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After the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran on July 31, the situation in the Middle East has become increasingly tense. The Israeli military announced on August 1 local time that it had confirmed that the head of Hamas' military department, Mohammed Deif, was killed in the operation on July 13. However, no organization or individual has claimed responsibility for the attack on Haniyeh, and Israel has not responded positively to this. Hamas said that it will hold a farewell ceremony for the body of the assassinated Hamas Political Bureau leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, the capital of Iran. Haniyeh's body will then be transported to Doha, the capital of Qatar, for burial. Palestinian President Abbas announced a day of national mourning and lowered the flag to half-mast, while Iran will mourn Haniyeh for three days. In addition, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has also ordered a direct attack on Israel in retaliation for Haniyeh's assassination in Tehran.

Iran mourns Haniyeh, vows revenge

According to the New York Times on July 31, citing three Iranian officials familiar with the matter, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has orderedDirect strike against Israel in retaliation for Haniyeh's assassination in TehranKhamenei issued the order at an emergency meeting of Iran's Supreme National Security Council on the morning of July 31. Although Israel has not claimed responsibility for Haniyeh's death, Iran and Hamas have accused Israel of carrying out the assassination. It is unclear what scale Iran's attack on Israel will take.

An Iranian official said Iranian military commanders are considering launching a joint drone and missile attack on military targets near Tel Aviv and Haifa, but will be careful to avoid affecting civilians. At the same time, he also said that one option Iran is considering is to launch a coordinated attack from Iran and other allied fronts (including Yemen, Syria and Iraq) to achieve maximum attack effect. Khamenei has the final say on Iran's national affairs and is also the commander-in-chief of the armed forces. In the event of an escalation of the conflict and the possibility of an attack on Iran, he instructed the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and military commanders to prepare offensive and defensive plans.

August 1, local time,Memorial service for Hamas leader Haniyeh held in Tehran, Khamenei attended the ceremony and presided over the memorial service. Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Khalibaf also delivered a speech at the ceremony, saying that there would be no answer to the "assassination" incident that Haniyeh encountered in Iran. Rallies were held in many cities in Iran, with protesters shouting anti-Israel and anti-American slogans, condemning "terrorist acts" and expressing anger at the silence and double standards of Western countries in the incident.

The Prime Minister of Qatar, who is leading the mediation effort, condemned the assassination on social media: "While negotiations are ongoing, political assassinations and continued attacks on civilians in Gaza make us ask, how can mediation succeed if one side assassinates the other's negotiator? Peace requires serious partnerships." The UN Security Council has held an emergency meeting on the incident.

Who will be the new leader of Hamas?

Haniyeh's death has also led foreign media to speculate who will take over as Hamas leader. Reuters quoted Hamas sources as saying that Khaled Meshaal is expected to be nominated as the supreme leader.

Mashaal is also one of the core founding members of Hamas. He was assassinated by Israel in Amman, the capital of Jordan, in 1997, and was injected with poison by an agent. At that time, the King of Jordan took a tough stance and demanded that Israel hand over the antidote and release Ahmed Yassin, the then leader of Hamas, otherwise he would hang the murderer and abolish the peace treaty between Jordan and Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu finally gave in and was forced to hand over the antidote. Mashaal survived and became a "hero" of Hamas. In 2004, Yassin and his successor Abdel-Aziz Al-Rantissi were killed in Israeli air strikes, and Mashaal has since taken over the position of the supreme leader of Hamas.

△Khalid Mashal

Like other Hamas leaders, Mashaal has been grappling with a key question: whether to take a more pragmatic approach to Israel toward Palestinian statehood or to continue fighting.Mashaal rejects the idea of ​​a permanent peace deal with Israel, but he could accept a Palestinian state in the West Bank, Gaza Strip and East Jerusalem as a temporary solution in exchange for a long-term ceasefire.Later, due to Mashaal's attempt to promote reconciliation with President Mahmoud Abbas, who leads the Palestinian Authority, he had a rift with other members of the Hamas leadership. As a result, Mashaal resigned as leader in 2017, handed over power to Haniyeh, and mainly carried out his work overseas. Mashaal has been active in Jordan and Syria, and currently mainly operates in Doha, Qatar and Cairo, Egypt.

After Hamas attacked Israel on October 7 last year, Mashaal said that "the attack has brought the Palestinian cause back to the center of the world agenda" and urged Arabs and Muslims to join the "battle" against Israel, saying that the Palestinians will decide alone who will manage Gaza after the conflict ends.

In addition, Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in Gaza, is also seen as a strong candidate for successor. The New York Times pointed out that Sinwar helped establish Hamas during the Palestinian uprising in the late 1980s. He was arrested by Israeli authorities many times and imprisoned for more than 20 years until he was released in a prisoner exchange in 2011. He quickly rose through the ranks of the Hamas team and became the leader of Hamas in Gaza in 2017. Israel believes thatSinwar was one of the masterminds behind the October 7 attack.Sinwar belongs to the pro-war faction in Hamas, and is opposed to the pro-peace faction represented by Haniyeh. Hugh Lovatt, a senior policy researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations, believes that Haniyeh's death will make Sinwar's faction more hardline and a ceasefire will be more difficult to achieve.

△ Sinvar

Hugh Lovat also pointed out that Mousa Abu Marzouk, a member of the Hamas Political Bureau, is also a possible candidate for the supreme leader. He is also one of the founding members of Hamas and has been active in the UAE to help establish a branch of the Palestinian Muslim Brotherhood, on the basis of which Hamas was founded. Marzouk later went to the United States, where he helped establish Islamic institutions, including those focused on the Palestinian cause. In 1996, he was accused by Israel of funding and helping to organize terrorist attacks when he was the head of the Hamas Political Bureau. After being detained in a Manhattan prison for 22 months on suspicion of terrorism, he agreed to give up his U.S. permanent residency and said he would not contest the terrorism charges that led to his detention. The United States then deported him to Jordan. Marzouk is nowA senior member of the Hamas Political Bureau, active in Gaza, Egypt and Qatar。

△ Moussa Abu Marzouk

News sources: Reuters, Associated Press, New York Times, some pictures are from the Internet

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