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"science and technology innovation board daily" august 29th ai may bring warmth to the mobile phone market.

in its latest report, market research firm idc said:global smartphone shipment forecast revised upward, it is expected that global shipments will reach 1.23 billion units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%. previously, idc predicted a 4% increase and 1.21 billion units shipments respectively.

the key reason for the higher expectations is ai. idc said that as demand for consumer electronics recovers, generative artificial intelligence (genai) will attract more buyers. it is expected that as more and more flagship products of mobile phone brands adopt built-in genai functions,by the end of 2024, genai smartphones will surge 344% and account for 18% of the market share。

there is no doubt that among all the ai ​​mobile phones right now, the one that attracts the most attention and is most anticipated is apple’s upcoming first ai mobile phone, the iphone 16.

a media report today said:apple believes that the iphone 16 will be a "huge success" and has placed initial orders with component suppliers for about 88 million to 90 million iphones, at least 10% higher than last year's initial order of 80 million iphones for the iphone 15.。

some component makers said they had even received orders for more than 90 million units, though they added that iphone makers typically place larger orders initially and then adjust order quantities after the products are actually available. overall, apple suppliers are cautious and expect full-year iphone shipments to be fairly flat due to a higher comparison base in 2023, multiple sources said.

wedbush believes thatiphone 16 will kick off the biggest upgrade cycle in apple’s history, recent research on the asian supply chain has made analysts more confident about the demand for apple's new generation of smartphones, and that apple will usher in a long-awaited growth revival in the coming year. it said that about 300 million iphones in the world have not been upgraded in more than four years, laying the foundation for a sharp surge in demand. "as the ai-driven upgrade cycle takes shape, apple's iphone sales in fiscal 2025 may exceed 240 million units. china remains the key to apple's growth."

▌ai mobile phones are expected to drive hardware upgrades

among apple's released iphones, only the 15 pro/pro max can be equipped with apple intelligence. these two models are also the only two iphone models with 8gb memory. well-known analyst ming-chi kuo had previously predicted thatthe iphone 16 series will continue to have 8gb of memory, which will also limit apple's development of large models on the end。

the iphone 16 series has not yet been released, and today ming-chi kuo has revealed some information about the iphone 17 series. he said that in the 2025 iphone 17 series, only the pro max model will have 12gb dram and an upgraded cooling system that combines evaporation chamber (vc) technology and graphite sheets; other models in the same series will have 8gb dram and use graphite sheets alone for heat management. enhanced device ai capabilities may become the main selling point of the iphone 17 pro max.

the development trend of ai mobile phones is expected to drive hardware upgrades. industrial securities' research report this week pointed out thatfrom the perspective of ai mobile phone basic hardware, in order to meet the experience requirements of large model operation, the demand quantity or value of components such as soc, memory, and heat dissipation will increase.。

analysts further pointed out that from the perspective of the whole machine, as the computing power of terminal chips and ai experience improve, the motivation for ai mobile phone replacement will increase, and the electronic industry chain will benefit from the total number of whole machines; secondly, in the early stage, large ai models are mainly installed in high-end models, and high-end product lines will benefit first. apple has a high share in the high-end market, and the benefit from the replacement trend is more obvious. we can pay attention to the business opportunities related to whole machines, odm manufacturers and "apple chain". from the perspective of the industry chain,the processor and memory are the most obvious beneficiaries, followed by the supporting incremental components such as heat dissipation., you can pay attention to business opportunities in storage expansion, processor localization, and incremental device segments such as heat dissipation and microphones.