2024-08-08
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① With the entry of state-owned assets in Shenzhen, the property market has a "king bomb" in destocking! Institutions said that destocking by real estate companies will be a key factor in reversing the downward cycle of the real estate market. The company is a property service provider for well-known companies such as Alibaba, Huawei, and JD.com; ② The volume of rock climbing group purchase orders has surged by 130%. After a long period of adjustment in the sports and outdoor industry, the valuation of leading stocks in each segment track has cost-effectiveness. The company has built a sports ecosystem with upstream IP resources + midstream service system + downstream multi-channels; ③ Overseas mapping: International crude oil rose by more than 2%, while European natural gas rose by 5.6%, and the decline in US EIA crude oil inventories exceeded expectations.
[Individual stock bidding and consecutive board data (new version)]
It should be noted that the height of consecutive boards and the promotion rate of two to three consecutive boards continue to decline, which shows that the emotional ebb is still quite obvious. Fortunately, the number of first boards remains at 30+. If the high stocks in the past two days cannot be repaired, funds may once again flow from the 10cm main board to the 20cm stocks, just like Xiangxue Pharmaceutical and Code Education have taken on a lot of short-term funds.
【Market Main Line】
The market fluctuated and differentiated throughout the day on Wednesday, and the Shanghai Composite Index was relatively strong. On the disk, communication equipment and power grid concept stocks opened strong, commercial aerospace concept stocks broke out again, and the previously active pharmaceutical stocks ushered in a collective adjustment. At the index level, "shrinking volume + high opening and low closing (except the Shanghai Stock Exchange) + foreign capital outflow", the index seems to have replicated the trend of the previous day, the difference is that the overall volatility is smaller, which is a typical "swinging market". The reason why the peripheral market is under pressure and the city is about to be destroyed, but I remain unmoved, is mainly because the recent overseas ups and downs are still mainly single-day in nature. Although the Nikkei rebounded for two consecutive days, this is more due to the excessive adjustment on Monday. In other words, even they themselves may not be sure how the follow-up will go, let alone outsiders, and only time can eliminate panic. Looking back at the sample intervals of the past 8 rounds of VIX index changes, panic usually peaks around 10 trading days, and then the US stock market is likely to bottom out and stabilize about a month after the panic, while the A-share market is faster, stabilizing in about half a month. Therefore, this time the shrinking volume of the A-share market is mainly waiting for the global market to determine the direction.
In terms of themes, first of all, due to the successful launch of the Qianfan constellation into orbit, commercial aviation is undoubtedly the most popular theme at this stage. However, participating in a "clear card" theme during the period of emotional ebb is likely to be accompanied by risks and opportunities. While Aerospace Power, Lijun Shares, and Tendering Shares have been rising continuously, the top of the decline list is also occupied by previously active stocks such as Tengda Technology and Daye Shares. If you must choose a stock as a reference for emotions, you can look at the trend of the new capacity target Aerospace Technology (high popularity + large transaction amount + graphics imitating public transportation) after yesterday's reverse limit. Secondly, the logic of new themes such as optical fiber and cable is actually very smooth and easy to understand. ① Yesterday, we mentioned that stocks like Tenda Technology