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The spot price of gold hit a record high for the 25th time this year, while the futures price of gold broke the record for the 30th time.

On August 20, Wind data showed that the price of spot gold (London gold spot, the same below) broke through the integer marks of $2,500/ounce, $2,510/ounce and $2,520/ounce in succession, setting new historical highs. The highest price once rose to $2,525.23/ounce, which was the 25th time that the historical high was refreshed since the beginning of the year.

As of press time, after a brief surge and then a fall, the spot gold price has risen back above 2,520 yuan per ounce, closing at 2,522.83 U.S. dollars per ounce.

It is worth mentioning that the spot gold price just hit an all-time high of $2,500 per ounce last Friday, bringing the price of each gold bar (usually weighing about 400 troy ounces) to the milestone of $1 million.

In the futures market, Wind data showed that COMEX gold futures also rose rapidly during the session on August 20. As of press time, it once rose to a high of US$2,563.8 per ounce, setting the 30th record high since 2024.

From July 26 to date, COMEX gold futures have risen by more than US$200 in this round of upward movement, an increase of more than 8.5%.

In the domestic futures market, as of the close of Tuesday (August 20), the main Shanghai Gold 2410 contract closed at 574.24 yuan/gram, up 0.18%, and once rose to 575.16 yuan/gram during the session.

In addition, the price of Shanghai Gold Exchange's "Shanghai Gold" also rose on August 20. As of the close, the closing price of Shanghai Gold Au99.99 contract was 572.75 yuan/gram, with a maximum price of 573.9 yuan/gram; the closing price of Au99.95 contract was 572.99 yuan/gram, with a maximum price of 575.0 yuan/gram; the closing price of Au100g contract was 574.49 yuan/gram, with a maximum price of 574.5 yuan/gram.

In terms of the price of jewelry gold, although it has fluctuated recently, it still remains above 740 yuan per gram.

According to the data of Shanghai Gold Jewelry Industry Association, on August 20, the price of pure gold was 744 yuan/gram at Lao Feng Xiang, 742 yuan/gram at Lao Miao, andChina GoldReported 742 yuan/gram,Chow Tai FookThe price is 745 yuan per gram.

Regarding the recent record highs in gold prices, analysts said that it was mainly due to factors such as rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and increased overseas geopolitical risks.

"The rise in gold prices is mainly driven by the expectation of interest rate cuts and the risk aversion caused by geopolitical risks." Xu Ying, an analyst at Shanghai Dongsheng Futures, said that the Fed officials' speeches were dovish, indicating that the September interest rate meeting was imminent.CPIIt fell back to 2.9% year-on-year, and core CPI fell back to 3.2% year-on-year. Although this was basically in line with market expectations, the slowdown in core inflation led to a slight decline in market expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut.

In terms of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the GF Futures report further pointed out that although the resilience of US inflation and retail sales data has eased market concerns about recession, the Fed officials spoke in a "dovish" tone last week, with some officials saying that "the labor market and some leading economic indicators are flashing warning signals." Currently, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September has risen to 75%, and the rate cut this year will be about 75 basis points to 100 basis points.

In terms of risk aversion, Hualong Securities said that with the current rising geopolitical risks, such as tensions in the Middle East and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset has also increased.

Looking ahead, China Post Securities believes that the essence of gold is a measure of inflation, and the stagflationary economic environment in the United States may be most favorable to gold. Therefore, even against the backdrop of weakening expectations of a US recession, gold and silver are still rising simultaneously.

"In the long run, under the influence of factors such as the increase in the U.S. deficit ratio, geopolitical disturbances and the near-shoring of the U.S. supply chain, the central bank's logic of gold purchases remains unchanged, and the pace of interest rate cuts may accelerate as the U.S. employment situation weakens. The gold market is expected to open up again in the second half of 2024," said China Post Securities.

In addition, Hualong Futures Research Report pointed out that data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that in the week of August 13, the non-commercial net position of gold was 267,300 contracts, a significant increase of 28,500 contracts from a week ago, and the non-commercial net long position of gold increased significantly.ETFThe State Street Gold Index Fund SPDR held 854.97 tons on August 16, an increase of 8 tons from a week ago. The buying of ETFs is also a signal worthy of attention.

However, Xu Ying reminded that although London gold broke through $2,500 per ounce last week, it fell on Monday.Internal diskThe increase is less thanForeign disk, the main contract of Shanghai Gold is lower than its high point this year. This is mainly due to the weakening of domestic physical demand and the recent slight appreciation of the RMB. Therefore, the domestic market has turned from a premium to a discount, and it is expected that this situation may continue.