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According to HuashanInfectAccording to the official microblog, recently, many netizens on social platforms said that they were "positive again", and some had symptoms such as fever, cough, and body aches. What is the current COVID-19 infection monitoring data? What is the reason for the fluctuation in the number of COVID-19 infection cases? This article will show you how!

Recent data on fever clinics and novel coronavirus infection monitoring

Recently, the China Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released the national novel coronavirus infection epidemic situation from July 1 to July 31, 2024. According to relevant monitoring data, the number of patients treated in fever clinics (examination rooms) in 31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps has slightly decreased from 125,000 on July 1 to 92,000 on July 31, which has not yet reached the peak of new crown visits in my country's autumn and winter season (February-March) (about 210,000).

In July, the proportion of influenza-like cases in outpatient (emergency) department visits in sentinel hospitals across the country decreased slightly, fluctuating between 4.4-5%, which is also a certain degree lower than the 9.1% proportion of visits during the autumn and winter epidemic season in my country.

Source: China Center for Disease Control and Prevention official website

The proportion of COVID-19 and other respiratory infectious diseases

According to the National Center for Infectious Diseases' in-hospital case monitoring in seven major regions across the country, among adolescent and pediatric patients aged less than 14 years,pneumoniaMycoplasma still has the highest positive ratePathogens, the new coronavirus is currently the second most positive pathogen. Among patients aged ≥14 years, the new coronavirus is currently the most positive pathogen, followed by respiratory pathogens such as Mycoplasma pneumoniae and Haemophilus influenzae.

These data suggest that the proportion of viral infections such as influenza has decreased in summer, while the number of people infected with the new coronavirus has increased and the proportion has increased.

During this period, the positive rate of new coronavirus in influenza-like cases nationwide increased, from 8.9% from July 1 to July 7 to 18.7% from July 22 to July 28. The main prevalent strains were all Omicron variants, and the main ones in my country were JN.1 series variants and XDV series variants.

Source: China Center for Disease Control and Prevention official website

The monitoring platform of the National Center for Infectious Diseases monitored the mutation and fluctuation of the new coronavirus Omicron strain and showed that XDV.1 and KP.2 have been gradually detected since early June, and the proportion of XDV.1 has gradually increased to 40-50%, but these mutant strains have not caused an increase in severe cases.

Data from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention show that in terms of severe illness and deaths, compared with 358 and 588 new severe infections in February (the rising phase) and March, there were 203 new severe cases in July during the rising phase of this round of epidemic, and there was no significant increase in the number of severe cases.

Expert Comments

Reasons for the fluctuations in the number and proportion of COVID-19 cases

Professor Zhang Wenhong

Director of the National Center for Infectious Diseases

Huashan Hospital Affiliated to Fudan University

Director of Infectious Diseases

The global novel coronavirus infection has entered a similar range of volatility. Taking the United States as an example, it has experienced three new crown epidemics since August 2023, basically alternating in a cycle of May-June. The main reasons for the epidemic are the mutation of the strain (JN.1 at the end of 2023, KP.3 recently) and the stagedimmunityThe cross-mixing of barrier attenuation caused it. Similar to the situation in my country, the overall ICU hospitalization rate due to COVID-19 in the United States remained stable at a level of <20%, with no obvious upward trend since 2022.

The periodic fluctuation characteristics are related to the mutation of the virus strain and the fluctuation of the strength of the immune barrier at different stages. According to the current monitoring results of the three new crown fluctuations in May, August 2023 and February 2024, due to the continuous mutation of the virus strain and the periodic attenuation of the immune barrier, the new coronavirus has become similar to respiratory infectious diseases such as influenza, and has gradually become a periodic respiratory disease in my country, but the severity of the disease has remained relatively stable.

Currently, the new coronavirus infection is in an upward stage in July, but according to the overall trend, the overall number of patients seeking medical treatment for this infection is still lower than the peak in autumn and winter last year, and will not cause a serious disease burden on current medical resources and population.

Editor: Deng Shuhong