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Text | Kaifeng

Marriage is not only a major event in life, but also a major event in the country.

Recently, the Ministry of Civil Affairs released statistics showing that in the first half of this year,Marriage Registration 3.43 million pairs, only about half of the same period in 2014.It hit a nearly ten-year low.

Whether to get married, when to get married, and whether to get divorced will not only affect the stability of the family and social structure, but will also affect future fertility trends and affect the population structure.

The number of marriages continued to decline, so the state took action.

01

Getting married is becoming easier and easier.

The recently released "Marriage Registration Regulations (Draft for Comments)" stipulates that, marriage registration and divorce registration no longer require household registration, and also abolished the previous regulations on territorial jurisdiction of registration.

This is the continuation ofThe 9-yuan marriage registration fee will be completely abolished in 2017This is the biggest revision to marriage registration regulations since the 1989

This means,Marriage registration will soon be available nationwide, which echoes the general trend of population mobility, and the traditional regional jurisdiction model is no longer appropriate.

andRemove the household registration restrictionIt is a further implementation of freedom of marriage and an inevitable development in the era of national networking of identity information.

The existence of household registration books is mainly to prevent bigamy and protect marriage rights. This was necessary in the pre-Internet era, but in the big data era, the ID card is enough to prove everything.

The household registration book has always been in the hands of parents. Once upon a time, a group of young peopleDue to parents' objection or high bride priceBecause of these problems, we had to break up, which ultimately became a regret.

In short, it is becoming easier and easier to get married. As long as both parties are willing, there will no longer be any family or social obstacles, and the policy attitude towards marriage is clearer than ever before.

While the threshold for marriage is getting lower and lower, divorce is not as easy as imagined.

According to reports, in conjunction with the Civil Code, the draft has added new provisions on30-day "divorce cooling-off period", "Concealment of a serious illness before marriage can annul the marriage" and other regulations, and specific provisions for the "divorce cooling-off period".

In other words, even if both parties agree to divorce, they still have to wait for a 30-day cooling-off period.If either party disagrees with the divorce during this period, they may apply to withdraw the divorce registration application.

Behind this, of course, is the origin of traditional concepts such as "It is better to demolish ten temples than to destroy a marriage", but more importantly, it is the concern of relevant parties that the number of divorces remains high.

Data shows that in the first half of this year, 3.43 million couples registered for marriage and 1.274 million couples registered for divorce nationwide, with the divorce-to-marriage ratio being 37.1%, an increase compared to last year.

It is worth noting that the divorce registration here only includes divorce by agreement, but does not include divorce by litigation, and the relevant data of the latter has not been disclosed yet.

From the official perspective, the introduction of the divorce cooling-off period has reversed the trend of rising divorce rates. In recent years, due to various factors, the number of divorces has indeed declined for a time.

But in the eyes of the public, the decline in the number of divorces is not without the influence of masks.The profound impact of the divorce cooling-off period on marriage freedom and willingness to marry, should not be underestimated.

02

Why do young people suddenly stop getting married?

At its peak, the number of marriages in our country exceeded 13 million each year, but now the lowest number is less than 7 million.

Over the past decade, except for last year's rebound in the number of marriages due to compensatory marriages after the epidemic, the number of marriages has basically been on a downward trend in other years.

The decline in the number of marriages is the result of a decrease in the number of young people of marriageable age, a postponement of the age of first marriage, a decline in the desire to marry, and the pressure of marriage and childbirth costs.

First, the young population is declining and the number of people of marriageable age is shrinking, which naturally leads to a decline in the number of marriages.

Generally speaking, the main age for marriage and childbearing is 18-45 years old, which corresponds to the population born around 1980-2006, roughly covering the three major generations of the post-80s, post-90s and post-00s.

Judging from the national birth trend, the birth rate has continued to decline since the 1980s, and the annual number of births has been declining from the peak of 25 million.

Since 2010, stimulated by the universal two-child and three-child policies, the number of births once rose, but has returned to a downward trend in recent years.

It is not difficult to see that as a group of people of marriageable age, the population size of those born in the 1980s, 1990s and early 2000s has shrunk significantly compared to those born in the 1960s and 1970s.

Second, young people’s willingness to get married has declined, while late marriage and late childbearing have become the norm, and the national average age of first marriage has been continuously postponed.

The declining desire to marry is a global phenomenon, especially in East Asian countries. In South Korea, there is a saying of the "three-abandonment" generation (no love, no marriage, no children), and Japan is the birthplace of the "super-single society."

The same is true in my country. In fact, not only is the willingness to marry declining, but even for those who are willing to get married, the age of marriage is constantly being postponed.

According to the seventh national census data, in 2020The average age of first marriage is 28.67 years oldCompared with 24.89 years old in 2010, the overall average age has been pushed back by nearly 4 years.

Taking 28 as the definition, those who are currently in the main marriage age range are almost all those born in the 1990s. The number of people in this group is more than 40 million less than that of those born in the 1980s.

Therefore, even if the marriage rate remains the same or even increases, and the age of marriage continues to move forward, the total number of marriages will be difficult to return to its historical high due to the decrease in the overall population of marriageable age.

Third, marriage and childbirth have costs, ranging from bride price to marriage and childbirth costs.

Marriage is certainly a combination of emotional fusion and spiritual collision, but in traditional society it also symbolizes reproduction and continuation of the family line.

But in modern society, everything has a cost, and economists have invented"The Economics of Marriage"concept.

The so-called marriage costs include material costs such as housing, education, childbirth, upbringing and even dowry, as well as time, energy and the opportunity cost of giving up the freedom of being single.

Not to mentionbride priceAs the first threshold of marriage, it blocks many people's path to advancement in life, and thehouse, and turned away countless people.

As forCost of childbirthIt is the focus of widespread social attention and the main direction of policy efforts.

In any case, if young people are unwilling to even get married, let alone have children, this is undoubtedly a more serious problem.

03

The number of marriages has hit a new low. Can the number of births rebound this year?

Recently, a piece of news that "my country's birth rate may see a small spring in 2024" has made the population issue a hot topic again.

Behind this conclusion,On the one hand, it is based on cultural factors. The Year of the Dragon is a good year for fertility.The thinking of "descendants of the dragon" and "wishing one's son to become a dragon" is expected to push up the annual number of births.

On the other hand, after experiencing the impact of masks in previous years, this year isCompensatory restoration of fertilityThis year, it is expected to take over some of the marriage and childbearing demands that were suppressed in previous years.

However, the number of marriages this year was lower than expected.As the number of marriages decreases, won’t the number of births this year be reversed?

The conclusion is that the birth population will rebound in the short term, but it will not affect the long-term trend.

The reason is,Pregnancy lasts for 9 months, and there is a time lag between the marriage date and the fertility cycleExcept for a few who get married because of pregnancy, the vast majority of marriages and childbirths occur in different years.

In other words, the number of births this year is basically determined by the number of marriages last year. Last year, with the help of compensatory marriages after the epidemic, the number of marriages saw a rare rebound.

so,There is a high probability that the number of births this year will see a slight reversal, but whether it can reach the 10 million mark again remains a question. (See "China, will the birth population rebound?")

From a long-term perspective, if the trend of marriage rates cannot be reversed, and the various factors affecting marriage and childbearing cannot be turned around, it will be difficult to truly reverse the birth rate.

Therefore, the staged upward trend of fertility isIt does not mean that the population situation has bottomed out, nor does it mean a complete reversal of the long-term trend.。

There is still a long way to go to boost the desire to get married and have children.