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Source: Global Times

[Global Times Special Correspondent in Egypt Huang Peizhao Global Times Special Correspondent Chen Xin] On the 1st local time, a large number of Iranians gathered on the streets to participate in a memorial service for Haniyeh, the leader of the Political Bureau of the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), who was assassinated in Tehran the day before. On the same day, the funeral of Lebanese Hezbollah senior commander Shukur was held in Beirut. "Two enemies of Israel were killed, and the Middle East was pushed to the brink of a larger war." The headline of the news in the US "Wall Street Journal" expressed the concerns of the international community. The "New York Times" revealed that Iranian leaders have issued orders to directly attack Israel, but it is not clear how much force Iran will respond, nor whether it will adjust again to avoid escalation. So far, Israel has not claimed responsibility for the killing of Haniyeh. Although Iran is believed to have no intention of launching a large-scale war, analysts warn that "every escalation of the situation increases the risk of things getting out of control." Many Middle Eastern media believe that the existing regional balance has been disturbed, and Haniyeh's death may trigger a wider range of geopolitical turmoil. "The Middle East must step back from the brink." The British magazine The Economist published an article stating that achieving this goal still requires starting with reaching a ceasefire in Gaza.

On August 1, 2024, local time, in Tehran, Iran, Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei led people in the funeral procession to pray in front of the coffin of the late Hamas leader Haniyeh and his bodyguards. (Visual China)

"Two hours of mutual accusations" at the Security Council meeting

According to CNN, Iran held a three-day public mourning for Haniyeh's death. On the 1st, thousands of Iranians gathered in Tehran to participate in a memorial parade, many waving Iranian and Palestinian flags. The coffins of the assassinated Haniyeh and his bodyguards passed through the crowd. Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei presided over a memorial ceremony at Tehran University that day. Haniyeh will be buried in Doha, the capital of Qatar, on the 2nd.

According to the Washington Post on July 31, Khamenei said in a statement that it was "our responsibility" to avenge Haniyeh's death. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that any retaliation would be "harsh and painful." According to CNN, Lebanese Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said in a speech on the 1st that "Israel did not realize that it had crossed the red line."

On the evening of July 31, local time, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu delivered a televised speech. Agence France-Presse said that in about five minutes, he did not mention the assassination of Haniyeh, but mentioned the death of Lebanese Hezbollah commander Shukur. According to Reuters, Netanyahu said that Israel had "destroyed" Iranian proxies in the past few days. He declared, "Israeli citizens, challenging days are coming," and "Israel will make any aggression against us pay a heavy price." The British Guardian believed that this was a "provocative" speech.

According to AFP, the Israeli military announced on the 1st that after intelligence assessment, it can be confirmed that Dave, the head of Hamas' military department, was killed in the Israeli airstrike on Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip on July 13. However, a member of the Hamas Political Bureau said on the 1st that only the organization's leadership can confirm Dave's life or death.

The UN Security Council held an emergency meeting in the early morning of the 1st Beijing time. "They accused each other for two hours." Qatar's Al Jazeera reported that Israel's Deputy Permanent Representative to the United Nations Miller accused Iran and its proxies of provoking tensions and planning attacks on Israel. Iran's Permanent Representative to the United Nations Iravani said that the Security Council "must take immediate measures to hold Israel accountable for this act of aggression, including considering sanctions and other necessary measures to prevent other violations, and to show that the international community will not tolerate Israel's malicious activities."

The speeches of the US and Iranian representatives were also tit-for-tat. The US insisted that "Israel has the right to defend itself" and stressed that "the United States did not participate in Israel's air strikes on the Lebanese capital Beirut on July 30" and "was not aware of or involved in the death of Hamas leader Haniyeh". According to CNN, Iravani said, "Without the authorization and intelligence support of the United States, Israel's assassination of Haniyeh would not have happened." He also confirmed that the United States, Britain and France blocked the Security Council from passing a draft media statement condemning Israel.

According to AFP, some members of the Security Council, including China, Russia and Algeria, directly condemned the assassination of Haniya. China's permanent representative to the United Nations, Fu Cong, said that this incident was a blatant destruction of peace efforts and a wanton violation of the basic principle of the UN Charter, which is to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries. Military means and the abuse of force are not the way out of the problem, but will only lead to a greater crisis.

"A week can be a long time in a war"

The US VOX News Network described on the 1st that the Middle East has experienced "a very dangerous 24 hours" and that since October 7 last year, the region "has never been so close to an all-out war."

The British magazine The Economist recalled that a week can be a long time for a war. Until July 27, people were increasingly optimistic that Israel and Hamas would soon reach a ceasefire agreement, and diplomats and intelligence officials from four countries planned to discuss the details at a meeting in Rome. However, then, the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights came under rocket attack, and Israel retaliated by bombing the southern suburbs of Beirut to kill a Hezbollah commander. A few hours later, Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran, and Hamas accused Israel of being the culprit. Hopes for a ceasefire were replaced by concerns about a larger regional war.

The Economist said that although these concerns have not yet become a reality, it is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain a certain deterrence, and the parties involved are crossing the boundaries that were previously considered insurmountable by the outside world: this year, Israel bombed Beirut twice; in April, Iran directly attacked Israel from its homeland for the first time. "The old rules of engagement in the Middle East have been cleared." The report said that since no one has determined the new rules, every attack has the potential to escalate into a full-scale war.

The New York Times quoted three Iranian officials as saying that Khamenei issued an order to directly attack Israel at an emergency meeting of Iran's Supreme National Security Council on the morning of July 31. The report revealed that Iranian military commanders are considering using drones and missiles to attack military targets near Tel Aviv and Haifa again, but will avoid attacking civilian targets.

According to CNN, after the assassination, Iran's Acting Foreign Minister Bagheri talked with leaders or diplomatic officials from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, Qatar, Oman and other countries. Bagheri told Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal that Iran would use its legal rights to take "decisive action" against Israel.

The international public opinion field has made various speculations about the retaliatory measures that Iran may take. According to the U.S. Capitol Hill newspaper, American security expert Moran expects Iran to respond directly, and the results may be very different from the attack in April. Although Iran launched more than 100 missiles and hundreds of drones at Israel at that time, most of them were intercepted, and Iran sent relevant information before the attack. The Times of Israel quoted the analysis of former Israeli National Security Advisor Shabbat on the 1st, saying that Iran is likely planning a "tit-for-tat" assassination, but such an attack takes time to plan. Another former Israeli National Security Advisor, Amidrol, believes that Iran's response to Haniyeh's killing may be more cautious.

The report said no one has claimed responsibility for Haniyeh's killing and no Iranian assets were harmed, which could provide Iran with a way to avoid a serious escalation. Iran, like Israel, does not want a regional war, but it also faces a dilemma about how to respond.

The United States does not put real pressure on Israel, "this is unsustainable"

"US and European diplomats are holding urgent discussions on the situation in the Middle East." The Financial Times reported that one of the most senior EU diplomats, European External Action Service Deputy Secretary General Molla, held "key talks" in Tehran on July 31. On the same day, White House Middle East and North Africa Coordinator McGurk held relevant talks in Saudi Arabia. He will visit Egypt next. People familiar with the matter revealed that the focus of the series of talks is to "persuade Tehran not to respond or take symbolic actions."

"The Middle East must step back from the brink." The Economist said that the assassination did not change Israel's bleak strategic position. For months, the Israeli army's war in Gaza has been going on aimlessly; Haniyeh's death will not weaken Hamas's fighting strength; the assassination of Hezbollah commander Shukur will not force the organization to stop its daily attacks on northern Israel. "A small country cannot fight on all fronts indefinitely."

According to AFP on the 1st, US Secretary of State Blinken called on "all parties" in the Middle East to ease tensions and "urgently" achieve a ceasefire in Gaza. However, Hellyer, a scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told CNN that the United States has been reluctant to use its actual influence to "force Israel into a serious negotiating position" and that "this is unsustainable."

Further reading

Niu Tanqin: Israel killed its most wanted enemy Iran and made the whole world laugh at it

Based on the picture posted by the Government Information Office

It has to be said that Israel is Israel.

Everyone knows that Hamas's top leader Haniyeh is likely to be killed by Israel, but many people never expected that Haniyeh would be killed in his residence in Tehran, Iran.

One of his bodyguards was also killed.

Who did it?

No need to ask, Israel!

But Israel, as usual, neither denied nor acknowledged it.The Israeli government’s press office quickly posted a photo of Haniyeh on social media with the words “killed”.

Everything is clear.

In fact, during the Paris Olympics, on the same day, July 31, Israel also launched an air strike on Beirut, killing Hezbollah senior leader Shukur and injuring dozens of people.

The two attacks, especially the successful hunting down of the top leader of Hamas, at least killed three birds with one stone.

First, the heavy blow to Hamas also fully demonstrated Israel's ruthless means, no matter how far away you are, you will be punished. Even if you are the top leader of Hamas, you can't escape Israel's black hand.

Second, the attack in Tehran is a serious warning to Iran. Don't forget that just a few hours ago, Haniyeh met with Iran's top leaders. Are they also in the hands of Mossad?

Third, it is a deterrent to other anti-Israel armed groups. Look at the fate of Haniyeh and Shukur. If they continue to oppose Israel, Israel will hunt them down to the end.

Haniyeh met with Khamenei before assassination

Of course, for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, this is an even greater victory.

Netanyahu is in a bad situation now. Most Israelis dislike him and protests are ongoing. He knows very well that if he is driven out of office, he will be investigated by relevant departments and may end up in jail.

Now, with the strength at the front, I suddenly hunted down the enemy I wanted to kill the most, which was naturally a great joy.

Netanyahu immediately spoke out, and put it bluntly:Anyone who harms our children, anyone who murders our fellow citizens and harms our country will pay with their lives, and any act of aggression against Israel will pay a heavy price.

It refers to both Haniyeh and Shukur, and is also a clear warning to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s recent “invasion of Israel.”

Last year, Hamas attacked Israel, and Israel subsequently launched a massacre in Gaza. Now Haniyeh has also been killed. Hezbollah rockets killed more than a dozen Druze children, and Israel immediately launched an air strike on Beirut, eliminating Shukur, an important Hezbollah leader.

In the Middle East, Israel is indeed not someone to be trifled with.

For Haniya, this ending is indeed regrettable.

If he stayed in Qatar, he would actually be safe, because Israel had made a clear promise to Qatar that it would never launch an assassination in Qatar.

Considering the overall situation of Israel-Qatar relations, Israel generally abided by the agreement. Therefore, although Israel hates Haniyeh, Haniyeh has been in Qatar for many years and is safe and sound.

But he went to Iran to attend the inauguration ceremony of the new Iranian president in person, and thus stepped into dangerous territory.

This is a major negligence and shame for Iran.

Haniyeh is such an important figure, and the whole world knows that he is Israel's number one target. He was doing nothing in Qatar, but he was killed by Israel in Tehran, the capital of Iran.

From another perspective, it is even more evident how deeply Mossad has infiltrated Iran. They fully grasped Haniyeh's exact whereabouts and chose the best time to assassinate him.

Municipal workers walk through debris from damaged buildings in a southern suburb of Beirut, Lebanon, caused by an Israeli airstrike on Tuesday night.

What will be the consequences?

First, Hamas is more sad and angry, but it is unlikely to collapse.

They must be sad and angry that the top leader was killed in this way.

Before he was assassinated, like many Palestinians in Gaza, he had also experienced the pain of losing his loved ones. Israel's indiscriminate bombing had claimed the lives of his three sons and four grandchildren.

But will Hamas collapse?

A little bit, but not at all.

Because Hamas is not only an organization, but also an ideology.

I remember when I was working in Jerusalem more than 20 years ago, the Sharon government of Israel also launched a massive attack, killing the spiritual leader of Hamas, Yassin, in a few strokes, and then quickly killing Yassin's successor, Rantisi.

Has Hamas collapsed?

One person falls, and more people stand up with hatred.

Although Haniyeh is the supreme leader and has served as the Prime Minister of Palestine, he has more political influence; the actual military command of Hamas is in the hands of Sinwar and others in the Gaza tunnels.

They will never surrender. Even if they are killed, there will be more to take their place.

Second, Iran is very angry and will inevitably retaliate.

Indeed, Iran has made a fool of itself around the world.

Our own nuclear scientists were assassinated one after another in our own country; now, a guest from afar was bombed to death in his residence in Tehran.

What does security do?

But that's the reality.

Iran, oh Iran, the infiltration of Mossad in Iran is shocking; the methods of Israeli agents are cruel and ruthless.

Certainly, Iran will launch a campaign to catch spies, but can they really catch the murderer?

All we can say is it’s better to mend the fold before the sheep are lost.

But Iran is bound to retaliate.

I saw that the angry Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei strongly condemned Israel's actions and ordered Iran to retaliate directly against Israel.

He said: "You have killed our honored guest in our house, thus paving the way for severe revenge on you. It is our duty to avenge the blood of our honored guest."

Gaza is in ruins after Israeli attack

Third, more blood and gore.

Israel considers assassinations in a country as revenge and counter-terrorism; but from another perspective, isn't this also state terrorism?

Where is international law?

Poor thing, international law is in the books.

So, we see that after the incident, except for the United States pretending to know nothing, countries around the world, including China and Russia, have condemned the assassination and are worried about the further deterioration of the situation.

After all, Haniyeh was a key figure in the ceasefire negotiations between Palestine and Israel. If he was targeted and eliminated, who would they talk to? Who would be willing to talk?

Qatari Prime Minister Al-Thani denounced:"How can mediation succeed when one side assassinates the other's negotiator? Peace requires serious partnerships and a global stand against the disregard for human life."

But this may be exactly what Netanyahu wants!

They didn't want to talk in the first place, and now they are even more unscrupulous and can kill as much as they want. They will completely wipe out Hamas in Gaza and strangle Hezbollah in the north. The more tense the situation is, the safer they are.

Bloody storm! Bloody storm! Bloody storm!

The Middle East is full of tigers and wolves, when will the cycle of revenge end?