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On August 14, the three major A-share indices fluctuated throughout the day. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.6% at 2850.65 points, the Shenzhen Component Index closed down 1.17%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.42%.

In addition to the rise and fall of the index, the market has recently focused more on the shrinking trading volume of A-shares. On August 14, the total trading volume of the three markets of Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing was 480.186 billion yuan, and the trading volume has been below 500 billion yuan for three consecutive trading days. The trading volume in the past two days has been the lowest in the past five years.

Has the moment of "low volume and low price" arrived? Analysts interviewed by the China Times reporter said that as the A-share trading volume has continuously fallen below 500 billion yuan, the probability of the market bottoming out is increasing. In the absence of unexpected factors, it is likely that the market will not fall any more; but the fact that it will not fall any more does not mean that it will rise. The upward trend is dominated by buying power, and the current buying power is also sluggish and insufficient to drive a new round of rising market. In the short term, the broad-based index is likely to continue to fluctuate in a narrow range. The market will usher in a real turning point only after a new round of stimulus policies are introduced to boost market confidence.

AI glasses concept sector sets off a surge in daily price increases

On August 14, A-shares continued to adjust with reduced volume, and the three major indexes fluctuated and fell throughout the day. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.6% to 2850.65 points; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.17% to 8311 points; the ChiNext Index fell 1.42% to 1584.33 points; and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 fell 1.03% to 682.18 points.

Wind shows that as of the close of August 14, 1,368 stocks rose and 3,742 stocks fell.

Looking at the market, most of the 31 Shenwan first-level industry sectors fell, with only media and utilities rising slightly, while basic chemicals, steel and other industries had the largest declines; from the perspective of popular concepts, PTA and CRO concepts led the decline, while AI glasses concepts emerged as a dark horse, and gaming stocks also rebounded against the market trend.

Specifically, the AI ​​glasses concept sector has set off a daily limit surge.Shobe、Doctor glasses、Moonlight LensesAll of them received a "20cm daily limit",Rapoo Technology、Yidao Information、Longqi TechnologyWaiting for the "10cm daily limit"; in terms of game stocks,Fuchun SharesUp 14.96%Caesar CultureUp 10.08%Mingchen HealthUp 9.99%.

CITIC Securities believes that AI smart glasses, as wearable devices, bring epoch-making high efficiency to consumers at a low cost. They are currently recognized by the industry as the most cost-effective hardware implementation solution for AI. They have huge potential. 2024 is a critical turning point in the field of AI smart glasses.

A-share trading volume hits five-year low

The reporter found that compared with the rise and fall of the index, the market paid more attention to the trading volume. As of the close of August 14, the Shanghai Stock Exchange's trading volume was 207.458 billion yuan, and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's trading volume was 269.996 billion yuan.

According to Wind statistics, the total transaction volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing stock markets from August 12 to August 14 this week was 498.657 billion yuan, 479.877 billion yuan and 480.186 billion yuan respectively. The transaction volume has been below 500 billion yuan for three consecutive trading days.

What does it mean that the total transaction volume of A-shares is 500 billion yuan? The reporter found that the last time the transaction volume was below 500 billion yuan was in May 2020, and the transaction volume in the past two days hit a new low since August 28, 2019. In other words, the current transaction volume is the lowest in the past five years.

In fact, since August, the turnover of A-shares has been below 800 billion yuan. Why is the turnover shrinking? Many analysts told reporters that the market does lack confidence in the fundamentals, and some investors self-deprecatingly say they "don't want to play anymore." Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund, told the China Times reporter that many investors have stopped trading and the market's activity needs to be improved urgently.

Under the "low volume" of trading volume, the reporter found that the stocks with good growth also had high trading volume. Among the top ten stocks in terms of trading volume on August 14, only Zhongji Xuchuan fell. The stock with the highest trading volume in the entire market was Industrial Foxconn, which closed up 2.89% at 21.38 yuan per share due to its good semi-annual report; Shanghai Belling, which ranked second in terms of trading volume, closed up 5.81%. In addition, Xiangxue Pharmaceutical, King Long Automobile, and NavInfo, which had high trading volume, all saw increases of more than 6%.

Analysts are cautious about "land prices"

"Land volume" is here, will "land price" be far behind? Xue Hongyan, deputy director of Xingtu Financial Research Institute, told the reporter of China Times that the extremely low market trading volume indicates that both buying and selling forces are not active. Since the downward trend is dominated by selling forces, the gradual exhaustion of selling forces can be regarded as a signal of slowing down the downward trend.

Xue Hongyan suggested that for investors, the current market is still a good window for layout and buying, and they should hold on patiently after buying and wait for changes to occur. From the perspective of the time window, the probability of a new round of policies being introduced within the next month is high, and the market is not far from the real turning point.

A securities firm strategy analyst told the China Times reporter that "land volume" is not a sufficient condition for "land price", but a necessary condition. He believes that it may be more important to pay attention to changes in fundamental expectations.

Yang Delong believes that it is difficult to achieve a significant reversal of the market relying on the market's own strength at present, and that external forces are needed to reverse the market's downturn. He calls on the national team to increase its efforts to enter the market.

Zheshang SecuritiesA research report recently pointed out that A-shares have entered the bottoming period of the mid-line, but the formation of the bottom will not happen overnight, but may last for some time; before the real mid-line big market starts, the market will most likely show a range-bound fluctuation trend of "support below and pressure above".

Zheshang Securities suggests that in terms of allocation, considering that the downward space of the main broad-based index is very limited, there is no need to worry about the mid-term position, and the current position can still be maintained, and the allocation can be increased when the index challenges the lower edge of the range; but for short-term positions, it is recommended to operate from the perspective of range fluctuations, and enter and exit quickly to make good spreads. Considering that a considerable number of individual stocks have been fully adjusted, after entering the bottoming period, individual stocks can be selected based on the composite conditions of "sufficient decline in the previous period + recent trend stabilization + fundamental improvement", and "light on the index and heavy on the individual stocks" appropriately.

Editor-in-charge: Ma Xiaochao Editor-in-chief: Xia Shencha