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In the past trading week (August 12 to August 16), the most core keyword for A-shares was - low volume.

In the first three days, the market turnover was less than 500 billion yuan; in the last two days, the turnover increased to more than 590 billion yuan each. For the whole week, the cumulative turnover of 2.65 trillion yuan is undoubtedly the lowest level of the year. (Note: Only a full trading week with 5 trading days is compared)

The good news is,The rule of "land volume determines land price" has initially emergedThis week, some stock indices have closed with positive lines, among which the dividend index led the gains; the CSI 300 and CSI 2000, which represent the two major directions of core assets and small and micro-cap stocks, also closed higher.

However, judging from the performance of the Wind All A Index (-0.05%) this week, the current market sentiment can only be said to be "warming up", but it is not yet excited. Investors can maintain optimistic expectations, but still be cautious when taking action.

As it happens, the news this weekend is not peaceful. Let's focus on what recent events may affect the market trend next week.

1. Review of recent news

1. Thoughts on “ground volume”

Wu Kaida's team at Tianfeng Securities believes that the essence of the low-volume market is the further "shrinkage" of capital behavior. After A-shares and U.S. stocks "desensitized" and moved independently since 2024, the market has further "desensitized" from the numerator under the recent low-volume market. Since July, the market's intraday volatility has declined after the release of important economic data, waiting for the volatility to amplify after the low volume.

1) From a spatial perspective, after removing the impact of new stocks, the current land volume level is still significantly higher than the lowest value in Q4 2018, which is approximately equivalent to the center of 2018H1 and 2019. For example, the total A-share turnover on August 14, 2024 is 370 billion yuan (comparable caliber after removing new stocks), which is still much higher than the central low point of the land volume level in Q4 2018 (227.3 billion yuan);

2) From a time perspective, in the land volume market in the second half of 2018, land prices appeared about one month after the land volume, and the land volume market lasted for about a quarter.

3) From the perspective of industry structure, after removing the impact of new stocks, the volume levels of most industries are still higher than the low point in 2018 on a comparable basis. However, sectors with certain dividend attributes such as banking, publishing, electricity, coal mining, industrial metals, and consumer sectors such as food and beverage, and automobiles currently have volume levels similar to the lowest point in 2018, and the absolute level is also on the low side. From the perspective of volume level, they may be the first to "arrive".

GuoRong Securities Research Report said that the market in the land volume and land price is boring and trading is light. The stage bottom is undoubtedly reached, but the effectiveness of technical indicators has decreased. When most of these situations occur, the market needs external stimulation to activate sentiment and warm up. In the past, after the clear land volume appeared, the short-term direction variables increased.The probability of an upward reversal caused by an oversold rebound is higher.

2.CSRC: The total amount of fines and confiscations in the first half of the year was more than 8.5 billion yuan, exceeding the total amount of last year

The summary of the administrative law enforcement situation of the CSRC in the first half of 2024 released by the CSRC mentioned that in the first half of the year, the CSRC investigated and handled 489 securities and futures violation cases, made more than 230 penalty decisions, an increase of about 22% year-on-year, punished 509 responsible entities, an increase of about 40% year-on-year, banned 46 people from the market, an increase of about 12% year-on-year, and the total amount of fines and confiscations was more than 8.5 billion yuan, exceeding the total for the whole of last year.

In the long run, cracking down on all kinds of illegal activities in the capital market in accordance with the law will be conducive to the high-quality development of the capital market and enhance investors' sense of gain and investment security.

3. "Black Myth: Wukong", which is about to be released, has received rave reviews!

Black Myth: WukongIt will be officially released next Tuesday (August 20)However, with the lifting of the ban on media ratings in the past two days, many media outlets gave it high scores, and its popularity also went viral.

It is foreseeable that:

on the one hand,"Wukong concept stocks" may usher in speculation around the official launch dateBut if the market volume falls,Beware of hot topics being cashed outrisk.

According to incomplete statistics, the concept stocks closely related to Black Myth: Wukong in the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets mainly include:Zhejiang Publishing Group (publisher), Tencent Holdings (investor), Huayi Brothers (indirect shareholder), Zhishang Technology (handle partner)wait.

On the other hand, the breakthrough of phenomenal games is also expected to boost the overall activity of the game market.Games, cloud gamesThe sectors such asConsumer ElectronicsThis hardware side echoes.

In addition, Wind data shows that several gaming ETFs on the market have recorded an increase of more than 2% this week, with three consecutive positive weekly lines.

4. Monkeypox epidemic escalates, more than 80% of concept stocks closed higher this week

On Wednesday (August 14), World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus announced that the monkeypox outbreak constitutes a "public health emergency of international concern."

Starting from Thursday, the A-share "monkeypox concept" attracted attention, and on Friday, a surge in daily limit prices was triggered. 49 of the 61 constituent stocks in the sector closed higher this week, with KeyGen Biopharmaceuticals having the highest increase, up more than 70% in 5 days.

Kefu Medical, which soared on Friday, also "timely" stated on the interactive platform on Saturday that the company's monkeypox virus (MPV) nucleic acid detection kit (fluorescence PCR method), monkeypox virus (MPV) antigen detection kit (colloidal gold method), and monkeypox virus (MPV) IgG/IgM antibody detection kit (colloidal gold method) have obtained the EU CE certificate; and had no impact on the company's performance during the reporting period.

However, industry insiders pointed out that the transmission mode and conditions of monkeypox are relatively harsh, and the transmission intensity is directly related to the level of social and economic development of the location. The conditions for a large-scale outbreak of monkeypox are not available in China. The speculation of monkeypox concepts in the secondary market may be irrational to a certain extent, and investors need to pay attention to short-term risks.

2. Outlook for next week’s events

In addition to the aforementioned Black Myth: Wukong, which will be officially released on Tuesday, next week's news is relatively flat, but there are still a few things worth paying attention to. Including:

August LPR announced

On Tuesday, the central bank will release the LPR for terms of one year and above five years.

Data from July showed that the one-year LPR was 3.35%, and the LPR for periods of more than five years was 3.85%. Both the one-year and five-year LPRs fell by 10 basis points simultaneously.

However, the meaning of this data release is slightly different from previous ones.

According to media reports, in the past, the operating rate of MLF was announced first and the LPR was announced later. The operating rate of MLF can be used as an important reference for the formation of LPR. The two often "rise and fall synchronously" and have a very high correlation. The market can predict LPR with the help of the operating rate of MLF.

But on Thursday (August 15), the central bank announced that the 401 billion yuan medium-term lending facility due on that day will be renewed on August 26. Some people believe that this is equivalent toSending a signal to the market that LPR and MLF are further decoupled, and continue to further weaken the guidance of the MLF medium-term policy interest rate.

Market price changes of important means of production in the circulation sector are released

Next Saturday (24th), the National Bureau of Statistics will release changes in market prices of important means of production in the circulation sector.

Previous data showed that according to the monitoring of the market prices of 50 important means of production in nine categories in the national circulation field, compared with late July 2024, the prices of nine products rose, 36 fell, and five remained unchanged.

The information disclosure mechanism for Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect transactions has been adjusted again

The Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange recently announced that they have decided to adjust the information disclosure mechanism for the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect transactions starting from August 19.

In terms of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, after the adjustment, the total transaction volume and total number of transactions of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, the total transaction volume of ETFs, the list of the top ten most active securities and their total transaction volume will be announced after the close of each Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect trading day, and the summary of the above data will be announced on a monthly and annual basis.

The total number of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect investors holding a single security at the end of the previous quarter will be announced on the fifth Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect trading day of each quarter.

MarketAccording to Wind data, 49 listed companies in the A-share market will haveRestricted shares released, calculated based on the closing price on August 16,Market value is approximately RMB 75.326 billionIn terms of individual stocks, the top three in terms of market value of unblocked stocks are: Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank (30.704 billion yuan), China Shipbuilding Technology (4.21 billion yuan), and China Telecom (3.96 billion yuan).

Next week, 1.5449 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, of which 74.5 billion yuan, 385.7 billion yuan, 369.2 billion yuan, 577.7 billion yuan and 137.8 billion yuan will mature from Monday to Friday respectively.

It is particularly noteworthy that next week there will be1,168 A-share listed companies released their 2024 semi-annual reports, including Sinopec, China National Petroleum Corporation, China Construction, China Railway Construction, China Life Insurance, etc.

3. Review of this week's market

Index performance:Dividend index leads gains

Leading gainers and losers:Consumer electronics "leading the way"

Number of stocks that rose or fell, number of stocks with price limits, and market volume

Total number of stocks that rose this week: Total number of stocks that fell →2186:3077

Weekly gain and loss list of stocks

Northbound funds: dividend stocks and bank stocks are added against the trend

Data showed that northbound funds sold a net of 6.775 billion yuan on Friday. This week, northbound funds sold a total of 5.036 billion yuan.

On Friday, China Unicom ranked first with a net purchase amount of 430 million yuan, while Tianfu Communication and Xinyisheng, both in the communications field, increased their holdings by 125 million yuan and 105 million yuan respectively. Seres increased its holdings by 340 million yuan, ranking second.

On the selling side, BYD reduced its holdings by 206 million yuan.

Looking at the performance for the whole week, the net purchases of China Yangtze Power and Ping An of China were 661 million yuan and 532 million yuan respectively; China Unicom and Seres increased their holdings by more than 400 million yuan.

On the selling side, CATL and Wanhua Chemical reduced their holdings by 790 million yuan and 512 million yuan respectively, while Midea Group, Oriental Fortune, Wuliangye and Weilan Technology all reduced their holdings by more than 400 million yuan.

Investment is risky, independent judgment is important

This article is for reference only and does not constitute a basis for buying or selling. You should bear the risks of entering the market at your own risk.

Cover image source: Screenshot of B station webpage

Reporter Zhao Yun, Editor Peng Shuiping

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