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reprinted from: jinshi zatan

the world has changed overnight. the once cute shanxi fenjiu has collapsed, and the entire liquor sector has collapsed as well. as of press time, shanxi fenjiu is close to the limit down, gujing gongjiu and luzhou laojiao are both down about 6%, and wuliangye is down nearly 4%.

the collapse of shanxi fenjiu is actually somewhat similar to the logic of pinduoduo. first, the growth rate of performance has slowed down (lower than expected); second, there is no dividend, but fenjiu's dividend is relatively fixed, so this reason is not convincing; third, they are all institutional stocks, and the selling caused by institutional bearishness is often a stampede.

1) the interim report shows that in the interim period of 2024, shanxi fenjiu achieved revenue of 22.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.6%; and achieved net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.3%.

if this performance is put at the current time, it will definitely be a ceiling. however, in a bear market, any good news is bad news. high performance growth will be difficult to sustain in the future; if performance growth is low and falls short of expectations, the stock price will also collapse.

you see, compared with the quarterly data of the past year, the growth rates of both revenue and net profit are declining, with the net profit growth rate being less than 20%; while shanxi fenjiu's net profit margin in the second quarter fell by 1.8 percentage points to 29%, and its gross profit margin fell by 2.7 percentage points to 75.1%.