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althoughCPIThe data was lower than expected, but the market seemed slightly disappointed with it. Did the expectation of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in September go down the drain?

U.S. inflation slowed for a fourth straight month in July, keeping the Federal Reserve on track to cut interest rates next month.

The CPI data released on Wednesday showed that the annual rate of the US CPI in July was2.9%，The fourth consecutive month of decline，This is the first time that the number has returned to the "20s" since March 2021, which was 3% lower than the market expectation.The monthly rate was 0.2%, in line with market expectations; the unadjusted core CPI annual rate in July was 3.2%, falling for the fourth consecutive month, the lowest level since April 2021, and the monthly rate was 0.2%, both in line with market expectations.

After the data was released,Spot gold rose rapidly in the short term by nearly $10, and then fell back, with short-term fluctuations of nearly $15.; The U.S. dollar index fluctuated more than 20 points in the short term; non-U.S. currencies generally fell, with the euro falling 30 points against the U.S. dollar in the short term; the pound fell more than 30 points against the U.S. dollar in the short term.

Analyst Chris Anstey said it is worth noting that the annual rate of U.S. CPI inflation in July has now fallen below 3%, the lowest level since inflation first ignited in the spring of 2021. The initial market volatility was not large, and the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield is currently up more than 4 basis points, showing that some people are disappointed that inflation data has not become more subdued.

After this data was released,Interest rate traders reduced their bets on a 50 basis point rate cut at the Fed's September meeting, with expectations for a cut of about 33 basis points, compared with expectations of 37 basis points yesterday.

Adam Button, an analyst at financial website Forexlive, said that the market's pricing for the Fed's rate cut this year has dropped from 106 basis points before the data was released to 103 basis points. This is a slightly hawkish reaction.Indicating that the market has already priced in more downside surprises"Nevertheless, the unrounded inflation figures are better than the headline figures."

With the economy slowly slowing, inflation still generally trending downward and the job market weak, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to start cutting interest rates next month, and the extent of the cuts will likely depend on more incoming data.

Ahead of their September meeting, officials will have more inflation data as well as another nonfarm payrolls report, which will be closely scrutinized after disappointing July payrolls sparked a sell-off in global markets and heightened recession fears.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues have recently signaled they will focus more on full employment as part of their dual mandate, a point they are likely to emphasize next week at their annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.