The economic "half-year report" of 31 provinces is released: Inner Mongolia leads the growth rate, while Henan's foreign trade declines
2024-08-06
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While the economically developed provinces have successfully taken on the main responsibility for economic growth, the economic data of some provinces have also fluctuated.
According to the official websites of the statistical bureaus of various provinces, as of July 30, the economic "report cards" of 31 provinces (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) for the first half of 2024 have all been released.Among them, the regional gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 16 provinces exceeded the national average (5.0%).
Data source: Provincial Statistics BureauEconomically developed provinces remain the "mainstay"
Judging from the total economic output in the first half of the year, major economic provinces remain the "backbone".Guangdong (6524.25 billion yuan) and Jiangsu (6332.63 billion yuan) still ranked first and second, accounting for more than 20% of the national total; Shandong (4667.7 billion yuan), Zhejiang (4092 billion yuan), and Henan (3123.144 billion yuan) ranked third to fifth respectively. Sichuan, Hubei, Fujian, Hunan, Anhui, Shanghai, Beijing, and Hebei exceeded 2 trillion yuan. Compared with the same period last year, Beijing surpassed Hebei to rank 12th, and Inner Mongolia surpassed Shanxi to squeeze into the top 20.In terms of growth rate, the values for each province fall within the range of 1%-6.2%, and the growth rates of eight provinces have reached the annual target.Inner Mongolia led the way with a high growth rate of 6.2%, followed by Chongqing and Tibet with a growth rate of 6.1%. It is worth noting that the GDP growth rates of Qinghai, Heilongjiang and Shanxi were all below 2%.
Data source: Provincial Statistics BureauOverall, seven of the top ten provinces in terms of GDP grew faster than the national average (5.0%), and five of them exceeded 5.5%.It is worth noting that the GDP of Henan Province and Shanxi Province in the first half of 2024 were 312.3144 trillion yuan and 111.8685 trillion yuan respectively, while in the first half of 2023 they were 313.26 trillion yuan and 1168.856 trillion yuan, and the growth in both provinces was negative.Negative consumption growth in five provincesJudging from the "three engines" that drive economic growth (investment, consumption and exports), investment and foreign trade exports are generally improving, while consumption is relatively weak.Among the 31 provinces, Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Hainan and Qinghai saw negative year-on-year growth in total retail sales of consumer goods in the first half of the year, with declines of 0.3%, 2.3%, 2.1%, 6.2% and 4.3% respectively.Among them, Beijing and Shanghai slowed down by 4.8 and 25.8 percentage points respectively compared with the same period last year.One of the reasons is that last year was the first year after the optimization and adjustment of the COVID-19 prevention and control measures, and the base of consumption growth was relatively high.
The decline in catering revenue has become an important reason for the negative growth in consumption in Beijing and Shanghai.Data shows that in the first half of the year, Beijing's catering industry revenue fell 3.5% year-on-year, Shanghai's accommodation and catering industry fell 3.6% year-on-year, and at the same time, Shanghai's retail sales of daily necessities (home appliances, hardware, etc.) and fuel commodities (oil, natural gas, etc.) fell 4.7% and 3.9% year-on-year respectively.
Deng Jinbing, deputy director of the Service Industry Department of the Shanghai Municipal Commission of Commerce, said at a press conference on July 10 that since the beginning of this year, the Shanghai catering industry has been under increasing pressure due to multiple factors such as fluctuations in market consumer confidence and rising business operating costs.
On July 17, the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics issued a document stating that since the beginning of this year, consumption trends have continued to shift towards rational experience, and the foundation and driving force for the recovery of the consumer goods market need to be further consolidated and strengthened.In the next step, we need to continue to optimize the business environment, improve consumer supply, increase efforts to cultivate new consumption, and promote the recovery and positive development of Beijing's consumer market.According to the data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of the year, the year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods dropped by 4.5 percentage points compared with the same period last year. Among them, the year-on-year growth rates of total retail sales of consumer goods in April and June were 2.3% and 2% respectively, which were lower than the growth rates of other months since the beginning of 2023.“Judging from the consumption and investment data, the problem of demand contraction still exists this year, and the development trend has accelerated."Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Macroeconomic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that special attention should be paid to the market-led demand contraction, which has caused changes in data on the production and supply sides.Whether the market-driven demand contraction can be reversed as soon as possible in the second half of the year is crucial to achieving the expected economic growth target for the whole year.Henan's mobile phone exports fallIn terms of foreign trade, the foreign trade of major economic provinces has performed well in the first half of this year. The results of "going overseas to grab orders" have gradually emerged, offsetting the impact of the weak global market to a certain extent.Among them, Guangdong, Zhejiang and Jiangsu's exports exceeded 1.5 trillion yuan in the first half of the year.
Guangdong continued to maintain its position as the "largest exporting province" with 2.8469 trillion yuan, and its year-on-year growth rate of 12.1% also ranked first among major economic provinces.
On July 23, Yang Xinhong, director of the Guangdong Provincial Bureau of Statistics, said that because Guangdong was affected by short-term factors such as extreme climate and flood disasters in the first half of the year, and Guangdong enterprises are highly outward-oriented and market-oriented, the impact they encountered may be more direct.Under such circumstances, Guangdong's imports and exports grew by double digits in the first half of the year, and its impact on the economy was stronger than last year.
Yang Xinhong pointed out,At the current stage of economic development, overall, the fundamentals of Guangdong's economy have not changed, the trend of economic operation shifting towards higher quality and improved quality has not changed, and the accumulation of positive energy by business entities has not changed.
In addition, Henan, which has been the "No. 1 foreign trade province in central China" for 12 consecutive years, is facing a decline in total exports.According to statistics from Zhengzhou Customs, in the first half of this year, Henan Province's foreign trade imports and exports totaled 325.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.8%.Among them, exports were 200.83 billion yuan, down 19.1 percentage points from 250.58 billion yuan in the same period last year.Mobile phones are the "backbone" of Henan's exports. In the first half of this year, the total value of Henan's mobile phone exports was 56.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 49.1% compared with the same period last year, which will have a certain impact on foreign trade.
It is understood that in the past ten years, mobile phone exports once accounted for nearly half of Henan's exports.From 2022, the total value began to decline gradually.From 2021 to 2023, the total value of Henan's mobile phone exports dropped from 272.72 billion yuan to 240.62 billion yuan, and the proportion of Henan's total exports also dropped from 54.3% to 45.6%.In the first half of this year, the proportion further dropped to 28.1%.The number of mobile phone exports has declined significantly. In 2018, Henan's mobile phone exports reached a historical high of about 126 million units. Since then, it has declined year by year, falling to 57.61 million units in 2023, and only 13.951 million units in the first half of this year.
NoHowever, Henan is not unprepared, and its new energy vehicle industry is on the rise.Data shows that in the first four months of this year, Henan's electric vehicle exports reached 2.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69.6%. In the first five months, Zhengzhou's new energy vehicle production increased by 72.8% year-on-year.BYDThe world's largest manufacturing plant has been built in Zhengzhou. On the other hand, Foxconn's new energy vehicle pilot production center has now settled in Zhengzhou. In the future, new energy vehicles may become a new growth booster for Henan.
At the same time, the General Office of the Henan Provincial Government issued the "Several Measures of Henan Province to Promote the Integrated Development of Domestic and Foreign Trade" (hereinafter referred to as the "Measures") on the evening of July 18, pointing out that Henan Province will accelerate the construction of the RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement) demonstration zone and promote the construction of domestic and foreign trade integration demonstration cities such as Zhengzhou, Luoyang and Nanyang.The "Measures" mainly include five aspects, including promoting the connection and integration of domestic and foreign trade rules and systems, promoting the connection of domestic and foreign trade market channels, optimizing the development environment of domestic and foreign trade integration, accelerating the coordinated development of domestic and foreign trade in key areas, and improving the guarantee measures for domestic and foreign trade integration.
It is worth noting that the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region had the fastest growth rate of 6.2% in the first half of 2024.
In addition to traditional industries such as coal, rare earth and steel, Inner Mongolia has also built a new energy industry system based on photovoltaics and wind power. While investment has leapt forward, it has also driven the rise of related manufacturing industries.。In the first half of this year, Inner Mongolia's fixed asset investment increased by 12% year-on-year, the added value of equipment manufacturing industry increased by 41.3% year-on-year, wind power generation increased by 18.6%, and the output of rare earth compounds and polysilicon increased by 2.3 times and 1.1 times respectively.
Moreover, it belongs to Inner MongoliaOrdosThe city's Jungar Banner is committed to building a national clean and efficient power export base, and has built a national ultra-high voltage transmission channel from western Inner Mongolia to southern Tianjin, realizing "coal from the air and electricity from Beijing, Tianjin and Tangshan".It is understood that the new energy industry in Zhungeer Banner plans to complete an investment of about 11 billion yuan this year, and at the same time complete the construction of a 4 million kilowatt wind and solar base, and strive to break through 5 million kilowatts of new energy installed capacity.watt.
On April 3 this year, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Natural Resources, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the National Energy Administration, and the National Forestry and Grassland Administration jointly issued the "Notice on Several Policy Measures to Support Inner Mongolia's Green, Low-Carbon, and High-Quality Development", proposing 30 support measures in seven areas, including accelerating the green and low-carbon transformation of energy, building a green and low-carbon modern industrial system, promoting green development in key areas, strengthening green and low-carbon scientific and technological innovation, comprehensively improving the quality and stability of the ecological environment, and deepening regional all-round open cooperation.
Inner Mongolia is constantly narrowing the gap with Shanxi. In the next few years, its GDP is expected to surpass Shanxi and advance into the top 20 provinces.
(Compiled by Yang Minghui, information sources: Zhengzhou Customs official website, Economic Observer, National Bureau of Statistics official website, Xinhua News Agency, National Development and Reform Commission official website, etc.)
