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The strong rebound of RMB exchange rate has effectively countered the "short selling" theory

2024-08-09

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On August 6, in Yantai, Shandong, Chinese-made cars gathered at Yantai Port and will be exported overseas via car carriers. In the first seven months of 2024, China's import and export of goods increased by 6.2% year-on-year. Image courtesy of Visual China

On the evening of August 2, the RMB exchange rate continued to rise during the day, and the rise continued to expand. Visual China

"Traders have given up on the strategy of shorting the RMB." Bloomberg reported on August 5 that this week, many stock markets plunged and circuit breakers were triggered, and global financial markets were volatile, but the RMB exchange rate showed a clear appreciation trend, returning to the high point of 7.10 at the beginning of the year. In a report on August 2, Bloomberg praised the "RMB as one of the best performing currencies in Asia." This is in stark contrast to the "shorting the Chinese economy" argument that once appeared in the international public opinion field in the first half of this year.

"Arguments such as 'shorting the RMB' and 'shorting the Chinese economy' are a new version of the 'China collapse theory'. They are actually pessimism about the lower-than-expected recovery of the Chinese economy in the 'post-epidemic period' and hype that the Chinese economy is facing fundamental problems." Cai Tongjuan, director of the Macro Research Department and researcher at the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China, said in an interview with China Youth Daily and China Youth Network that the recent rebound in the RMB exchange rate and a series of newly released Chinese economic data have strongly countered these arguments, showing that the RMB exchange rate still depends on the fundamentals of sustained and stable growth of the Chinese economy, and that China's reform and opening-up process will continue to move forward as always.