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interface news reporter | chen shenglong

interface news editor | liu haichuan

hezbollah completed its attack on targets in northern israel in retaliation for the israeli airstrike that killed its leader shukur, while the israeli military, with the assistance of us intelligence, launched a "preemptive" strike on hezbollah's missiles and rockets. although the scale of the exchange of fire between the two sides was the largest in 10 months, the overall damage was limited.

on august 26, 2024, as the highest-ranking officer in the u.s. military,chairman of the joint chiefs of staff charles brownafter a three-day trip to the middle east, he lowered the risk of conflict. he said that since the israel-lebanon conflict has not escalated and iran has not followed up, he judged that "the short-term risk of a wider war in the middle east has eased."

due to historical and religious reasons, arab countries and israel have been caught in an endless vicious cycle of bloodshed, hatred and revenge for nearly 80 years. at least egypt, saudi arabia, qatar, jordan and the uae all hope for a ceasefire in gaza and do not want to see the palestinian-israeli conflict expand into a regional war.

analysts told jiemian news, the middle east will still be trapped in a "revenge cycle".qin tian, ​​deputy director of the middle east institute of the china relations institute, said, "the threat of a large-scale war in the middle east still exists. we should be especially vigilant against israel's frequent provocations, which may provoke iran again. how iran responds in the future will determine whether a larger-scale war will occur."

iran: more realistic considerations

on august 5, iran andlebanon's hezbollah cooperated in launching joint operations,on august 12, the jewish "temple destruction day", a single strike was launched against israel... the us intelligence, which prided itself on its high accuracy, was proven wrong one by one.

over the past month, iran's official public statements have gradually changed.general staffaccording to the latest statement of chief of staff bagheri, iran will not forget the assassination of palestinian islamic resistance movement (hamas) leader haniyeh in tehran, and will not fall into the enemy's games and provocations. iran will make independent decisions with other members of the "resistance front", including palestinian hamas, lebanese hezbollah, yemeni houthi armed forces, and syrian and iraqi shiite militias.

october 7, 2023hamasthe qassam brigades, a subordinate armed faction, invaded southern israel, killing about 1,200 people and taking 251 hostages to the gaza strip. this was the worst attack on israel in terms of civilian casualties since the founding of the country in 1948. the public's confidence in the government's defense capabilities was shaken for a time, and far-right politicians took the opportunity to expand their demands.

nizar farsakh, a middle east expert at george washington university, told jiemian news that hamas caught israel off guard this time, which improved its geopolitical status and reputation in the middle east, as well as that of iran behind it. in the following months, hamas showed resilience in confronting israel's powerful military force, as well as otherresistance frontthe active participation of allies also strengthened iran's image.

july 31,the death of hamas political bureau leader haniyeh in tehran, the iranian capital, and the killing of lebanese hezbollah senior military commander shukur by israel have pushed the middle east to the critical point of a full-scale war. the israeli government admitted that shukur was killed, but has not yet responded to haniyeh's death.

fasah believes that as the israeli-palestinian conflict continues and the u.s. military is fully deployed, iran's marginal returns are getting smaller and smaller and its geopolitical advantages are weakening, so the new reformist government is seeking to ease the situation.

"if the israeli-palestinian conflict ends in february or march this year, victory will undoubtedly belong to iran and its allies; if it ends recently, the two sides will end in a tie, with the iranian camp still slightly dominant; and if the conflict escalates further, it will only undermine the gains made by the iranian camp," fasah said. "further actions by iran against israel will only provoke a 'legitimate' counterattack from the united states and israel, and ultimately hinder the progress of iran's nuclear program."

as for what specific actions will be taken next, qin tian said that it is not ruled out that iran will take unexpected actions, rather than the combination of drones and missiles in april this year as expected by us intelligence. iran and israel were cautious and restrained in their confrontation at the time, and their intention not to provoke a full-scale war was obvious.

in 2018, then-us president trump withdrew from the july 2015 iran-us, uk, france,russia, china and germanythe joint comprehensive plan of action (jcpoa) aims to provide economic assistance in exchange for iran's restriction of its nuclear enrichment program. the renewed sanctions by the us government have dealt a heavy blow to iran's economy. long-term inflation is the main economic challenge facing iran. last year, the country's consumer price index reached 45.8%, and the international monetary fund expects it to slow down to 37.5% this year.

iran is in dire need of foreign technology and investment in areas such as renewable energy, oil and gas infrastructure. iran's supreme leader ayatollah ali khamenei has made it clear to the new cabinet that developing nuclear energy is one of iran's fundamental and necessary priorities for the future. tehran's retaliation against israel will inevitably hinder its efforts to strengthen regional and international economic and trade ties.

even as officials have strongly stated that they will retaliate, iran's new foreign ministeraraghiin an interview with japan's kyodo news, he revealed that the new diplomatic team will seek to rebuild relations with the united states and european countries to ease tensions. as a key representative in the 2015 iran nuclear talks, the news of araghchi's appointment as the new foreign minister was widely welcomed by the iranian business community and western diplomatic circles.

total war: no winners

fasah told jiemian news that if the israeli-palestinian conflict escalates into a full-scale war in the middle east, no matter which side wins, iran, israel and lebanon will pay a heavy price, including economic recession, regime change and social unrest. the spillover effects include an increase in refugees,global oil prices surge and market volatility increases、inflation is back on the tabletotal war will go furtherthe impact on global capital's confidence in the middle east has been particularly severe in tourism, shipping, retail, agriculture and real estate.

this roundgeopolitical risks continue to disturbas a result, on august 27, the october price of brent crude oil futures broke through the $80 mark.haitong futures energy research and development center believes that after the panic sentiment is vented, oil prices will remain highly volatile due to factors such as adjustments in market expectations.

fasah predicts that as the war progresses, nuclear weapons will be put on the agenda. it is estimated that israel has about 90 nuclear warheads, while iran has the ability to produce three nuclear bombs.enriched uranium.once iran's islamic revolutionary guard corps is significantly weakened, a coup or revolution is possible. but this would require a large number of precise explosions at the regime's key power nodes, as well as extensive secret coordination, but given iran's mature ruling system and popular support, this possibility is extremely low.

naeem aslam, chief investment officer at zaye capital markets, said iran currently does not have the ability to start a full-scale war with israel and its supporters, and the capital market also tends to believe that the risk of a full-scale war in the middle east is low.

eugene rogan, a british historian and director of the middle east center at st. antony's college, oxford university, also told jiemian news that no country in the middle east has the ability to go to war with israel, except iran, which is too far away geographically and the cost is too high. rogan believes that the only risk of a large-scale war in the middle east is between israel and hezbollah in lebanon.

lebanon's economy has been shaky after years of political deadlock and is on the verge of "complete collapse".airports and ports, etc.much of the infrastructure will be destroyed, and economists expect lebanon's gdp to shrink by 10% to 15% this year.the country's gdp in 2023 was less than $18 billion.

rogan said hezbollah's restraint in its attacks and counterattacks against israel shows that they realize that due to the lack of an effective government in lebanon, as alebanon's largest political party and military organization,will be held accountable for the consequences of their actions.

chairman of the joint chiefs of staffbrown warned that the yemeni houthi armed forces are particularly strong among the members of iran's "resistance front"the latter has been demanding that israel stop its military operations in gaza, an unpredictable factor, but this demand is unlikely to be met in the short term.

in order to support hamas, the houthis vowed to harass merchant ships passing through the red sea, the "throat" of global trade. the organization claimed to have attacked 182 ships related to israel. the "sounion" tanker that was hit in the red sea was carrying 150,000 tons of crude oil and is still on fire. there are signs of oil leakage, which may cause serious environmental pollution.

s&p global market intelligencejack kennedy, reuters' middle east director, said that with the houthi armed forces' frequent use of unmanned ships and underwater vehicles, the risk of damage and sinking of passing ships has increased. these attacks will extend to the arabian sea, indian ocean and mediterranean sea, greatly increasing the risk of disruption to commercial shipping and military support.

israel will also face a tough time. a full-scale multi-front conflict will put further pressure on its finance ministry, making it more difficult to finance its deficit in the future.fitch has downgraded israel's credit rating from "a+" to "a", while maintaining the rating outlook at "negative". analysts expect the gaza conflict to continue until 2025.

trump or harris?

as israel's largest source of aid, the us authorities' middle east policy will greatly influence the direction of the israeli-palestinian conflict.

just as a large-scale war in the middle east was about to break out in early august, a former new york state legislatorBen Gellera message was posted on social media platform x, saying that the "pizza barometer" in washington was abnormal, and bars near the pentagon were unusually empty, indicating that the united states was planning military action. the biden administration's nervousness is obvious.

compared with april this year, the us military is more prepared, retaining two aircraft carrier battle groups in the middle east and deploying additional f-22 squadrons.the uss wasp, an attack ship equipped with f-35 fighter jets, and several warships are also patrolling the eastern mediterranean. public reports show thatsince the new round of israeli-palestinian conflict broke out on october 7 last year, the united states has shipped more than 50,000 tons of weapons and military equipment to israel.

at the same time, biden recently promised israeli prime minister netanyahu new military support to deal with possible drone and missile attacks. western scholars have begun to question whether biden's attitude of publicly promoting peace talks while condoning israel's escalation of actions is exacerbating turmoil in the middle east.

biden's term is less than half a year away, and his successor willthe middle east policy line to be implemented has attracted much attention. the american political arena as a whole sympathizes with jews and is pro-israel, but the candidates of the two parties have great differences in their relations with iran, especially in the field of iran nuclear negotiations.

harris made it clear when she accepted the democratic presidential nomination earlier this month that her position on israel's right to self-defense remains unchanged and that she and biden are "unwaveringly committed to israel's security." in addition, she also supports peace with iran.restarting nuclear negotiations is conditional on iran also returning to a verifiable state of compliance.

in the view of oxford university's logan, harris's election will be more conducive to peace in the middle east, even if only because she is a traditional political leader who abides by contracts and the rule of law. during his term, trump showed great unpredictability in foreign affairs and sloppy handling of details. given the complex and changing situation in the middle east, the united states needs a stable and predictable leader.

the latest republican party platform on middle east policy mentions "standing with israel" and "restoring peace in the middle east." trump often calls himself "israel's best friend ever." during his tenure, he gave high-profile support, including moving the u.s. embassy in israel from tel aviv to jerusalem, recognizing the golan heights as belonging to israel, and cutting all financial aid to the united nations relief and works agency for palestine.。

combined with his public statements during the campaign, it can be seen that trump is likely to continue the path he took four years ago, exerting "maximum pressure" on iran, imposing economic sanctions and targeted military actions. trump's team will also prevent iran from obtaining nuclear technology and delivery capabilities, and block iran's financial support for regional proxies such as hezbollah, hamas, the taliban, and al-qaeda by restoring and expanding sanctions.

"ironically, trump's election will be more conducive to peace in the middle east because he is very pure and direct, without the historical baggage of other presidents. he is expected to take bold actions, be stronger against the iranian camp, and may also put pressure on countries such as saudi arabia and the uae to absorb palestinian refugees and push saudi arabia to play a more active role in forming a 'middle east version of nato,'" fasah of george washington university told jiemian news. "harris is a typical representative of the democratic establishment, so she will not deviate from biden's line, but will have better communication and public relations methods."

gaza cost: more than 40,000 dead

another reason why iran has been reluctant to take action against israel is that it wants to wait and see the progress of the gaza ceasefire negotiations. as of august 30, due to the lack of substantial progress on key issues such as the "philadelphia corridor", "netzarim corridor" and the control of the rafah port, the latest round of gaza ceasefire negotiations in doha, the capital of qatar, has not yet been completed.heading towards rupture.

palestinians trapped in gaza are paying a heavy price。as of august 15, the israeli military's operations in gaza have caused more than 40,000 deaths.most of them are women and children, but also international aid workers。israel says it has killed about 17,000 hamas fighters in the fighting.

survivors face the threat of death, illness, hunger and thirst every day, and necessary humanitarian aid is difficult to reach.reappearance after 25 yearspolio in childrencase. rarethe good news is that on august 29, israel and hamas agreed to a temporary ceasefire for seven days starting from september 1 to allow children to be vaccinated against polio.

sinwar appointed as new hamas leaderhas final say on ceasefire agreement and release of israeli hostages. this year, he is 61 years oldhe spent 23 years in an israeli prison for engaging in "subversive activities". he was ruthless to hamas "traitors" and was known as the "butcher". in the long-term anti-israel struggle, sinwal has accumulated rich anti-reconnaissance experience. the israeli army once offered a reward of 400,000 us dollars for collecting his hiding place.。

sinvarisrael regards him as the mastermind of hamas' attacks on israel last year. bbc, wall street journal and other european and american media have previously pointed out that sinwar's becoming the leader of hamas shows that he has high prestige and support both inside and outside palestine and among his allies, "marking the beginning of a more extreme phase."

as a condition for a ceasefire, israel demanded that sinwar, the head of the qassam brigades, dayif and others leave gaza.sinwar, through egyptian officials, asked to sign the terms to ensure his own safety. since sinwar has been in strategic transfer, he cannot personally command hamas armed forces. this also makes direct dialogue between hamas and israel more difficult.

on august 20, sinwar, who rarely appears in public, issued a statement that the latest round of ceasefire negotiations was a "bluff" aimed at buying time for israel to continue its attacks on gaza. he also hopes to put more pressure on israel by expanding the conflict beyond gaza.

hugh lovatt, an expert on the israeli-palestinian conflict at the european council on foreign relations, said that israel's frequent assassinations of senior hamas leaders have led to a "qualitative change" within hamas and has moved it in a tougher direction.

eugene rogan of oxford university predicted to jiemian news that without extreme pressure from european and american allies, it would be difficult for israel to accept a permanent ceasefire. israel's assassination of haniyeh, the more moderate chief negotiator of hamas, means that they are not interested in serious negotiations. even the biden administration, which has always firmly supported israel, recognizes that netanyahu maintains the war for political interests. the most radical cabinet members, such as gantz, leader of the opposition national unity party, and ben-gvir, the first minister of national security, threatened that if netanyahu agreed to a permanent ceasefire, they would overthrow the current government.

on august 28, the israeli army continued to launch large-scale military operations in jenin, tubas and other places in the occupied west bank, killing at least 10 people and injuring 28. the palestinian red crescent society said that the so-called "anti-terrorism" operation of the israeli army actually targeted palestinian medical personnel. the west bank is one of the palestinian territories and is home to the presidential palace and other major government departments.

"the real problem, in my view, is that a ceasefire in gaza is unlikely as long as israel is led by radical politicians determined to continue the war," logan said. "there is no end in sight to this war that has lasted nearly 11 months, and now we can only hope that israel will take the initiative to end the war."