In-depth analysis: Iran’s revenge “script” exposed | Phoenix Focus
2024-08-15
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On August 15, a new round of Gaza ceasefire negotiations was underway. The outcome of this negotiation is crucial because, according to Iranian officials,If no agreement is reached in this round of negotiations, Iran will launch a retaliatory attack directly against Israel.
It has been more than two weeks since Iran first proposed retaliation against Israel, butWhy is Iran sitting still?According to the latest news, Iran’s “script” for retaliation against Israel has been exposed.
Haifa is a port city in northern Israel and a popular tourist destination. However, as tensions in the Middle East rise, the number of tourists visiting this laid-back coastal city has dropped significantly.
Haifa is only about 30 kilometers from the Lebanese border, completely exposed to Hezbollah rocket rangeHaifa has been hit by drone strikes several times in recent days, increasing the sense of crisis in the frontline city. The region has begun preparing for possible attacks by Iran and its allies.It is reported that,Iran's allies, including Hamas, Yemen's Houthi rebels, Lebanon's Hezbollah and the Iraqi resistance, have all been involved in planning the retaliatory actions.According to anonymous sources, Iran will launch the first wave of attacks, followed by the Houthi armed forces, Hamas and other organizations, and then Hezbollah in Lebanon will launch the second wave of attacks.Iran’s revenge “script” is gradually emerging.At the end of last month, the military commander of Lebanon's Hezbollah, Shukur, and the leader of Hamas, Haniyeh, were assassinated one after another, affecting the situation in the entire Middle East.Lebanon's Hezbollah and Iran have threatened to make Israel pay the price.Iran said it was considering launching drone and missile attacks on military targets near Israel's major cities of Tel Aviv and Haifa.The port of Haifa is home to Israel's largest refinery, with huge oil tanks and other highly flammable targets nearby; Tel Aviv is the most densely populated area in Israel.Although Iran has frequently issued threats and the outside world has predicted that the two countries are on the brink of conflict, August 15 was already the 16th day after the assassination of Hamas leader Haniyeh.Why has Iran’s “retaliatory action” not yet begun?Taiwan current affairs commentator Lai Yueqian:"The supreme leader of Hamas was killed in Iran. If Iran does not give an explanation to its five overseas armed groups and the people at home, it will be a veritable 'paper tiger'. Therefore, in this action,Iran can only succeed, not fail, so the planning and preparation cycles are relatively long.。”On August 12, Iran's Acting Foreign Minister Bagheri stressed that Israel will pay the price in a legal and resolute manner.US media reported that Israeli intelligence agencies assessed that the scale of Iran's attack this time would be larger than its retaliatory action in April.Ma Xiaolin, Dean of the Mediterranean Research Institute of Zhejiang International Studies University:“His ultimate goal is actually to control the military and not cause significant casualties to Israel.The international community knows that Iran can defend itself according to the law, and Iran does not want to lose the relative peace it has now. The international situation is already very difficult."With Iran's retaliation pending, Israel is currently on "high alert" waiting for the shoe to drop.Hezbollah leader Nasrallah said in a televised speech that "waiting is also part of the punishment."However, different voices have emerged in Iran regarding the revenge plan. After Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei ordered a direct attack on Israel,However, Iran's newly-appointed President Pezhichyan has publicly expressed the hope that Khamenei will consider avoiding a war between the two countries by attacking Israel.
Ma Xiaolin, Dean of the Mediterranean Research Institute of Zhejiang International Studies University:"Pezhechiyan is generally a moderate, reformist, and open-minded person. He has sent out a series of easing signals."andCracks also appear to be emerging among Iran's allies.Earlier, Kuwait's Al-Ahram newspaper revealed that representatives of Iran and its allies gathered in Tehran, the capital of Iran, on August 11 to coordinate a response to Israel, but representatives of all parties had major differences at this meeting.On August 5, US President Biden and Vice President Harris met with the national security team in the White House Situation Room to discuss how to respond to Iran's upcoming retaliatory actions against Israel.In recent days,The United States has repeatedly warned Iran that if it launches a large-scale attack on Israel, the newly elected government and the country's economy could suffer a devastating blow.Ma Xiaolin, Dean of the Mediterranean Research Institute of Zhejiang International Studies University:"The United States issued a strong warning in order to stop the war. It does not want Iran to really start a war this time.Getting involved in a war in the Middle East again is not in line with the United States' immediate and long-term strategic interests and strategic planning.。”Not only busy mediating,The United States is also currently stepping up the deployment of more naval warships and fighter jets to the Middle East to strengthen defense.The USS Lincoln nuclear-powered aircraft carrier strike group, originally deployed in the Western Pacific, is heading to the Middle East, and the United States has also dispatched additional cruisers and destroyers capable of destroying ballistic missiles to the Middle East and Europe.On August 11, US Secretary of Defense Austin ordered the US Navy's "Georgia" nuclear submarine to sail to the Middle East.This is also a rare time for the Pentagon to publicly disclose the deployment of nuclear submarines.In addition to the deployment of naval forces, the United States has dispatched more than a dozen F-22 Raptor fighter squadrons to the Middle East.Taiwan current affairs commentator Lai Yueqian:"Send the new generation of F-22 stealth fighter jets. Iran does not have powerful radars, and the F-22 fighter jets can assist Israel in striking Iran.The main purpose of the United States putting up this posture is to stop Iran and make it give up the idea of revenge.”While the United States is busy providing more military aid to Israel, Russia has also responded to Iran's retaliatory actions.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has asked Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to respond with restraint to Israel's alleged killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, according to two senior Iranian sources.Ma Xiaolin, Dean of the Mediterranean Research Institute of Zhejiang International Studies University:“Iran is now an important non-treaty ally of Russia in the Middle East.Russia has more than $40 billion invested in Iran's energy sector and has built six nuclear power plants. If a war breaks out, all of Russia's initial investments will go down the drain."On August 5, Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu sent out a signal of "deepening strategic cooperation between the two sides" during his visit to Iran.Russia has pledged to provide Iran with advanced radar and air defense systems.Taiwan current affairs commentator Lai Yueqian:"Iran currently does not have powerful radars to detect Israeli and American stealth fighters.Therefore, for Russia, the best way to make up for Iran’s shortcomings is to provide it with powerful radars.”On August 13, Iran rejected the calls from the United States and other Western countries to abandon its military attack on Israel.It means taking revenge on one's "mortal enemy" without the need for "authorization" from others.Iran's retaliation is imminent, and the entire Israel is on high alert.Since the outbreak of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, many Israelis have joined the blood donation team. The blood will be provided to the Israeli military to treat soldiers injured on the battlefield.With Iranian retaliation looming, the blood center has also become a strategic location for Israel.Israel's National Blood Service claims to be able to withstand missile, biological and chemical attacks and is known as "the safest blood service in the world."Taiwan current affairs commentator Lai Yueqian:“Israel is certainly preparing for a long-term war.Because Israel has not had a ceasefire so far, whether it is with Hamas, Hezbollah in Lebanon, or conflicts with Syria, Israel even has a war with Yemen. "In addition to combat readiness and logistics, Israel is also studying various response plans for Iran's imminent retaliatory actions. According to Israeli media reports,The Israeli government even considered taking a preemptive strike against Iran.Ma Xiaolin, Dean of the Mediterranean Research Institute of Zhejiang International Studies University:“The purpose of taking the initiative is often to seize the initiative and catch the opponent off guard.This has happened many times in Israel’s history. In 1967, when Israel was facing a possible pincer attack from Egypt and Syria, it preemptively dispatched its air force.In the Third Middle East War in 1967,Israel completely defeated Egypt, Jordan and Syria.It occupied a total of more than 65,000 square kilometers of land, including the Gaza Strip, East Jerusalem, and the Golan Heights, and its territory expanded three times.However, experts also pointed out that whether Israel will take the lead in attacking Iran unexpectedly in this retaliationIt still depends on the intelligence.Taiwan current affairs commentator Lai Yueqian:"To launch a preemptive strike, we need accurate and sufficient intelligence to know which forces Iran will use and where to launch the attack.Preemptive strike is aggressive and offensiveThis is not a defensive spirit, this is not pacifism, this is aggressiveness.”While Israel is on high alert,Iran, which holds the initiative in this retaliatory action, has begun to deploy its troops.On August 6, the Iranian military announced that its air defense forces were updating equipment such as drones, radars and information collection systems, and that the military had also established an advanced electronic warfare center equipped with a defense system.
Taiwan current affairs commentator Lai Yueqian:“Drones are one of Iran's strengths, and Iran claims to have developed hypersonic missilesIf the missile is launched this time, it will prove that what Iran said was not just empty talk. "According to Iranian media reports, in April this year, during Iran's retaliation against Israel, the Iranian armed forces launched hypersonic missiles at Israel. Some American military experts bluntly stated,At least 7 missiles hit Israel's Nevatim Air Base, and they were not intercepted. These missiles passed through Iraq and hit Israel directly.Coincidentally, on the eve of this retaliatory action, Iran held a five-day military exercise in Kermanshah Province near the Iraqi border.The Popular Mobilization Forces, a Shiite militia in Iraq,Together with Lebanon's Hezbollah, Yemen's Houthi armed forces, Hamas and Syria, they formed a "resistance axis" with Iran as the core.What role they will play in Iran's revenge plan is also one of the focuses of outside attention.Under multiple attacks, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu admitted that Israel is in the dilemma of fighting on multiple fronts.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu:"Iran and its proxies seek to encircle us with terror on seven fronts. Their visible aggression is insatiable, but Israel is not helpless. We are determined to confront them on every front and in every arena, near and far."In the past, Iran has repeatedly used its allies in the "Axis of Resistance" to launch "proxy wars" against Israel. It was not until April this year that Iran directly attacked Israel for the first time.Will Iran’s revenge be carried out personally this time or will it continue the tradition of “proxy war”?
Taiwan current affairs commentator Lai Yueqian:"Iran is likely to act on its own or through proxies. There is a possibility that the five overseas armed groups will act simultaneously, or that Iran will also act jointly."Other analyses pointed out thatIran may coordinate with members of the "resistance axis" to launch air strikes from countries such as Syria, which are closer to Israel, shortening the flight time of drones and missiles while increasing the difficulty of interception.Lebanon, which is a military ally of Iran and cannot be underestimated, has also had a long-standing relationship with Israel. After Haniyeh was assassinated, a large number of Lebanese people took to the streets to express their dissatisfaction.
Dong Manyuan, researcher at the China Institute of International Studies:"The only group that can have a real impact on Israel is Hezbollah.Its military strength is far greater than that of Hamas.”Just one day before Haniya was killed in Iran,Israel killed Hezbollah's top commander Shukur, sparking revenge from Hezbollah and Iran.On August 4, Hezbollah in Lebanon fired dozens of Katyusha rockets at northern Israel. On August 12, Hezbollah in Lebanon announced that it had used multiple rockets to attack the military headquarters in northern Israel.According to Iranian media reports, Iran is also conducting secret diplomacy with the United States while carrying out its revenge operations, and may wait until after the ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Kazakhstan on August 15 before deciding on the intensity of its retaliation.Several senior Iranian officials revealed that only a ceasefire agreement in Gaza could delay Iran's retaliatory actions against Israel.Director: Liu Chunya, Li Wenhui, Li SiyuanToday’s video recommendation:
