news

한어Русский языкEnglishFrançaisIndonesianSanskrit日本語DeutschPortuguêsΕλληνικάespañolItalianoSuomalainenLatina

Follow the official account, Xifeng Compass, to read the full text "Great changes are coming, what else can we do?"

Write a movie, the controversial "Reverse Life".

Obviously, it failed to replicate the myth of the God of Medicine. I think this should be due to the following three points.

1. Xu Zheng plays a 45-year-old laid-off programmer from a large factory who renewed his mortgage by becoming the king of takeout orders in a short period of time.

This is not reliable.

There are many deliverymen in the movie, including a single mother, a father in need, and a younger brother who has a broken leg and has to compete for the title of deliveryman. Every family has its own problems and every family has a reason to make money.

But one thing is impossible.

The screenwriter can make Xu Zheng go from a novice to a single king in a short period of time, from having his salary deducted every month and receiving dozens of bad reviews to earning more than 15,000 yuan a month, so is it possible to make everyone a single king?

Among the couriers, there are rookie, bronze, gold, diamond, and single king. This is a pyramid sequence.

It doesn’t mean that you can become the single king if you meet certain standards, but there can only be one single king in a takeaway station.

2. While Xu Zheng was working, he also developed a small program that marked nearby shortcuts. As described in the movie, it made things convenient for everyone, and everyone was happy and it was a win-win situation.

In fact, we all know that this is ineffective.

If one person works hard to improve the score, then everyone works hard, which can only improve the score line. If every courier is 10 minutes faster, you will find that the structure of the pyramid has not changed.

Bronze is 10 minutes faster, but Gold is also 10 minutes faster, so you are still Bronze, even though you used the program developed by Xu Zheng and even though you are faster.

3. Xu Zheng’s acceptance speech for becoming the King of Singles was to ask everyone to be careful and not be hit by a truck like he was.

What is the truth? Xu Zheng plays the former programmer who graduated from Tongji University and is an algorithm engineer. He should know the law of large numbers.

Car accidents may be a low-probability event, less than one in ten thousand. But what if you are on the road every day?

Especially if you use the mini-program developed by Xu Zheng to take shortcuts and speed up delivery of orders, what will happen if you travel on the road more often every day?

It will turn a low-probability event into an inevitable event.

Because you keep crossing the road and walking by the river, your shoes will get wet sooner or later.

Can this be solved by just saying "pay attention to safety"?

Of course we understand the crew, because this problem has no solution. Since there is no plan, all we can say is that everyone has to work hard.

Although everyone knows that if everyone works together, it will only raise the threshold of effort.

If you insist on looking for a solution from a macro perspective, there is actually no long-term solution, although there are short-term solutions.

It is hoped that the expansion of the third sheet will take on the debt pressure of the first two sheets and accelerate the repair process of the balance sheet, especially of the household sector.

In simple terms, it means throwing money around. Don't count on throwing money at the production end to boost exports as we did before. Instead, throw money directly to the consumption end, based on the number of people. For every 1,000 spent, you can get a direct subsidy of 500. It's more generous. Anyway, if you don't spend it in the current period, it will be gone after the expiration date.

This can boost consumption in a short period of time and give businesses the motivation to hire people, produce, and invest.

You can do this for three to five years, but you can't expect to rely on it for ten to eight years.

So if we don’t consider the macro level, but focus on the micro level, focusing on the family played by Xu Zheng in the movie.

They actually made too many mistakes themselves.

The family in the movie moved into a bigger house, had high leverage, and had to pay off the mortgage for many years, but they had no savings.

The family’s combined savings can’t even pay two months’ mortgage.

Why? To use the words in the movie, everyone went to buy P2P, and then the thunder broke out.

Even so, she is still a full-time housewife, her parents are old, and there is no need for her daughter to go to an international school.

Moreover, the programmer played by Xu Zheng is 45 years old and is just a team leader.

When I watched the movie, I was curious: Is he a Chinese programmer? Or is he from the United States? Aren't you jet-lagged? Why do you want to sue the company for age discrimination? This is not America.

How come he didn't know about it until the day he was fired? Shouldn't he have known this day would come 10 years ago?

It was only after he was laid off that he realized he couldn't find a job even after submitting more than 1,000 resumes.

The performance here is very distorted. When I was a programmer intern in 2006, I knew on the first day that if you are neither the boss nor the partner in a dozen years, you should be prepared to sell braised duck rice.

There was no Didi or food delivery in those days, and everyone knows why Xu Zheng in the movie looked like he came from the moon.

So the problem is very simple, that is, this family’s finances are seriously unhealthy.

What are your home's assets? What are your home's liabilities?

Is the house you live in, no matter how big it is, an asset? No, it is a liability.

Only things that can bring you cash flow on a regular basis are assets.

Does your home generate cash flow for you? Can you rent it out?

This is even more impossible for cars. The discount is 30% when you land, and the depreciation is zero in ten years, even if you own a luxury car.

So if you want to know your family’s financial situation, it’s very simple. Just do the math and see how many years you can survive if no one in the family works.

How long you can last depends not only on how much income you have, but also on your expenses.

With the same amount of money, if you spend A every year, you can last for 10 years, but if you spend 10A every year, you can only last for a few months.

If you look at Xu Zheng's family, they are all about expenses. They have to pay their monthly mortgage, their wife works full-time, their daughter goes to an international school, and their father goes to a rehabilitation center. How can they make any money? So Xu Zheng can only deliver food.

And there are many cognitive deficiencies here.

Xu Zheng's choice for the first two months was to hide the fact and not tell his wife that he was unemployed.

What is he afraid of? Is he afraid that his wife will find out and divorce him?

If my wife wants a divorce, can I avoid it by hiding it for two months?

In fact, the sooner he tells her the better. If they want to divorce, they can do it sooner. If they don't, his wife can start working earlier and earn a few more months' salary. Then the scene in the movie where the couple has to work as a singles dealer to pay off the mortgage won't happen.

Losing a job is like losing bloodWhen he lost his job, his first reaction was not to stop the bleeding but to still insist that his father wanted to use imported medicine, his daughter wanted to go to an international school, and his wife continued to work full-time.

If we think of a family as a business, it would be very foolish for a CEO to do so.

The short-term or conventional goal of running a business is always to maintain cash flow, and the long-term or strategic goal is always to prepare for a rainy day.

This family is in a complete mess, with nothing in it, and the cognition of the whole family is very low.

The father thinks that since his son is from Tongji University, he cannot be a delivery boy and should do a decent white-collar job.

My wife thinks the bottom line is to do everything possible to keep the house.

Xu Zheng himself was so obsessed with face that he refused to stop the bleeding even when his family's cash flow was cut off.

What is the correct approach?

The first thing you should do is change your house, maybe a smaller one. Even if the price can go back up in the future, you have to give up now.Reduce the biggest expense first.

What is his house called an asset? It has dropped by 3 million compared to when he bought it.

He lives in such a big house, but he can't generate rent. How does he survive now? Delivering food?

If anything goes wrong in the process, such as if he gets into a car accident, how can he maintain it?

Of course, at the end of the movie, the family finally understood.

The wife went out to work, even if it was to do manicures, and the husband went to deliver packages. The father no longer went to the rehabilitation center, but exercised and recovered at home. The daughter did not go to an international school, and the whole family moved into a small house.

If you look at it from a macro perspective, this certainly doesn’t help society as a whole.

If no one buys big houses, who will we sell them to?

Everyone is upgrading their consumption and looking for jobs, but where are all the jobs?

If everyone goes to deliver food, do manicures, and does not go to rehabilitation centers, and everyone changes from consumers to job seekers, it will only make job hunting more difficult, leading to less consumption and more job hunting, and the spiral will continue downward.

However, from a micro perspective, this is the only thing this family can do.

Therefore, the theme of the movie is not hard work, but reducing costs, increasing efficiency, and increasing revenue and reducing expenditure.

Although for the whole society, every family is trying to increase income and reduce expenditure, which actually has a negative effect. Just like if the food delivery drivers all use Xu Zheng's food delivery software, it will only make it more difficult to make money.

But this is no longer something we can consider.

In the first part of the great changes that day, I analyzed: What is our biggest advantage?

In fact, it is durable.

The words are rough but the truth is true. You can use the words in "The Way of Heaven" to describe the villagers of Wangmiao Village, which is to endure what others cannot endure.

So don’t be fooled by the Americans’ constant talk about breakthroughs from 0 to 1. If we really want to implement them, we will be the only ones who can do it.

Because the landing process was extremely painful, those American uncles had already started making a fuss, just as Xu Zheng said, about age discrimination and all that.

From a global perspective, being tough and tolerant are our great advantages, but from an individual perspective, do I need to say anything more?

Therefore, from an individual perspective and a family perspective, the most important thing is to plan ahead, otherwise you will be the one who suffers.

You knew we had to build it, so why didn't you prepare for it earlier?

Not to mention the distant past, just take the movie where Xu Zheng was delivering takeout. He knew to give a pack of cigarettes to the doorman and a massager to the restaurant owner, just to get the food delivered faster, have it served faster, and go through the back door or something like that.

When he was working in a big company, didn’t he know how to respect human nature?

The interests of executives and the interests of the company are not necessarily consistent.

For example, Zhang San and I are colleagues, both of us have an annual salary of one million. I take out 500,000 to reward my boss. Will he be fired or me?

You figure it out yourself.

In fact, if you are smart, you can do all this. Do you still need to work overtime to write code at your age?

You figure it out yourself.

Just like what I told you in the third part that day, when I discovered that in the high-frequency world, I could never be faster than dedicated lines or algorithms.

It suddenly dawned on me, why should I compete with algorithms and dedicated lines?

I am a living person, why shouldn't I make use of my advantages in this area?

You have to understand that this is ultimately a personal world and it’s a human game.

The name of this movie is good, "Retrograde Life", but it misses the point. What is the key point of "Retrograde Life"? It is reverse thinking. If you don't want to be trapped, you have to think about the problem in reverse.

We humans actually have many, many, well, you know.

We are human beings. If we break the stick in our brain and open up our minds, how can we lose?

No, the reason why you lose is because your thinking is still not open, you still don’t understand. This is first and foremost a personal world.

You just have to play the winning part.

Follow the official account, Xifeng Compass, to read the full text "Great changes are coming, what else can we do?"