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Cailianshe reported on August 19Recently, the international gold price has hit a historical high driven by the weakening of the US dollar and the expectation of interest rate cuts. Last Friday, the spot gold price broke through $2,500/ounce, setting a new historical high. COMEX gold futures closed up 2.07% on Friday at $2,546.2/ounce.

Affected by the surge in gold prices, A-share gold concept stocks surged across the board today.Yulong Shares、Lassen PsychicDaily limit,Xiaocheng TechnologyUp more than 13%.

according toGuosen SecuritiesGenerally speaking, gold prices generally strengthen during periods of dollar easing. From the perspective of year-on-year growth, the central rate of gold price growth has risen significantly after the interest rate cut began, and it has remained at a high level throughout the entire interest rate cut cycle. From the perspective of absolute growth, compared with the month before the interest rate cut, the gold price increased by an average of 4.6% in the first week after the interest rate cut, and the average increase in 6 months reached 19.51%.

How is the quality of gold concept stocks during the mid-year report season?

It is the interim report season. Currently, more than 600 listed companies have disclosed their 2024 interim results. How is the quality of gold concept stocks? Currently, there are onlyHangmin Shares, Xiaocheng Technology, etc. have announced their interim results. Among the stocks that have announced their 2024 interim results forecasts,Guocheng Mining、Hunan Silver、Jinyuan SharesThe net profit growth forecast for the first half of 2024 is the most significant.

It is worth noting that China City Mining received a prior notice of administrative punishment from the Chongqing Securities Regulatory Bureau last year due to false information disclosed in the 2022 first quarter report, 2022 semi-annual report and 2022 third quarter report. Hunan Baiyin (formerly Jingui Silver Industry) achieved a year-on-year turnaround in the interim report season. The reason was that during the reporting period, the company made majorAsset RestructuringThe acquisition of 100% equity of Baoshan Mining was completed, and Baoshan Mining was included in the company's consolidated financial report. The company's operating scale and profitability were improved; the prices of non-ferrous metals such as silver, gold and lead continued to rise.

my country's central bank has stopped purchasing gold for three consecutive months. How do you view the price of gold?

The GF Strategy Team summarized ten recent market concerns over the weekend. One of the focus issues is: China's central bank has not increased its gold holdings in foreign exchange reserves for three consecutive months (May-July). How do you view the gold price at this time?

It said that since the beginning of 2023, the inverse trend of gold prices and U.S. Treasury real interest rates has begun to diverge. The logic behind this is that the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has further strengthened the safe-haven properties of gold, and the continued gold purchases by global central banks have also played a core driving role in the upward trend of gold prices. The starting point of this round of China's central bank's increase in gold holdings is precisely from the beginning of 2023, which has relatively weakened the weight of the U.S. dollar liquidity factor in the gold pricing system. Looking ahead, the proportion of gold in China's foreign exchange reserves is still very low. Considering the many uncertainties at the geopolitical level in the future, the GF Strategy Team speculates that the probability of the central bank increasing its gold holdings is still relatively high, and the upward shift of the gold price center is still highly certain.