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Text | Xiaoyin

Both Russia and Ukraine confirmed that the Ukrainian army8moon6Japan invaded the Kursk region of Russia.8moon10On the day, the Russian National Anti-Terrorism Committee announced that a counter-terrorist action system would be implemented in Belgorod, Kursk and Bryansk regions.

since2022Year2Since Russia launched a "special military operation" against Ukraine in February, it wanted to quickly disarm the Zelensky administration in Kiev, but it failed to achieve a quick victory and had to adjust its strategy. Now Russia claims that it is fighting a "special military operation to defend Donbass." Will it start a "special military operation to defend Russia" next?

What is the significance of such a counterattack for Ukraine? Reference News quoted the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) said that sending troops into Russia was "counterintuitive" in Ukraine, where human resources are tight.

The Russian Ministry of Defense released the picture. Photo: CCTV News

Xiaoyin wants to say, no matter what, what is unexpected is——

The first big question is, how many troops did Ukraine send to participate in this military operation?

According to Russia,8moon10On the day, the Ukrainian army had suffered losses in the Kursk region1100Many soldiers and140Armored vehicle.

The Ukrainian war report first claimed that300Ukrainian troops broke into Russian territory, and then said that in fact there were1000People around.

If we compare the Russian and Ukrainian war reports, doesn't that mean that the Russian army has completely wiped out the Ukrainian troops that entered Russian territory?

In fact, there are reports that Ukrainian troops are approaching Russia's Kursk Nuclear Power Plant.

The Russian military launched a thermobaric bombSu-34Fighter

Xiaoyin believes that what we have seen is nothing more than the battle reports of the two armies. It is unknown whether the Russian side has exaggerated. The Ukrainian side initially described the scale of the offensive as300The Ukrainian army has underreported the scale of its operations, with the intention of tactically deceiving the Russian side. The actual number of Ukrainian troops entering Russia is probably far more than1000Even though Russia claims to have eliminated1100The Ukrainian army, the actual combat force of Ukraine in Russia is probably more than1000Otherwise, they cannot get closer to the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant. The Ukrainian army claimed to have occupied the important border town of Suja in Kursk. The local authorities of Suja denied this, saying only that there was harassment by the Ukrainian army. In fact, in Xiaoyin's opinion, whether it is "occupation" or "harassment", continuous logistical support is needed behind it.

We also need to see the military means used by Russia——

At present, the Russian side claims that it has used thermobaric bombs against Ukrainian troops in Kursk.You know, thermobaric bombs are second only tonuclear weaponA conventional bomb. The explosion caused by it can cause a large area of ​​the surrounding area to be deprived of oxygen instantly, resulting in the death of those hit by shrapnel or those not hit by it due to lack of oxygen. In short, there is no grass left. From the Russian claim that they have evacuated, it can be seen that there is a high possibility that the Ukrainian army entered the no-man's land after the Russian clearing of the land, and then encountered a thermobaric bomb attack.

The Russian side released a drone shot of the bombing of the Ukrainian military command post

There are also reports that Russia used Iskander missiles to attack the Ukrainian military command post in the border area of ​​Kursk Oblast.You know, the "Iskander" is also a big one. Since the Ukrainian army has such a large command post in Kursk Oblast, it can be inferred that the scale of the Ukrainian troops entering Russia is also not small.

There are also reports that the Russian Aerospace Forces bombed some Ukrainian military targets in the Sumy region of Ukraine because this area is the only way for the Ukrainian army to enter the Kursk Oblast of Russia and a place for the transfer of supplies.

The second biggest question,NATOWas it known in advance?

According to Sabrina Singh, Deputy Press Secretary of the U.S. Department of Defense,8moon8In a public defense on the 14th, the United States believed that the Ukrainian army's entry into Russia was "in line with the basic policy of the United States." Singh also added: "From the beginning, we have supported Ukraine to help them resist cross-border attacks and retaliate if necessary. They are taking measures to resist attacks."

Singh's statement is the same as what Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Serski said when reporting to Ukrainian President Zelensky. Serski said that the Ukrainian army's entry into Kursk was a "defense."

It can be seen that both Singh and Serski are creating an atmosphere that the Ukrainian army is launching an "offensive defense."

Singh

However, White House spokeswoman Karen Jean-Pierre had previously explicitly refused to acknowledge that the United States knew about Ukraine's combat plan in advance.

In other words, from the US side, the White House spokesperson andPentagonThe deputy press secretaries gave different statements.

The situation in the United States is that

The presidential election is underway. Currently, Harris of the Democratic Party and Trump of the Republican Party are fighting fiercely. It is questionable what the situation is between US President Biden and the Pentagon. To understand this, we only need to look at how Mark Milley, then Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US Army, ignored Trump, the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, at the end of the last US President's term.

The third question, and the most important one, is whether Russia will use nuclear weapons?

According to Russian domestic law, once Russia is attacked, Russia can use atomic bombs to strike its opponents. After the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, especially after Russia incorporated the four eastern Ukrainian states into the Russian Federation through "referendum to Russia", at least from Russia's perspective, the four eastern Ukrainian states and Crimea belong to Russia.

However, Russia did not use atomic bombs against Ukraine because of Ukraine's attacks on these places.

Although these places belong to Russia in Russia's eyes, from the perspective of international recognition, both Crimea and the four eastern Ukrainian states are Ukrainian territories. In this case, Russia dare not act rashly!

The Ukrainian army released footage of its operations in Kursk Oblast. Photo: CCTV News

Kursk Oblast is different. It has always been an integral part of the Russian Federation. Now, foreign troops dare to invade. So, does Russia have the courage to drop an atomic bomb on the Ukrainian army?

In fact, the "Iskander" missiles currently launched at the Ukrainian military command post are capable of carrying nuclear warheads!

However, Xiaoyin believes that Russia will not use nuclear weapons for the time being, and will not use nuclear weapons against Ukrainian troops in Kursk, nor is it likely to launch nuclear weapons into Ukraine. On the contrary, NATO countries should be more careful!

After all, the size of the Ukrainian troops entering Kursk is not enough for the Russian regular forces to deal with. Moreover, this is the Russian mainland, and there is no need for the Russian side to pollute the mainland.

Russia has always considered Ukraine as its "sphere of influence" and even believes that Ukraine and Russia have a special relationship. In other words, they are at least half of their own family, but the Ukrainian authorities are not listening to Russia now. Moreover, there are indeed many Russian families with Ukrainian relatives. For example, Serski is actually a native Russian. His parents still live in Russia and support Russia's "special military operations." Russia is even considering Ukraine's post-war reconstruction.

All signs indicate that Russia will not use nuclear weapons against Ukraine.

But what would happen if someone in a NATO country jumped a little higher and Russia claimed that NATO soldiers had infiltrated the Ukrainian army and regarded this as declaring war on Russia?