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[Text/Observer Network Yan Shanshan] The Paris Olympic flame has been extinguished, and the "Olympic political truce" called for by French President Macron has also ended. He has to once again face the reality of the ruling coalition's defeat in the second round of voting in the National Assembly, and appoint a new prime minister and form a new government as soon as possible.

According to a report by Le Monde on August 13, some people in Macron's camp expect him to start consultations on August 19 and hope that he will announce the new prime minister candidate as early as next week so that the new government can prepare a budget plan to submit to the EU before October. The European Commission previously announced that it would launch an "excessive deficit procedure" for seven countries including France whose budget deficits far exceed 3%.

The British Daily Telegraph also gave a similar time node. The report quoted Macron's assistant as saying that Macron might appoint a new prime minister shortly after the 80th anniversary of the Allied landing in Provence on August 17.

Political commentators say that if Macron fails to form a stable governing coalition in the coming months, he will likely have to dissolve parliament again in June next year (he will have to wait a year) and call new parliamentary elections.

Time is of the essence

Previously, due to the crushing defeat of France's ruling Ennahda Party in the European Parliament elections in early June, Macron announced on June 9 the dissolution of the National Assembly and the holding of early National Assembly elections.

In the subsequent election, the left-wing coalition "New Popular Front" won 193 seats, ranking first; the centrist coalition "Together" led by Macron won 166 seats, ranking second; the far-right coalition party National Rally led by Marine Le Pen ranked third with 142 seats. French Prime Minister Attal announced on the evening of July 7 that he would submit his resignation.

As the New People's Front won fewer seats than the 289 required for an absolute majority, the Daily Telegraph said there was no sign that any party could piece together a governing coalition that could withstand a vote of no confidence.

On the evening of July 23, Macron rejected the prime minister candidate nominated by the Left Alliance - the unknown senior civil servant, 37-year-old Lucie Castets, on the grounds that a caretaker government needed to continue to perform its duties during the Paris Olympics to avoid "chaos" and "we need to concentrate on hosting the Olympics before mid-August."

Macron said at the time that the question to consider was not who to nominate, but how to form a majority in the National Assembly.

This statement caused dissatisfaction among the left-wing coalition. Jean-Michel Mélenchon, chairman of the far-left party "France Indomitable", said: "The president refuses to accept the election results and tries to... force us to abandon our own program and ally with him. This is impossible."

There is no set date for the appointment of a new prime minister, but some in Macron's camp hope to resolve the matter next week as they are already stretched thin and have to deal with a budget deficit.

On July 26, the European Commission confirmed that the fiscal deficits of seven member states, including France, Italy, Hungary, Belgium, Malta, Poland and Slovakia, were too high. According to relevant regulations, the EU initiated excessive deficit procedures against the above seven countries, requiring them to take measures to reduce the deficit level.

France will present a budget plan starting in September, outlining the future course of public finances. French Economy and Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said that in order to meet the budget deficit target, another 20 billion euros will need to be saved by 2025.

France's budget deficit accounted for 5.5% of GDP in 2023 and is expected to reach 5% in 2025, far above the EU's 3% threshold.

France's Le Monde mentioned that if the new prime minister candidate can be announced next week, the new government will be able to quickly start working on the budget plan. The plan must be ready by the end of September and submitted to the French National Assembly for deliberation no later than October 1.

In addition, France also has to submit a medium-term plan by September 20 to explain how it intends to meet its budget deficit targets. These key deadlines mean that France urgently needs to form a new government.

But others believe that time is running out for parties and parliamentary groups, who still need to consider different options and possible coalitions.

"We've spent too much time on 'casting' and not enough time thinking about 'why', which is the only way out of the deadlock," said one outgoing minister.

He is convinced that Macron is in no hurry to end the "truce".

Throughout the Olympics, Macron shuttled between Paris and the presidential resort on the Riviera, sometimes visiting competition sites to support French athletes and sometimes on a yacht.

He has been criticised for his sporadic leave, with French newspaper Le Figaro dubbing him a "temporary worker at the Elysee Palace".

But Macron's team said he remained at the helm, keeping an eye on the Olympics while also focusing on international affairs, including the situation in the Middle East.

Potential candidates

Xavier Bertrand, the governor of the Hauts-de-France region in northern France, is considered one of the candidates for prime minister. He belongs to the center-right Republican Party and has a "social right" image. He also served as Minister of Labor, Employment and Health in the Sarkozy government. Bertrand has previously criticized Britain for turning a blind eye to the black economy and acting as a "magnet" for illegal immigration.

Another potential candidate is Michel Barnier, a Gaullist and former EU chief negotiator for Brexit.

In addition, Jean-Louis Borloo, a member of the centrist party "Union of Democrats and Independents" and former Minister of Ecology, Energy, Sustainable Development and the Sea, and Bernard Cazeneuve, who served as Prime Minister in Hollande's government, are both considered potential candidates.

Macron's aides told French daily L'Opinion that there were two key criteria for candidates for prime minister: they had to be business-friendly and not someone close to Macron to reflect the fact that "Macron lost."

The Daily Telegraph said that if Macron did not let the left take power, they threatened to hold demonstrations after the summer vacation. But Macron's aides said that Macron still believes that France is a right-wing country and that Macron is looking for someone who "has no personal ambitions at the end of his career and can break the current divisions between the three major camps in parliament."

According to the French constitution, the prime minister must be nominated by the president. In theory, Macron can decide who will be the prime minister and he is not legally bound by the election results, but because the National Assembly has the power to force the government to resign through a motion of no confidence, according to convention, the prime minister must meet the wishes of the majority in parliament.

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