Support rate is in "dangerous waters", four key words for Fumio Kishida's nearly three years in office
2024-08-18
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On the morning of August 14, local time, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida held a press conference at the Prime Minister's Office, announcing that the Liberal Democratic Party will undergo reforms this fall and that he will no longer run for the position of president of the Liberal Democratic Party. This also means that he will resign as prime minister after the new president is elected.
Kyodo News reported earlier that Kishida's decision to give up running for re-election was related to the continued low approval rating of the cabinet. Analysts said that the "black money" scandal within the Liberal Democratic Party has caused the cabinet's approval rating to continue to hover at a low level of around 20%, and Kishida has also lost the support of the party. Kishida judged that it would be more difficult to be re-elected, so he gave up running for re-election.
Before the sudden announcement, the latest poll results of Japan's Mainichi Shimbun showed that Kishida's cabinet approval rating was 21%, which has been in the "dangerous waters" of below 30% for 13 consecutive months, and is only one step away from the 20% that is considered to be in the "waters of resignation". Its disapproval rating reached 73%, which has been at a high level of over 70% for 9 consecutive months. Faced with the continued low approval rating, not only the opposition camp demanded Kishida's resignation, but the same voice was also publicly heard within the Liberal Democratic Party.
From an approval rating of over 50% when he came to power in 2021 to a dismal 21% today, Kishida has faced various challenges in less than three years. Which of these gave him "extra points", which exposed hidden worries, and which became the last straw? The Paper sorted out four key words during Kishida Fumio's nearly three years in office.
Economic Report Card
On September 29, 2021, Fumio Kishida was elected and sworn in as the president of the Liberal Democratic Party, succeeding Yoshihide Suga who did not seek re-election. On October 4 of the same year, he was elected as the 100th Prime Minister of Japan. On October 31, he led the Liberal Democratic Party to win an "absolute and stable majority" of seats in the new House of Representatives election. On November 10, he was elected as the 101st Prime Minister of Japan.
At that time, Kishida's approval rating exceeded 50%, and the people had high hopes for him. After taking office, Kishida's first task was to take measures to prevent the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as to address economic stagnation and inequality exacerbated by the pandemic. In order to address these issues, Kishida vowed to pursue a "new form of capitalism" to promote a fairer distribution of wealth. However, Kishida's "new capitalism" policy has been widely criticized by domestic and foreign policy experts for its lack of specific strategies and details.
It is worth mentioning that Kishida announced a plan to expand Japan's defense spending in December 2022, calling for an increase in Japan's military budget to 43 trillion yen by 2027, about 2% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP). Although the United States welcomed Japan's new commitment to strengthen its defense, Kishida faced some criticism at home over logistics funding and concerns about over-militarization. In February 2023, Japan's House of Representatives approved a record defense budget of 6.8 trillion yen, an increase of about 20% from the previous year.
Yao Zeyu of the Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies at the China Institute of International Studies previously wrote in The Paper that Kishida's contradictory economic policies have aroused the resentment of the Japanese people. Earlier, the Kishida government proposed a "defense tax increase" policy to fill the gap in the increase in defense spending by raising taxes, and Kishida was therefore dubbed "tax increase glasses" by Japanese netizens. However, on November 2 last year, the Kishida government proposed a new comprehensive economic policy, claiming to stimulate consumption, boost investment, get out of deflation, and reduce the burden on the people through a fixed tax reduction. Faced with the government's repeated jumps between "tax increase" and "tax reduction", most Japanese people believe that the tax reduction policy is just a stopgap measure for Kishida to get rid of the ridicule of "tax increase glasses" and consolidate votes. At the same time, some Japanese people are worried that the tax reduction policy will inevitably lead to a reduction in national fiscal revenue, and the financial resources in the social security field such as the countermeasures to the declining birth rate will face greater uncertainty.
The post-Abe era
On July 8, 2022, former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot and killed. Two days later, on July 10, the Liberal Democratic Party won an overwhelming victory in the House of Councillors election. Kishida Fumio held a press conference at the time and said that he would inherit Abe's "legacy" and work hard to solve problems such as constitutional amendment and the kidnapping of Japanese.
Thanks to his victory in the Senate election, the electoral pressure that Fumio Kishida will face in the next three years has "dropped sharply", which also means that challenges to his leadership and key policies such as the "new capitalism" plan will most likely come from within the LDP. Koichi Nakano, a professor of political science at Sophia University in Japan, previously told The Paper that Fumio Kishida has also gained more room to display his talents because of Abe's death.
However, at the same time, several cabinet ministers were involved in the "Unification Church" scandal related to Abe's death, which also brought challenges to the Kishida government. A month later, on August 10, Kishida Fumio reorganized the cabinet and adjusted the personnel of the Liberal Democratic Party. At that time, his approval rating had dropped to the lowest point since he took office. Japanese media analysis pointed out that from this cabinet reorganization and the high-level personnel of the Liberal Democratic Party, it can be seen that Kishida intends to consolidate the foundation of his regime, including how to deal with the largest faction, the Abe faction, and absorb non-mainstream factions.
Yoichi Serikawa, a guest editor of the Nikkei Shimbun, said on August 14, after Kishida announced that he would not run for the presidential election, that Shinzo Abe had served as Japan's prime minister for the second time since 2012, and the 2020 Yoshihide Suga administration was just a continuation. Fumio Kishida revised the "Abe era" and developed it at the same time. These developments include the strengthening of defense forces and adjustments to nuclear power plants and energy policies.
G7 Diplomatic Show
Serikawa Yoichi believes that the reasons for the failure of Kishida's administration can be traced back to a year ago. If Kishida had held a special session of the Diet to dissolve the House of Representatives at the end of the usual Diet or in October after the G7 Hiroshima Summit in May 2023, when the Cabinet and political parties still had high support, and postponed the regular House of Representatives election out of sight, perhaps the current situation would not have happened.
Since the summer of 2022, the former "Unification Church" issue has revealed the chaos in Japanese politics. Subsequently, many cabinet ministers resigned due to scandals, and the cabinet's approval rating continued to decline. The discharge of Fukushima nuclear waste water into the sea in 2023 will also be subject to scrutiny by the international community. The Kishida government is facing multiple crises.
Therefore, for Japan, the G7 Hiroshima Summit was the most important home diplomacy of the year. For Kishida Fumio, it was a rare opportunity to play the leading role in front of the leaders of Western powers. In addition, under the political turmoil in Japan, the discussions and results of the G7 will not only have an impact on the international situation, but may also influence Japan's domestic political situation.
Kishida began his diplomatic show in the name of the G7 in early 2023. He first visited the five European and American member states of the G7 and discussed a series of issues such as the situation in Ukraine, nuclear disarmament, and climate change with all parties before the summit, taking this opportunity to further strengthen defense and security cooperation with various countries.
In March, Fumio Kishida made a "lightning" visit to Ukraine, becoming the first Japanese prime minister to visit a war zone since World War II. Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Japan has always kept pace with the G7 countries in terms of aid to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia. Japanese media said that after the leaders of the United Kingdom, the United States, France, Italy and Germany visited Ukraine, Fumio Kishida realized that as the head of the G7 rotating presidency, visiting Ukraine is an important way for him to show his attitude.
As Kishida performed well in diplomacy and his approval rating rose, some analysts believed that he might dissolve the House of Representatives ahead of schedule and hold a general election. However, Kishida did not dissolve the House of Representatives, and his approval rating was 66%, the highest peak of his ruling career.
"Dirty money" scandal crushes public opinion
Last November, the Liberal Democratic Party was exposed to the "black money" scandal. Many factions issued sales targets to their members of parliament, requiring them to sell political fundraising party coupons. If the sales target is exceeded, the excess funds will be returned to the members in the form of "kickbacks". This part of the funds will not be registered in the faction's income and expenditure report and the member's political fund income and expenditure report, thus becoming unregulated secret funds.
As the "black money" scandal fermented, the support rate of the Liberal Democratic Party continued to decline. On January 19 this year, the three major factions of the Liberal Democratic Party, the Kishida faction, the Abe faction, and the Nikai faction, decided to disband.
In April, the Liberal Democratic Party imposed disciplinary sanctions on 39 people involved in the incident, but Kishida himself was not punished, which aroused widespread doubts. In the Japanese House of Representatives by-election held on April 28, the Liberal Democratic Party lost in all three constituencies, and the seats originally belonging to the party were all won by the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party.
Then in June, faced with continued low support rates, calls for Kishida to step down emerged not only from the opposition camp, but also from within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party.
According to Japan's Jiji Press, a poll conducted by the agency from July 5 to 8 showed that the support rate of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's cabinet dropped to 15.5%, setting a new record low for two consecutive months.
According to a July poll conducted by Nippon.com and eight major Japanese media, Kishida Fumio's approval rating in all eight opinion polls is still below 30%. Respondents' dissatisfaction with the government's policy choices is one of the main reasons for opposing Kishida's government.
Kyodo News reported on August 14 that some in the LDP called Kishida Fumio's announcement that he would not run in the September LDP presidential election a "pleasant decision." Opinions differed on whether Kishida or the Abe faction should be held responsible for the low approval rating. Akira Koike, secretary-general of the Japanese Communist Party, stressed at a press conference that "the LDP as a whole must bear responsibility. There will be no change in the transfer of power within the LDP."
The Liberal Democratic Party of Japan will hold an election management meeting on September 20 to decide the specific schedule for the party president election in September. At present, the 67-year-old former Secretary-General of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan, Shigeru Ishiba, has expressed his intention to run for the election. The 68-year-old current Secretary-General Motegi Toshimitsu and the 63-year-old Minister of Economic Security Sanae Takaichi have expressed their positive willingness. The 61-year-old Minister of Digital Affairs Taro Kono has also expressed his willingness to run for the election to the Vice President of the Liberal Democratic Party Taro Aso. In addition, possible candidates include the 43-year-old former Minister of the Environment Shinjiro Koizumi and the 49-year-old former Minister of Economic Security Takayuki Kobayashi.
The Paper reporter Nan Boyi and intern Zhan Chenle
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