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jingwei morning express | berkshire joins the "trillion-dollar club"; nvidia plunges after the market, what's the reason?

2024-08-29

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  [overnight news]

  nasdaq china golden dragon index fell more than 3%

the three major u.s. stock indexes fluctuated and weakened after opening. as of the close, the dow jones industrial average fell 0.39%, the nasdaq fell 1.12%, and the s&p 500 fell 0.6%. according to cnbc, u.s. stocks fell back due to the decline in nvidia's stock price, and investors are preparing for the latest performance of the chip maker.

large technology stocks in the u.s. stock market fell across the board, with apple down 0.68%, amazon down 1.34%, netflix down 1.74%, google down 1.11%, facebook down 0.46%, microsoft down 0.81%, nvidia down 2.1%, and tesla down 1.65%.

popular chinese stocks fell sharply, with the nasdaq china golden dragon index falling more than 3%. boss direct fell more than 21%, gaotu group fell more than 18%, ideal auto fell more than 16%, xpeng motors fell more than 9%, and nio fell more than 7%. 21vianet rose 18%, wanwu xinsheng rose more than 4%, haoxi health technology rose more than 2%, and yixian e-commerce and zhiwen group rose more than 1%.

  nvidia's performance exceeded expectations, but its stock price fell sharply after the market closed

according to cnn, nvidia's performance disclosed after the market once again exceeded expectations. the company reported that its second-quarter revenue exceeded $30 billion, up 122% from the same period last year and higher than analysts' expectations of $28.7 billion. profits for the quarter also more than doubled to $16.6 billion, higher than analysts' forecast of $15 billion.

thanks to the ai ​​boom, nvidia's stock price has risen 154% this year and more than 3,000% in the past five years. the company's market value now exceeds $3 trillion, and it even became the largest us stock market by market value. but for a company that has grown rapidly in the past two years, simply having outstanding performance may not be enough to impress investors. after nvidia's performance was disclosed, its stock price fluctuated after hours, and the decline has now widened to 8%.

there are different opinions in the market regarding nvidia's sharp drop after the market.

questions about the sustainability of the ai ​​hype cycle have reportedly begun to surface, with uncertainty about whether the technology will contribute to the bottom line for tech giants. what’s more, there’s a limit to how long any company can grow so quickly. while nvidia’s revenue and profits beat wall street’s expectations, investors seemed disappointed that the company didn’t beat expectations by a bigger margin.

concerns about the potential delay in the release of nvidia's newest ai chip, blackwell, have also heightened concerns about earnings, although company executives said on an earnings call wednesday evening that nvidia still expects to start generating revenue from blackwell this fiscal year.

nvidia's revenue forecast fell short of some of the most optimistic expectations, raising concerns that its explosive rise is fading. the company said on wednesday that third-quarter revenue would reach about $32.5 billion. while analysts' average forecast was $31.9 billion, the high end of the forecast range was $37.9 billion.

  french prosecutors in paris file formal charges against telegram founder durov

on the evening of august 28, local time, durov, the founder of the social media platform "telegram", was transferred to the court after being released from custody. the french paris prosecutors filed formal charges against him on the same day, involving six crimes including money laundering and using online platforms for illegal transactions. at the same time, he was banned from leaving france and required to accept judicial investigation. "telegram" had previously refuted these charges.

on the evening of the 24th local time, pavel durov, the founder and ceo of the social media platform "telegram", flew from azerbaijan to france on a private plane and was arrested at le bourget airport in the suburbs of paris. in response, several russian officials said that the arrest may be politically motivated. on the 26th, the paris prosecutor in charge of the case said in a statement that durov was arrested and detained for being involved in a cybercrime investigation. french president macron posted on social media on the 26th that durov's arrest in france was part of an ongoing judicial investigation and was not politically motivated.

durov was born in russia and is now 39 years old. he and his brother nikolay founded telegram in st. petersburg, russia in 2013. durov later moved the headquarters of telegram to dubai, uae. durov holds multiple nationalities including russian, french, and uae.

  openai is negotiating financing, and the company's valuation exceeds $100 billion

openai is in talks to raise a new round of funding that would value the artificial intelligence startup at more than $100 billion, according to cnbc. thrive capital will lead the round and invest $1 billion, according to a person familiar with the matter, who asked not to be named because the details are confidential.

earlier this year, openai's valuation was increased from $29 billion to $80 billion by 2023. the company began growing after launching its chatgpt chatbot in late 2022 and has continued as it launched enterprise products and expanded into ai-generated photos and videos.

the wall street journal mentioned that microsoft, as openai's largest supporter, also participated in this round of financing. openai recently announced that it will launch its search engine prototype searchgpt, which aims to provide users with "fast and timely answers and clear sources." the company said it eventually plans to integrate the tool into the chatgpt chatbot.

the launch of searchgpt could have an impact on google's search engine. since the launch of chatgpt, alphabet (google's parent company) investors have been concerned that openai could take away google's search market share by providing consumers with new ways to search for information online.

through searchgpt, openai is trying to provide users with "a more natural and intuitive way to search, just like in a conversation." openai ceo sam altman recently said in a post on social media, "we think there is room for improvement in search capabilities."

  berkshire joins the trillion-dollar club

on august 28, berkshire hathaway, owned by warren buffett, became the first non-tech american company to have a market value of over $1 trillion. on wednesday, berkshire rose 1%, bringing its market value above the trillion-dollar mark for the first time.

berkshire's gains this year have outpaced the s&p 500, which is off to one of its best starts to a year in a decade. berkshire's stock price has risen about 30% so far this year, while the market benchmark has risen 18%. the company's stock performance is not far behind the "seven sisters of u.s. stocks", the largest technology stock index, which has risen 35% this year. currently, companies with a market value of more than $1 trillion include apple, microsoft, nvidia, google, amazon, meta and saudi aramco.

berkshire's market value has increased by about 20% annually since 1965, nearly double the annual return of the s&p 500 over the same period. that has made buffett one of the richest men in the world and the most productive investor of all time.

according to cnbc, buffett has been in defensive mode recently, selling a large number of stocks, including half of apple shares, while increasing berkshire's cash reserves to a record $277 billion at the end of june. berkshire invested most of its cash in short-term u.s. treasuries, which were worth $234.6 billion at the end of the second quarter, exceeding the amount held by the federal reserve. in mid-july, buffett sold more than $5 billion worth of bank of america shares.

buffett is known to never predict market movements and advises others not to try to do so, but these recent moves are raising alarm bells for some of his followers on wall street.

cnbc said it is difficult to judge why investors are investing so much money in berkshire hathaway, whether it is because they are optimistic about the us economy and that buffett's huge conglomerate will benefit if the us economy continues to grow healthily, or whether they view berkshire hathaway as a cash fortress that can generate stable income amid an uncertain macroeconomic environment.

  【today's focus (beijing time)】

10:00 the state council information office held a press conference on the white paper "china's energy transformation"

10:00 national development and reform commission special press conference: introducing the "china-africa countries jointly building the belt and road" development report

15:00 the ministry of commerce held its second regular press conference in august

20:30 us real gdp annualized quarter-on-quarter revised value in the second quarter

  【new stock listing】

chengdian optoelectronics (920008)

stock code: 920008

issue price: 10.00 yuan/share

issue price-earnings ratio: 14.82

listing location: beijing stock exchange

main business: r&d, production and sales of network bus products and special display products

  【financial hotspots】

  the central bank's official website launched an announcement section for open market treasury bond trading business

on august 28, the "open market business" special page of the people's bank of china's official website launched the "open market treasury bond trading business announcement" column. as of press time, the column has not been updated. the update on the official website column shows that the central bank is ready for the open market treasury bond trading business, once again sending a signal that it will carry out treasury bond trading operations in the open market.

since the central financial work conference proposed to "enrich the monetary policy toolbox", the central bank has continuously released signals that it will conduct treasury bond trading operations in the open market, and has taken actual actions in the past two months. with the central bank signing bond borrowing agreements with several major financial institutions in july this year, the central bank can theoretically sell treasury bonds in the open market at any time.

  the dollar index fell to a nearly 13-month low

recently, the us dollar index has continued to fall. wind data shows that as of the close of august 27, the us dollar index has fallen by 5% since july. among them, during the trading session on august 27, the us dollar index fell to 100.5113, the lowest since july 21, 2023. as of press time on august 28, the us dollar index was at 100.916.

the rmb exchange rate trend and the us dollar index maintain an inverse fluctuation pattern. wind data shows that as of press time, the offshore rmb exchange rate against the us dollar has risen by 2.37% since july, and once rose above the 7.1 mark during trading on august 5; the onshore rmb exchange rate against the us dollar has risen by 1.93%.

  insurance telemarketing is accelerating its exit

recently, the regulatory authorities have successively agreed to cancel the shandong and hebei telephone sales centers of sino-british life insurance. according to incomplete statistics, as of now, 6 insurance companies have been approved to cancel 9 telemarketing centers this year, which is the same as the number of cancellations in 2023. the experts interviewed said that the insurance companies canceled the telemarketing centers mainly due to the impact of other channels (internet channels, bank insurance channels, etc.), the increase in business development costs, and the impact of many complaints on the company's reputation.

  bank etfs are liquidated at a rare high level

in this year's carnival of the banking sector, a rare case of liquidation of bank etfs has occurred. recently, wells fargo csi bank etf released a fund liquidation report, which showed that the fund had suffered a net redemption of 20.7 million shares this year, and the net asset value has been below 50 million yuan for 60 working days. at the same time, similar fund outflows are common in bank etfs, and 11 bank etfs in the market have suffered a net outflow of nearly 5 billion yuan this year.

however, while the industry etfs are being sold as they rise, the "national team" and insurance funds are continuously increasing their holdings, becoming the main force driving the current round of bank sector gains. especially since this year, central huijin has increased its etf holdings, with the scale of the csi 300 etf increasing by 474.2 billion yuan from the beginning of the year. banks rank first in the weight of the csi 300 industry, and about 60 billion yuan of funds have flowed into the banking sector through the csi 300 etf.

  the impact of the punishment on baker tilly international has spread, and 15 projects under review have announced "change of venue"

as of tuesday, all 25 projects of baker tilly international accounting firm (bai tilly international) that were in the queue for review at the shanghai and shenzhen stock exchanges were put on hold, mainly because baker tilly international was previously suspended from securities services for six months by the china securities regulatory commission. on the beijing stock exchange, the relevant ipo projects were quickly suspended as early as the night when baker tilly international was punished. so far, a total of 32 projects of baker tilly international have entered the "suspended" state.

in the past two weeks, issuers of projects in which baker tilly participated have announced plans to "change firms". according to statistics, at least 15 companies will "change firms", most of which are ipo projects. some listed companies are also planning to adjust accounting firms for mergers, acquisitions, restructuring or refinancing projects. some issuers have also chosen to terminate their listing. on the evening of august 27, xingtian technology, another shanghai ipo project of baker tilly, withdrew its application materials.

  in the first month of the implementation of the new regulations, the number of private equity fund registrations dropped by more than 80%

in the first month of the implementation of the new private equity regulations, the number of new stock private equity products registered dropped sharply. according to data from the china securities investment fund association, as of august 28, only 91 private equity securities funds had completed registration this month, less than 100, setting a record low for a single month since private equity registration, and a drop of more than 80% from july.

some industry insiders said that the recent difficulty in registering private equity products was mainly due to the fact that in the early stage of implementation of the "guidelines for the operation of private securities investment funds", many managers and custodians had different understandings of product registration and did not meet the requirements of the new regulations. they frequently received feedback from the association, resulting in a low registration approval rate.