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Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced on August 14 that he would resign as prime minister, becoming the latest in a growing list of unpopular leaders.

In recent decades, these leaders have come and gone in a rigid political system, and the Japanese public has become increasingly dissatisfied with this system.

Fumio Kishida, 67, announced at a press conference on Wednesday that he would not run in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election in September, when the winner will become Japan's prime minister.

The LDP has held tight control of Japan's parliament since 1955, with the exception of four years. But decades of scandal and a failure to address many of Japan's deep-seated social and economic challenges have fueled widespread voter dissatisfaction.

Fumio Kishida is a moderate stalwart of the party and was unpopular even when he first took office as prime minister in October 2021.

This year, his approval ratings have fallen to new lows in recent months.

While opinion polls show deep discontent with the ruling party, that discontent rarely finds its way to the ballot box. Low voter turnout and a weak political opposition have largely insulated the LDP from the prospect of losing a nationwide election.

Kishida said on Wednesday he hoped his decision would give the LDP a chance to make big changes.

"A government can only exist if it has the trust of the people, and I made this decision out of a strong desire to promote political reform," he said. "The most obvious first step to show that the LDP is changing is for me to step down."

But next month will tell whether the ruling party’s elite powerbrokers, after years of resisting pressure to change, are finally ready to choose a candidate who can and is willing to bring about significant change.

In October 2021, Fumio Kishida will replace Yoshihide Suga as Prime Minister of Japan/Reuters

Kishida's approval ratings have slipped again in recent months amid another scandal involving a prominent LDP lawmaker, and his reputation has been tarnished by rising prices that are weighing on households and Japan's broader economy.

Political analysts say Kishida's reputation has been damaged by a perceived inability as a leader to offer bold solutions as Japan faces a rapidly shrinking population, a sluggish economy and growing debt. Domestically, he has largely maintained the ruling party's long-standing economic policies, even though they have failed to address Japan's stagnant economic growth.

The resignation of Fumio Kishida, who has been in office for less than three years but is Japan's eighth-longest-serving premier, has reignited fears of a return to the cycle of prime ministers that has long characterized Japanese politics.

Shinzo Abe, who served as prime minister from 2012 to 2020, is Japan's longest-serving prime minister. Apart from him, the terms of office of the prime ministers were relatively short. They all failed to implement major policy changes and were forgotten shortly after leaving office.

Government officials and security experts say Japan particularly needs strong and determined leaders at a time when geopolitical uncertainty is clearly increasing.

Japan is a key U.S. ally facing not only an increasingly aggressive North Korea but also threats posed by regional powers, including deepening economic and military ties between China and Russia, and concerns about conflict over the Korean Peninsula and Taiwan.

During his time in office, Kishida worked closely with U.S. President Joe Biden to boost military and economic cooperation between the two longtime allies and between Japan and South Korea, where relations have been strained for years. Kishida also significantly upgraded Japan's military defense capabilities, breaking with decades of restraint on military spending.

In September 2021, Fumio Kishida won the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election in Japan

Ken Kamiyasu, a professor of international politics and security at Japan's Keio University, said the Abe and Kishida governments are "relatively stable, which is good for Japan's diplomacy."

Ken Kambo said that although Kishida ultimately did not have enough energy to improve the ruling party's reputation in Japan, he took advantage of his long tenure as foreign minister.

Kambo said the challenge for the next LDP leader will be to cope with political uncertainty abroad - especially in the United States - and pursue policies at home that will gain support from the Japanese people.

“It’s not certain that Japan will have a government that stays in power for a long time again,” he added.

Earlier this year, Kishida disbanded his own faction within the LDP amid a campaign finance scandal that found it had failed to formally report political donations amounting to hundreds of thousands of dollars. Other ruling party factions failed to report even larger sums.

The prime minister has made various attempts to restore public trust, including introducing legislation to reform campaign finance rules, and tried to disband the Unification Church after the assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and the group's extensive ties to conservative Japanese politicians were exposed.

The moves have done little to boost Mr. Kishida’s approval ratings, which a poll last week by public broadcaster NHK found at just 25 percent, down from about 50 percent when he took office.

Japanese society is facing serious problems of declining birthrate and aging population

Kishida took office in 2021 after a year of growing voter frustration with the government's handling of the pandemic and related economic woes. In response to public concerns, he pledged to usher in a "new capitalism" and encourage companies to distribute more of their profits to employees.

Independent political analyst Harumi Arima said Kishida tried to implement a series of policies designed to win domestic support, including subsidies for families to improve Japan's low birth rate and several goals such as doubling people's income, which ultimately proved unattainable.

Ultimately, Mr. Kishida “had no cards left to play,” Ms. Arima said. He was remembered as an “overly restrained” prime minister who rarely strayed from the party line, but who did increase Japan’s defense budget “to better prepare for a world full of tensions,” she said.

Kishida's low approval ratings are partly due to a surge in inflation caused by policies implemented in recent years.The country’s central bank has stuck to rock-bottom interest rates and allowed prices to rise, but emerging inflation has weighed on households and dented consumer spending.

With Kishida's approval ratings falling to new lows in recent months, the LDP has been searching for a potential successor.

One prominent contender for the leadership of Japan's ruling party is Taro Kono, a Georgetown University graduate who is often outspoken and nonconformist but lost to Fumio Kishida in the 2021 election. The showdown between Kishida and 61-year-old Digital Minister Taro Kono was one of the most intense campaigns in years.

At the time, public support for Taro Kono was high, and although the party knew Kishida did not have strong public support, it chose him anyway because he was seen as a safe choice.

Other possible candidates to lead the LDP include the party's current secretary-general, Toshimitsu Motegi; hard-line conservative Sanae Takaichi, who if elected would become the party's first female leader; and Shigeru Ishiba, a prominent official who has run for the post four times.

Fumio Kishida said on Wednesday that whoever the LDP chooses as its next leader will face "truly severe domestic and international difficulties."

With the upcoming elections in mind, he said: "The most important thing is to govern in a way that wins the sympathy of the people."

Kyodo News reported on August 18 that Digital Minister Taro Kono (61) has been coordinating the announcement of his candidacy for the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election in September this year. Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa (71) has informed Prime Minister Fumio Kishida of her intention to run. Former Minister of Economic Security Takayuki Kobayashi (49) plans to hold a press conference at the Japanese Diet on the 19th to announce his candidacy.

According to statistics, after the current Prime Minister Kishida announced that he would not run for re-election, about 10 people, including former Secretary-General Ishiba Shigeru (67 years old), Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi Yoshimasa (63 years old), and former Chief Cabinet Secretary Kato Katsunobu (68 years old), have successively expressed their intention to run for the election and are currently competing for nominations.

An elderly Japanese man rests on the streets of Tokyo

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