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The latest announcement from the Federal Reserve!

2024-08-10

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On Friday, August 9, local time, the three major U.S. stock indices closed higher. As of the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.13%, the Nasdaq rose 0.51%, and the S&P 500 rose 0.47%.

The Federal Reserve on Friday released a tentative schedule for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings in January 2025, 2026 and 2027. The Fed is sticking with its traditional schedule of eight meetings per year.

In addition, major European indices closed higher, with Germany's DEX30 up 0.24%, Britain's FTSE 100 up 0.28%, France's CAC40 up 0.31%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 up 0.14%. In other markets, most U.S. Treasury yields closed lower, and international oil prices rose collectively.

The three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher

On August 9, local time, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher. As of the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 51.05 points, or 0.13%, to 39,497.54 points; the Nasdaq rose 85.28 points, or 0.51%, to 16,745.30 points; and the S&P 500 rose 24.85 points, or 0.47%, to 5,344.16 points.

The S&P 500 fell 0.04% this week, its fourth consecutive week of decline - its longest losing streak since September 2023.

Wall Street's "fear index" - the VIX - retreated further on Friday, hovering around 20 after an unprecedented surge on Monday to over 65, a rare level that typically signals outright panic. The unusual surge raised some questions about whether the index was actually "exaggerating" all the stress in the U.S. stock market.

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers urged the Securities and Exchange Commission and exchanges to investigate Monday's historic spike in the most watched financial volatility gauge in the U.S. "My understanding is that there was some kind of artificial volatility in the VIX on Monday because of some illiquid instruments that are taken into account in the calculation of the VIX," Summers said Friday. After Monday's spike in the VIX, experts who measure volatility said the sharp move in the index could be caused by several technical factors, including an apparent lack of liquidity, some short covering on failed volatility bets, or simply the way volatility is measured.

Bank of America's Hartnett believes the turmoil has not yet reached a level that would raise concerns about a hard landing for the economy. "The technical level that would turn from a soft landing to a hard landing has not been broken," Hartnett said. He added: "The investor feedback is 'exhaustion', but expectations of Fed rate cuts mean that the market plunge has not ended people's preference for stocks over bonds."

In addition, the Federal Reserve on Friday released a tentative schedule for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings in January 2025, 2026 and 2027. The Fed is sticking with its traditional schedule of eight meetings per year. The FOMC statement will be released at 2 p.m. ET on the second day of the meeting, followed by a press conference with the Fed chairman at 2:30 p.m.

(FOMC meeting tentative schedule. Source: Federal Reserve)

In other markets, most U.S. Treasury yields closed lower, with the 2-year Treasury yield up 1.3 basis points to 4.061%, the 3-year Treasury yield down 0.3 basis points to 3.882%, the 5-year Treasury yield down 3 basis points to 3.805%, the 10-year Treasury yield down 5 basis points to 3.946%, and the 30-year Treasury yield down 6 basis points to 4.222%.

International oil prices rose collectively. The September contract of U.S. oil rose 1.04% to $76.98 per barrel, up 3.83% for the week; the October contract of Brent oil rose 0.67% to $79.69 per barrel, up 3.75% for the week.

International precious metal futures closed with mixed gains and losses. COMEX gold futures rose 0.3% to $2,470.6 per ounce, up 0.03% for the week; COMEX silver futures fell 0.24% to $27.54 per ounce, down 3.99% for the week.

Eli Lilly, the leader in weight loss drugs, continues to rise; the U.S. Department of Justice may force Google to divest Android

In terms of sectors, all 11 sectors of the S&P 500 index closed higher, with the information technology sector leading the gains with a 3.31% increase, while the communications services and industrial sectors rose by 2.41% and 2.36% respectively.

Popular technology stocks rose and fell. Eli Lilly rose more than 5%, Broadcom, Meta, TSMC, Apple, Micron Technology, and Google A rose more than 1%, Microsoft, Amazon, Tesla, and Netflix rose slightly, Nvidia, AMD, Qualcomm, Texas Instruments, and Cisco fell slightly, Arm, AMD Semiconductor, and ASML fell more than 1%, and Intel fell more than 3%.

Tesla rose 0.58%. On Friday, Graham Carroll, business development director for Tesla's electric semi-trailer truck Semi project, said the company is "taking steps to bring Semi to Europe". Tesla is recruiting for the position of "Business Development Director - Semi Truck EMEA (Amsterdam or Berlin)". According to the job description, the position is responsible for establishing/maintaining customer relationships and developing plans for Tesla's future Semi truck deployments.

Separately, U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren has asked Tesla's board to investigate whether CEO Elon Musk is using the electric car maker's resources to benefit other companies he owns and operates. In a 10-page letter sent Thursday to Tesla Chairman Robin Denholm, the Democratic senator said Musk's actions, such as transferring computer chips from Tesla to his social media company X, may be inappropriate. Musk confirmed in June that he would divert artificial intelligence chips ordered for Tesla to X and xAI, saying they would otherwise remain in the warehouse. Warren believes that transferring the chips may be a "misappropriation of company resources" and said that creating xAI itself is an "inevitable conflict of interest" for Musk.

Eli Lilly rose 5.49%, and this week's cumulative increase was 10.84%. Pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly released its second-quarter earnings report on the 8th. The company achieved revenue of US$11.3028 billion in the second quarter, a year-on-year increase of 36%; net profit was US$2.967 billion, a year-on-year increase of 68%; earnings per share were US$3.28, compared with US$1.95 in the same period last year; the full-year revenue forecast range for 2024 was raised by US$3 billion to US$45.4 billion-46.6 billion. After the financial report was released, Eli Lilly's US stocks soared by more than 12% before the market opened. Eli Lilly's performance achieved unexpected growth mainly due to strong sales of the weight loss drug Zepbound and the diabetes drug Mounjaro. Eli Lilly previously stated that part of the reason for the upward guidance was that the expansion path for Zepbound, Mounjaro and similar drugs in the second half of this year was "clearer."

Google A rose 1.01%. A U.S. federal district judge ruled that Google violated the law by monopolizing the online search market. The litigation process will now enter the second phase, where the court will determine what kind of punishment Google needs to face for violating antitrust laws. Lawyers following the case said that in the next phase, U.S. Department of Justice lawyers may seek to hinder Google's efforts to dominate the next generation of search technology (conversational artificial intelligence) and make it easier for other search service providers to erode Google's 95% market share. Gene Burroughs, former assistant general counsel of Microsoft, said that U.S. Department of Justice lawyers will almost certainly ask the judge to take "structural remedies", such as forcing Google to divest the Android system, rather than just requiring Google to make "behavioral changes" in the way it operates its search business and its partnerships with companies such as Apple.

Intel fell 3.81%. Intel postponed the Innovation Expo originally scheduled for next month in San Jose, California, due to financial pressure. The decision was made after issuing disappointing sales forecasts and cutting dividends. Intel said on Friday that it would focus on other activities such as webinars, hackathons and AI summits instead. The Innovation Expo is one of CEO Kissinger's strategies to restore Intel's technological advantage and industry influence, and such activities have become a bellwether for the computer industry.

Cisco fell 0.79%. According to Reuters, Cisco plans a second round of layoffs this year, with more than 1,000 jobs to be laid off. The network equipment maker is shifting its focus to faster-growing business areas such as cybersecurity and artificial intelligence. In February, Cisco laid off about 4,000 employees due to a slowdown in corporate technology spending. Cisco's move is similar to technology companies such as Intel and Dell, which have also cut positions in response to uneven demand. The latest layoffs could be announced as early as next Wednesday when the company reports fourth-quarter results. Three months ago, Cisco's optimistic forecast raised hopes that IT customers would increase spending again. But the entire technology industry has recently been affected by concerns about the economy and the idea that spending on artificial intelligence may not pay off in the short term.

Netflix rose 0.57%. Netflix announced on Friday that this Christmas, Netflix will cooperate with Paramount's CBS Sports to broadcast two National Football League (NFL) games. This is the first time that Netflix has obtained the live broadcast rights of one of the world's largest sports leagues and broadcast football events on its platform. CBS has the terrestrial television broadcasting rights in the cities where the participating teams are located, and the NFL's streaming service NFL+ will provide live broadcasts of the games to mobile device users in the United States. This marks the beginning of a three-season exclusive cooperation agreement between Netflix and the NFL. The NFL is the most watched sports league in the United States, and this year's Super Bowl attracted a record 123.7 million American viewers.

TSMC rose 1.56%. On Friday, TSMC announced its latest monthly results. Thanks to strong demand for AI and price increase expectations, TSMC's sales in July were NT$256.95 billion, a year-on-year increase of 44.7% and a month-on-month increase of 23.6%. So far this year, sales have reached NT$1,523.107 billion, a year-on-year increase of 30.5%.

Morgan Stanley believes that TSMC's valuation is more attractive after the recent sell-off. The agency recently listed TSMC as its top pick. Morgan Stanley analyst Charlie wrote in a report that in the long-term semiconductor down cycle, we are optimistic about TSMC's quality and defensiveness. Confirmation of price increases and continued strength in artificial intelligence (AI) capital expenditures should be key catalysts (for TSMC).

Most financial stocks closed higher. Mizuho Financial rose more than 2%, American Express and Deutsche Bank rose more than 1%, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, U.S. Bancorp, Travelers Insurance, Capital One Financial, Mastercard, Bank of America, Visa, UBS, BlackRock, and Morgan Stanley rose slightly, while AIG, Citigroup, and Regional Financial fell slightly.

Energy stocks were mixed. Imperial Oil rose nearly 1%, ExxonMobil, Shell, BP, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Duke Energy, Petrobras, and Marathon Oil rose slightly, Murphy Oil, Occidental Petroleum, Schlumberger, and Apache Oil fell slightly, and American Energy fell more than 1%.

Most of the popular Chinese stocks fell, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index falling 0.96%. Bilibili fell 5%, Tencent Music fell more than 4%, Xpeng Motors fell nearly 3%, New Oriental fell more than 2%, Baidu, Manbang, iQiyi, Vipshop, and Weilai fell more than 1%, Futu Holdings, Alibaba, and JD fell slightly, Weibo closed flat, Pinduoduo, Huya, Li Auto, and NetEase rose slightly, and Douyu rose more than 1%.

Editor: Zhu Yumeng

Proofreading: Liu Xingying

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