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Hold on! A-shares "deep V" turned positive, RMB rose sharply! Key economic data released

2024-08-05

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When trading opened on Monday, foreign markets plummeted, but A-shares withstood the pressure in the early trading session, with the three major indexes turning positive.

As of today's midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 2907.33 points, up 0.07%; the Shenzhen Component Index was at 8584.96 points, up 0.37%; and the ChiNext Index was at 1645.11 points, up 0.42%. More than 3,200 stocks in the two markets rose.



On the news front, the just-released Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index (Service PMI) for July recorded 52.1, up 0.9 percentage points from June, indicating that the expansion of the service industry has accelerated.

Judging from the sub-data of Caixin China Services PMI, the expansion rates of supply and demand in the services sector accelerated in July, and the two major indexes rebounded in the expansion range.

Employment conditions in the service industry improved in July, with the employment index rising into the expansion range and reaching its highest level since September 2023.

After the data was released, the FTSE China A50 Futures Index rose sharply, digesting the decline in the morning due to the influence of foreign markets. As of midday, the increase was 0.57%.


In terms of sectors, education stocks performed strongly, with Kevin Education, Offcn Education, Only Education, and Action Education hitting their daily limit.

The State Council recently issued the "Opinions on Promoting the High-Quality Development of Service Consumption", which proposed to promote colleges and universities, scientific research institutions, and social organizations to open up high-quality educational resources to meet the diversified and personalized learning needs of the general public. Promote the improvement of the quality and efficiency of vocational education and build high-level vocational schools and majors.


The film and television stocks rose during the session, with Zhejiang Culture Film Group and Xiangyuan Culture Tourism hitting their daily limit, and many stocks including Huanrui Century, Shanghai Film, and Jinyi Film and Television rising.

The State Council issued the "Opinions on Promoting the High-Quality Development of Service Consumption", which proposed to tap the potential of basic consumption such as catering and accommodation, domestic services, and elderly care and childcare; stimulate the vitality of improved consumption such as cultural entertainment, tourism, sports, education and training, and residential services; cultivate and expand new types of consumption such as digital, green, and healthy; enhance the momentum of service consumption, innovate service consumption scenarios, strengthen the cultivation of service consumption brands, relax market access to the service industry, and continue to deepen the opening up of areas such as telecommunications.



Looking ahead to August, CITIC Securities Research Report believes that as policies enter the implementation stage, the turning point of price signals has not yet arrived and the market still lacks incremental funds, A-shares are relatively safe amid the volatility of global high-risk assets. The market is expected to continue to bottom out and the major turning point of the annual market will only appear after the price signals become clear.

CICC said that based on the semi-annual performance forecasts of listed companies and the second quarter PPI performance, the growth rate of the semi-annual performance of A-share listed companies is expected to improve marginally compared with the first quarter. Globally priced resource products, export chains and TMT sectors may be structural highlights.

Everbright Securities stated that the current market valuation is at a low level, the risk factors faced are relatively small, and the future market downside is expected to be limited.Around September may be a critical time point for the market to go up. We should pay attention to the opportunities brought about by the resonance of multiple factors, such as the marginal improvement in economic data after the active policy efforts, the stabilization of the real estate market, and the weakening of constraints of overseas interest rate cuts on my country's monetary policy.

In addition, on August 5, the offshore RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar rose sharply, rising nearly 500 points in the morning, strongly regaining the four levels of 7.16, 7.15, 7.14 and 7.13, and once rose above 7.12.

Recently, the RMB exchange rate has rebounded rapidly from its low point this year, and the trend of strengthening is obvious. Last week, the offshore RMB rose by more than 1,500 points against the US dollar, rebounding nearly 2% during the week; the onshore RMB rose by more than 1,000 points against the US dollar, recovering more than 1% during the week.

Regarding the repeated appreciation of the RMB, Li Liuyang, a foreign exchange research expert at CICC, said that changes in the external environment leading to the closing of carry trades and the implementation of stable exchange rate policies may be the two main reasons for the recent rebound in the RMB exchange rate.


Editor: Chen Lixiang

Proofreader: Yang Lilin