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Author: Dun and Pan

Source: Zhenghe Island（ID: zhenghedao）

2024 is a watershed year for the rise and fall of liquor, with two major events: the retail price and market value of Moutai will be nearly halved compared to their peak; and the international UBS Securities agency downgraded the ratings of many well-known liquors from buy to neutral.

The liquor market in 2024 is in turmoil, the capital market "kills valuation" and "kills growth logic", and stock prices fall sharply; the consumer market is weak, and every family has its own problems. The media broke the news that Moutai's social inventory is nearly 700 million bottles, and the base wine is estimated to be nearly 700 million bottles. 1.4 billion people have an average of 1 bottle of Moutai per person! This number can make all those who make, sell, drink, give away and store wine take a deep breath. It seems that the prosperity of liquor has ended or has overdrawn the prosperity.

There are many reasons analyzed by experts or experts, which are basically: the continued sluggish economy and consumption downgrade; the continuous expansion of production capacity and the bursting of the false prosperity bubble of "controlling quantity and raising prices"; the rejuvenation of brands and the transformation of consumption of the new generation; even the "fighting egg" has affected the consumption of liquor...all seem to make sense.

1. See the essence through the phenomenon.In fact, everything is cyclical

Chinese culture is 5,000 years old, and Baijiu is 3,000 years old. Although it has gone through many dynasties, it has survived till now and its scale has grown exponentially.

Without talking about the distant past, just looking at the past 50 years, liquor has basically had its golden period of 10 years, with adjustments every 5 years or so, a typical wave-like development and spiral upward.