7,171 pure fixed-income public offering products in existence at wealth management companies. among the products that disclosed their net value on august 9 and after, products with negative returns during the week accounted for approximately 15.29%.]

the overall volatility of the bond market has increased recently, the regulatory authorities' attention to speculative long-term bonds continues to affect the market, and the treasury bond yield curve has become significantly steeper.

in the past week, 1-3 year treasury bonds moved down 1-2bp, 7-10 year treasury bonds rose about 2bp, 10-year treasury bonds reached 2.17%, and 30-year treasury bonds reached 2.36%, which have not yet recovered the lows of august (2.11% and 2.34%).

the volatility of the bond market in august also significantly affected the net value of wealth management products. as of august 14, there were 7,171 pure fixed-income public offering products in existence at wealth management companies (each product share was counted separately). among the products that disclosed their net value on or after august 9, the proportion of products with negative returns that week was about 15.29%.

in the next 1-2 months, the institutional people interviewed believe that the bond market is expected to be volatile, and the impact of fluctuations in the net value of wealth management on wealth management investors will continue. the interest rates of 10- and 30-year treasury bonds have not been significantly adjusted, and the cost-effectiveness is not high. however, in the next stage, as the pressure on the rmb exchange rate eases, the central bank may open up room for further monetary easing, and traders do not think there are major risks in the bond market. affected by the expected changes in the existing mortgage loan policy last week, the bond market yield has declined. lu ting, chief economist of nomura china, told reporters that the central bank may push banks to cut interest rates on approximately 25 trillion yuan of existing mortgage loans by about 40bp, saving borrowers 100 billion yuan in interest expenses each year, but it is unlikely to allow borrowers to transfer mortgages between different banks, which will lead to fierce competition among banks and further compress banks' net interest margins.