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【Text/Observer Network Yang Rong】

Additional military aircraft carriers, flight suspensions and detours, enhanced alarm systems... In the past week, from Israel, the United States to Middle Eastern countries, all parties have been intensively preparing for Iran's "retaliation" action, which was originally expected to come as early as Monday (August 5), but Iran has "stayed put". Al Arabiya, a satellite TV station headquartered in Dubai, UAE, reported on the 7th that a source from the US intelligence department said that Iran is believed to be waiting for the end of the special meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation and will take action as early as the evening of the 8th local time.

The OIC announced on the 5th that, at Iran's request, it will hold a special meeting in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia on the 7th to discuss the situation in the Gaza Strip and the assassination of Hamas politburo leader Haniyeh in Tehran. Iran believes that the assassination was carried out by Israel and vowed to avenge Haniyeh. The New York Times of the United States said on the 1st that Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei has ordered a direct attack on Israel.

According to Al Arabiya, "sources and officials familiar with U.S. intelligence" said on the 7th that Iran's "retaliation" against Israel has dragged on longer than the United States initially expected. The latter originally expected Iran to launch an air strike as early as the evening of the 4th or the early morning of the 5th, but until now, Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah have not taken action. The report said that the latest news indicates that any retaliatory action may now be postponed to the evening of the 8th or the 9th.

The report also said that while the exact nature of Iran and Hezbollah's response remains unclear, U.S. officials are confident that they are about to respond and are working to determine its form and whether the response will involve coordinated strikes by Iran and Hezbollah or Iraqi armed groups or Yemen's Houthi rebels.

According to CNN sources on the 7th, Hezbollah is increasingly likely to launch an attack on Israel in the coming days "independent of Iran's intentions", and Iran seems to be still studying how to respond. A US military official said that Iran has made some preparations, but has not yet completed all the preparations that the United States judges should be seen before Iran's large-scale attack on Israel.

One source also said that given Lebanon's northern border with Israel, Hezbollah can act with little to no notice, which is not the case with Iran. In addition, in the view of some officials, Iran and Hezbollah may not be completely in agreement on how to proceed with potential attacks. At present, based on reports from the US and Lebanese media and the interpretation of Israeli officials, Hezbollah militants may strike multiple targets, including the IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv.

According to Arab satellite TV, Hezbollah is believed to have a large arsenal of precision-guided missiles, but it has not been deployed since the conflict escalated in October last year. Israel relies mainly on weapons provided by the United States for protection, including the Iron Dome air defense system, precision-guided munitions, Hellfire air-to-ground missiles and drones. The report said that although US officials believe they can help Israel deal with most attacks from Iran or its related organizations, a long-term conflict with Hezbollah will be a challenge.

On the other hand, judging from the latest public statements, Iran is determined to "fight". Iranian Army Chief Mousavi warned on the 7th that Iran will not ignore Israel's crimes and assassinations and will give a "clear and decisive response". Iranian Acting Foreign Minister Bagheri said at the OIC on the same day that since the UN Security Council has not taken any appropriate action against Israel, Iran can only use its inherent rights to conduct legitimate defense, "We will take these measures at the appropriate time and in an appropriate manner."

On the 7th, Egypt and the United Kingdom respectively asked their airlines to avoid Iranian and Lebanese airspace during certain periods. The Egyptian Civil Aviation Ministry said on the 7th that this was because it had received a notice from Iran that it would hold military training. Egypt's official media Al Qahera News TV also quoted unnamed sources as saying that Iran has advised global civil airlines to avoid flying over Iranian airspace tonight.

However, Iran has not made any official announcement about the military exercises during the relevant period. Saeid Chalandari, CEO of Tehran Imam Khomeini International Airport, "strongly denied" some media reports that Iran's western airspace had been declared a no-fly zone, but did not specify whether there was a no-fly warning in other parts of Iran's airspace.

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