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Less worries about stock trading

Asia-Pacific stock markets generally suffered heavy losses today, with the A-share consumer sector being the only sector that stood out.

Japan's Tokyo stock market

Biggest one-day drop since 1987

On August 5, Japan's Tokyo stock market continued its downward trend on the last trading day of last week.As of the close, the Nikkei 225 index fell 12.4%, triggering the circuit breaker mechanism twice, marking the largest single-day drop since 1987.

During trading on July 12, the Nikkei 225 index hit an all-time high; in just less than a month, the index suffered consecutive heavy blows, and the latest index fell by more than 10,000 points from its historical high, with a retracement of 25.85%.

According to CCTV News, the Japanese stock market crash was caused by multiple factors. On the one hand, the Bank of Japan decided to raise interest rates and reduce the scale of government bond purchases at the monetary policy meeting that ended on July 31, raising the policy interest rate from 0%~0.1% to around 0.25%. As a result, the yen appreciated sharply against the US dollar, appreciating by more than 4 yen in one day, reaching a high point in more than four months.

Due to the exchange rate fluctuations caused by the interest rate hike, as well as investors' concerns about the US economic outlook and high-tech companies' performance falling short of expectations, the Nikkei 225 index plummeted on August 2.

On the other hand, the non-farm data released by the United States last week was lower than expected. Investors were worried that the US economy would fall into recession. Panic sentiment spread in the market, causing the New York stock market to fall and the US dollar to weaken rapidly. Against this background, panic selling occurred in the Tokyo stock market.

Some analysts said that overseas investors are increasing their selling of Japanese stocks due to the appreciation of the yen and the decline of Japanese stocks. The plunge has undoubtedly seriously affected investor sentiment, and it may take quite a while for some investors to return to the Japanese stock market.

While the Japanese stock market fell sharply, stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region also collectively adjusted today. On August 5, local time, the two major stock indexes in the South Korean stock market both triggered the circuit breaker mechanism. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) fell more than 10% during the session, falling below the 2,400 point mark, triggering the circuit breaker mechanism.

The FTSE Singapore Straits Index fell more than 5% during the session, the Vietnam VN Index, the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI and the Indonesia Composite Index fell more than 4% during the session, the India SENSEX30 Index fell more than 3% during the session, and the Australia S&P 200 Index fell more than 3.8% during the session.

A-share consumer sector remains strong against the trend

In the morning of August 5, the A-share market index turned positive against the market trend, with the ChiNext Index rising by more than 1%. In the afternoon, under the influence of external stock markets, the Shanghai Composite Index closed down 1.54% and the ChiNext Index fell 1.89%.

Technology stocks fell across the board, with copper cable high-speed connection, storage chip, optical module, PCB, automotive chip and other indexes falling by more than 5%.Shenyu shares, Shenglan sharesThey fell by 15.13% and 14.12% respectively.Wall Nuclear MaterialsThe three musketeers of optical modulesTianfu Communication, Xinyisheng, Zhongji XuchuanBoth fell by more than 7%, and the latest closing price has retreated by around 30% compared with the high point of the year.

Stimulated by consumption policies, sectors such as food and beverage, social services, games, education, and commerce and retail are relatively resilient. In the social services sector, many education stocks rose against the market trend.Kevin Education, Anli Education, Action Education, Offcn EducationDaily limit.

In the food and beverage sector,Royal Group, Rock HoldingsDaily limit,Huangtai Wine, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, Qianwei Yangchu, Zhongjing Food, Yingjia GongjiuBoth rose by more than 2%.

Policies to boost consumption continue to increase

On the news front, the State Council recently issued the "Opinions on Promoting the High-Quality Development of Service Consumption" (hereinafter referred to as the "Opinions"), which proposed 20 key tasks in six areas in the service consumption fields such as catering, tourism, medical care, and elderly care.This includes vigorously developing the silver economy, studying the expansion of visa-free countries, and actively developing ice and snow sports.

The Opinions propose that, first, we should tap into the potential of basic consumption such as catering and accommodation, domestic services, and elderly care. Second, we should stimulate the vitality of improved consumption such as cultural entertainment, tourism, sports, education and training, and residential services. Third, we should cultivate and expand new types of consumption such as digital, green, and healthy. Fourth, we should enhance the momentum of service consumption, innovate service consumption scenarios, strengthen the cultivation of service consumption brands, and expand the opening up of the service industry. Fifth, we should optimize the service consumption environment, strengthen service consumption supervision, guide honest and compliant operations, and improve service consumption standards. Sixth, we should strengthen policy guarantees, strengthen fiscal and taxation support, consolidate the support of the talent team, and improve the level of statistical monitoring.

Huaxi Securities pointed out thatThe document is expected to actively boost service industry consumption. It is recommended to pay attention to the following four investment themes: First, the bottom of the expected pro-cyclical trend, pay attention to the valuation repair of business improvement, and the related beneficiary targets; second, personalized demand drives the rise of segmented tracks, and pay attention to targets with both growth and defensive attributes; third, the targets with high performance growth certainty and performance realization ability that is expected to continue to be verified by the market; fourth, the new offline retail format is expected to lead a new round of retail channel changes, and pay attention to related targets.

Since 2024, the government and relevant departments have introduced a series of policy measures in the areas of automobiles, home appliances, equipment upgrades, and old-for-new exchanges to promote the upgrading of related industries and the release of consumer demand.

With the implementation of relevant measures, the policy effects have become apparent.The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that in the first half of this year, the national investment in equipment and tools increased by 17.3% year-on-year, contributing 54.8% to the growth of total investment; investment in technological transformation in the manufacturing industry increased by 10%, 0.5 percentage points higher than manufacturing investment; retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment in units above the designated size increased by 3.1% year-on-year, 2.1 percentage points faster than the same period last year.

Steady growth

Oversold consumer leading stocks revealed

The consumer sector involves a wide range of industries. Databao is based on industries closely related to daily consumption and optional consumption, such as food and beverage, household appliances, trade and retail, textiles and apparel, consumer electronics, games, social services, beauty care, and automobiles. It selects oversold leading stocks with steady performance growth and low price-earnings ratios. The specific conditions are as follows:

1. The net profit in 2021 is positive, and the net profit has increased for three consecutive years from 2021 to 2023.

2. As of the close of August 5, the market value of A shares exceeded 10 billion yuan.

3. The latest closing price has retreated by more than 20% from the year’s high.

4. The latest rolling P/E ratio is below 30 times.

Statistics show that a total of 30 stocks were shortlisted, including 6 A-share leaders with a market value of 100 billion yuan, namelyFoxconn, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, Haier Smart Home, Yanghe Shares, Changan Automobile。

The future growth potential of the above 30 oversold leading stocks is also worth looking forward to. According to the consensus forecast of more than 5 institutions, there are 6 stocks whose net profit growth rate is expected to exceed 20% in the next three years, namelyAimei, Gujing Gongjiu, Chunfeng Power, PROYA, Shanxi Fenjiu, Yingjia Gongjiu。

Comparing the latest closing price with the consensus target price forecast by institutions,ImeiThe upside potential is 77.56%, ranking first. Ping An Securities Research Report believes that as the scale effect emerges, Aimei's net profit margin has remained above 60% since 2020. In the past, the company's core products contributed more than 70% of its revenue at its peak. When similar competing products were approved or entered relevant indications, the company kept its own pace and further launched cutting-edge products to contribute new growth momentum. In the future, as the product matrix continues to enrich, the company's revenue structure is expected to be relatively balanced.

Statement: All information content of Databao does not constitute investment advice. The stock market is risky and investment should be cautious.

Editor: He Yu

Proofreading: Yang Lilin

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