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Days are hard, life is not easy, everyone has his or her own sufferings, the feeling of being unable to express it, only those who suffer understand it best.

Compared to suffering, not being able to speak out about your suffering and having no one care may be more painful than the suffering itself.

After rebirth, Teacher Ye Tan has changed a lot. He has become able to endure hardships, both his own and the suffering of others.

She said, let’s share the suffering together.

Every Saturday, Mr. Ye Tan will personally reply and send it out on the official account.If you have any friends who have difficulties to share, please send your story toEmail: [email protected],Teacher Ye Tan will definitely reply when he sees this.

Remember, there are people in this world who care about you, understand you, and understand you.

Text/YeTan Finance Team

Recently, there have been many messages in the background of Ye Tan Finance, telling one story after another, about failed business ventures, family misfortunes, job losses, and buying houses at high prices...

In short, many people have been under pressure in the past two years. Life is not easy and it is hard.

Through the screen, you can feel those overflowing emotions. Let yourself go. It’s okay to complain for a while and to be sad for a while. Immersing yourself in them will make the pain last more lasting.

Everyone has their own pain, and each pain has a different taste, which others cannot empathize with. But comforting each other will greatly alleviate the pain.

It seems that how to face pain has become an important issue in society.

(Image source: pixabay)

In "The Courage to Be Disliked: The Philosophy Lesson of Adler, the "Father of Self-Inspiration", there is a passage that deeply inspired me, who once suffered.

Adler said that any experience itself is not the reason for success or failure. We are not suffering because of the stimulation in our own experience - the so-called psychological trauma - in fact, we will find factors that meet our own purposes from the experience. It is not the past experience that determines ourselves, but the meaning we give to the experience.

In Greek, the word "good" does not contain any moral meaning, it only means "beneficial"; the word "evil" also means "no good".

The world is full of evil deeds such as breaking the law and committing crimes, but there are no people who want to do "evil" or "things that are of no benefit" in the pure sense.

Misfortune does exist. Some people are born in unfortunate environments, and some people suddenly fall into unfortunate situations. But whether one stays in misfortune for a long time depends on the individual.Some people still choose "misfortune" after an unfortunate event, because "misfortune" is a kind of "good" to them.

It sounds ridiculous, right? Don’t worry, just read on.

Change is difficult, and it takes time to regain courage and normal habits. The reason why people cannot change is that they do not want to "change" and are too comfortable with it because they are used to it and indulge in it.Change makes people feel "uneasy", while if there is no change, they can justifiably complain.

Bodhisattvas fear causes, and sentient beings fear consequences. People with wisdom are alert to their own thoughts and actions, and to their own indulgence at every moment, so as to enjoy every moment.

(Image source: pixabay)

Mr. Nan Huai-Chin said that our earth is rotating, but we do not feel it; the same is true for habits, because we live in this mode every day, we are used to it, so we do not feel it is moving. When do we know it? We know it when we start.

Do not commit evil, and gradually change yourself, and the results will change little by little. Although the process of change is long, you will become more and more liberated.

I hope this text will be helpful to you all.

Without further ado, let’s get into this week’s article.

#01

The sudden appreciation of the RMB is caused by the Japanese yen giving us a leg up?

Starting from July 24, the news of RMB appreciation made the market very excited. Considering the past correlation between RMB exchange rate and RMB assets, especially the stock market, the journey downhill was thrilling and everyone’s mood was understandable.

A careful analysis will reveal that the appreciation of the RMB this week is different from the past.Judging from the market reaction, apart from the improvement of the RMB, the stock market did not follow suit, but instead fell.

In addition, from the perspective of global exchange rate comparison, the RMB exchange rate is actually not strong. Among major currencies, it is similar to the euro.

So what exactly is the reason for the sudden performance of the RMB?The most reliable analysis is that this is a passive result of the sharp rise in the Japanese yen.

According to Galaxy Securities' momentum analysis, in 2024, the correlation between the RMB and the Japanese yen will be as high as 90%, far exceeding the exchange rate relationship between the RMB and the US dollar.

(Image source: pixabay)

The Japanese yen did experience some unusual movements on July 24 in response to some news stimuli.

According to a report by Hexun.com on July 25, a source told the media that the Bank of Japan will consider raising interest rates next week and plans to reduce the scale of bond purchases by half in the next few years. The Bank of Japan committee generally agrees on the need to raise interest rates in the near future, but has not yet made a final decision on whether to raise interest rates next week or later this year.

The conclusion is here.It is highly likely that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates, which could be as short as a week or as long as a few months.

On July 26, Tokyo's core consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.2% year-on-year in July, accelerating for the third consecutive month, further strengthening Japan's case for raising interest rates.

It seems a bit far-fetched that rate hikes will lead to a rise in the yen.Remember on March 19, 2024, Japan announced the end of its negative interest rate policy and raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years? As a result, the yen depreciated rapidly until the exchange rate against the US dollar fell below 160 yuan.

Why will the expectation of this rate hike cause the yen to rise?

Traditionally, the Japanese yen is a safe-haven currency and, like gold, is a mainstream choice for safe havens. After 2021, the Japanese yen seems to have lost this function, depreciating year by year, and the Japanese stock market has therefore continued to rise.

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In the past two weeks, the political situation in the United States has changed suddenly. Trump almost encountered an accident, Biden withdrew from the election, and the global market was in chaos.The Japanese yen was rediscovered like an antique, and traders' ancient memories were activated.

As the world continues to be in such chaos, the Japanese yen, which is already in a price abyss, looks safer. Buy the Japanese yen.

If so, combined with the inertial link between the RMB and Japanese exchange rates in 2024,The passive appreciation of the RMB is easy to understand.

The central bank is very cautious. They could have used counter-cyclical factors or other tools to amplify the appreciation of the RMB. However, they did not.Perhaps it is more worthy of attention that the central bank does not take advantage of the favorable situation and does not increase its operations.

In general, there is no significant trend change in this wave of RMB appreciation. You can enjoy it for two days but don't get too involved.

#02

Technology is the most important, but this education data is worrying

The conference is over, there is almost no stimulus policy, the only thing worth looking forward to is the technology industry,The most ink is devoted to it, and the best intentions are put into it.

What is the most important thing for the development of the technology industry? Equipment upgrades? Big funds? None of them. It's a cliché.Talent is the most important.Without continuous talent training, the science and technology industry will be like a castle in the air.

(Image source: pixabay)

So, what is the situation with talent investment?

On July 22, the Ministry of Education released the "Statistical Express Report on the Implementation of National Education Funding in 2023". The data in the express report show thatInvestment in education is slowing, which is worrying.

The express report shows that the total investment in education in the country in 2023 will be 6.4595 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.3% over the previous year, which is basically the same as the GDP growth rate.

In the three years before 2023, the growth rates of total education funding were:

5.6% in 2020, 9.1% in 2021, and 6% in 2022.

In comparison, the GDP growth rates from 2020 to 2022 were 2.2%, 8.4% and 3%.

The GDP growth rate in 2023 is 5.2%, while the growth rate of education investment in the same period is 5.3%, which is only 0.1% higher than the GDP growth rate. This difference is the smallest in recent years.

It is understandable that there are financial difficulties. According to the 2023 National Education Funding Implementation Statistical Express,The slowdown in national fiscal education funding is the main reason for the overall slowdown in education investment.

In 2023, the national fiscal education expenditure was 5,043.3 billion yuan, an increase of 4.0% over the previous year.

According to the official website of the Ministry of Education, the so-called national fiscal education funds mainly include education funds arranged from the general public budget, education funds arranged from the government fund budget, corporate grants for schools run by state-owned and state-holding enterprises, and funds used for education from school-run industries and social service income.

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According to an article published by Caixin on July 23, the proportion of national fiscal education expenditure to GDP is an important internationally accepted indicator for measuring the level of education investment.

The 4% share is considered the "red line" target.This is the first time that China has been above the target for 10 consecutive years since 2012. However, in recent years, this "red line" has been constantly touched. According to Caixin statistics, the proportion was 4.01% in 2021, further dropped to 4.006% in 2022, and fell to 4.001% in 2023.

Infinitely approaching 4%. Once it breaks through, where is the bottom?

According to the statistical bulletin, in 2023, the total per capita educational expenditure in kindergartens, ordinary primary schools, ordinary junior high schools, ordinary high schools, secondary vocational schools, and ordinary colleges and universities across the country all increased compared with the previous year, with increases of 8.8%, 4.3%, 2.7%, 3.8%, 0.7%, and 3.9%, respectively.

The fastest growing sector is kindergartens, and the slowest growing sector is secondary vocational schools.

In recent years, "separation of general education from vocational education" has been a hot topic in the education sector, and parents are also very concerned about the situation in this regard.

In terms of education investment, the growth rate of investment in secondary vocational schools at the high school stage is the lowest, but in the higher education stage (i.e. university level), the growth rate of investment in ordinary higher vocational colleges is the fastest, with an amount of 363 billion yuan and a growth rate of 7.1%.

From the perspective of practical employment as the main path of study, if higher vocational colleges can truly put what they learn into practice to solve the problem of employment, benchmark the German apprenticeship system, solve the current structural supply and demand gap, and increase the employment rate, it will be a great achievement.

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The changing mentality of students is a shock to their social identity. In the past, undergraduates who followed the rules-The career path is slowly changing.It is a good option for a major manufacturing country to let students work as self-employed workers or, like Germany, allow apprentices to go to factories for further training.

#03

How can there be good things at such a low price? Don't go on a low-priced tour

Summer vacation is here, and family trips have become a trend. Before looking forward to poetry and distant places, avoid some risks first.

Starting from mid-to-late July, many places have reported that some low-priced tour groups have bad attitudes and even threaten tourists.In Tianjin, a tour guide openly told tourists on a tour bus:

"Uncles and aunts, I tell you, we can't leave without buying something today. We can't leave without 900 yuan." He emphasized: "If you spend money, you are God, if you don't spend money, you are shit!"

On July 24, in Guilin, tourists drank porridge and ate steamed buns and were forced to shop, which became a hot topic.

These tour groups are all low-priced without exception. Guilin's tour group is "40 yuan for 4 days and 3 nights". I also heard thatA 6-day round-trip trip from Shanghai to Sanya costs only 1,000 yuan.

(Image source: pixabay)

Don't be greedy for small profits. This is not common sense. In an irrational state (sales staff's various whispers, human nature's greed for cheapness), people often do some incredible things, thinking that it would be a waste if they don't take advantage of the cheapness.These people often suffer greater losses.

From an economic logic perspective, how can travel agencies make money without travel expenses and hotel fees?Do travel companies do charity work at a loss?

The wool comes from the sheep. Practitioners of low-price tours use low-price tours as a tool to attract customers, and will eventually get back the cost and profit through shopping. If you can't get it, you will get it back.

In the past, the media has reported that the proportion of rebates earned by low-price tour groups through shopping can be as high as 85%. They take people to jade and jewelry stores and force the elderly to buy in order to get high rebates.

There are many reasons why this problem persists despite repeated bans.The platform has poor supervision and local governments have lax offline management. Chinese people are accustomed to low-price competition. No matter what they buy, they will cut the price. The prices are so low that they are poisoning each other, and they are happy to do so.

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There are also some reasons that have been overlooked.The environment is not good, so many people are willing to take risks.

According to the National Business Daily, low-cost tour groups have three hard requirements when recruiting tour guides: first, they want to buy a car and a house; second, they must be married and have children; and third, they must be able to withstand pressure.

This is the most direct and explicit stimulation of desire.

#04

The decades-long pre-sale housing transaction model has disappeared, and the sale of existing homes is becoming a reality?

The conference closed and many statements were discussed and analyzed.

In the real estate sector, reform the financing methods for real estate development and the pre-sale system for commercial housing.Many people see it as a discussion of "current sale".The pre-sale system has always been a feature of China's real estate industry and a necessary condition for a high turnover model. Once it becomes a ready sale, the efficiency of real estate will inevitably be greatly reduced, and it will change from an industry to a "handicraft industry."

When people from all walks of life were discussing the real estate current sale system,Homebuyers are telling everyone through their actions that we support current sales of real estate.

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A research report released by Huatai Securities on July 21 showed that in the past three years, the proportion of existing homes in the sales area of ​​commercial housing has increased significantly, from 10.4% in 2021 to 18.7% in 2023.

In 2024, the proportion of current sales increased faster.Still according to data from Huatai Securities, in the first half of 2024, the sales area of ​​domestic commercial housing was 290 million square meters, a sharp drop of 31% year-on-year, and the sales area of ​​existing housing was 110 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 23%.

One decline and one rise have led to a rapid adjustment in the residential sales structure. The proportion of current sales has exceeded 25%, reaching 26.7%.This is the highest level since 2010.

After 2021, with the frequent collapse of real estate developers, the real estate industry has undergone tremendous changes on both the supply and demand sides. People want to buy ready-made houses, and the way of buying houses has changed from taking out as much loan as possible to taking out less loan, or even no loan.

When choosing a developer, try to choose a central state-owned enterprise, preferably a leading central state-owned enterprise.

If this trend continues, there may be no need to reform the pre-sale system, and the sale of existing homes will naturally be realized.

(Image source: pixabay)

In addition to the active choices of home buyers, local governments and banks are also using various methods to encourage,It even "forces" developers to sell existing homes.

On July 4, 2024, the South Times Express reported that many banks in Shenzhen require that mortgage loans must be capped after the main structure is completed before they can be disbursed, and this will be implemented on July 5.

The sale of existing homes will reduce the turnover rate of the real estate industry, which will undoubtedly intensify the real estate sales cycle. According to statistics from CRIC and Huatai Securities, in the first half of 2024, the inventory level in 80 cities remained at a historical high, and the sales cycle hit a record high.

In order to stimulate sales, what developers can do now is to reduce prices.

According to data from the Beike Research Institute, in June 2024, the second-hand housing discount rate index in 50 cities was 85.0%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from December 2023.

According to statistics from the Leyoujia Research Center, in the first half of 2024, more than 83% of second-hand homes in Shenzhen were priced below the official reference price, 13% higher than the same period in 2023.

There will be no sales without price reduction. This is true in all industries and even more so in the real estate market.

(Image source: pixabay)

#05

The news that fund managers least want to hear is about to come true?

On July 24, Reuters China published an article:It is said that China has set a salary cap for public fund managers.And the income that exceeded the annual income limit last year must be recovered.

China’s two major fund managers have capped employees’ annual income and will recoup any excess, five sources with direct knowledge of the matter said.This is the first time the fund industry has taken such measures since the Chinese government implemented austerity measures.

China Merchants Fund Management Co. told its employees last month that their annual salaries would be capped at 3 million yuan ($413,297) starting this year and asked them to repay any amounts they made last year that exceeded the cap, three people familiar with the matter said. Two of the sources said the refunds could be made as soon as this month.

(Image source: pixabay)

Bosera Asset Management Co. Ltd. also set a 2.9 million yuan pay cap and asked employees to return last year’s pay that exceeded the cap, two other sources said. One of them said the move was implemented in June.

Previously, there have been reports that public offerings would limit salaries and recover the money, and it seems to be confirmed.

The public offering industry was indeed a very good industry in the past. It had an ideal business model and was able to generate excess returns when the market was good. When the market was bad, all the fees that should be collected were sufficient, so the industry could generate guaranteed returns regardless of the market conditions.

In the financial field where risk trading is important,It is indeed incredible that such high income with almost no risk can exist for many years.

Since 2021, the money-making effect of funds has become very poor, and the situation has not improved in 2024. According to Caixin statistics, the average returns of stock and mixed funds are negative.

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According to statistics from China Cinda Securities, poor performance has caused the size of active equity funds to continue to decline, and as of the second quarter of 2024, it has declined for five quarters.

In the second quarter of 2024, the total scale of active equity funds was 3.38 trillion yuan, a decrease of 4.09% from the previous quarter and a decrease of 1.1 trillion yuan from the same period last year.

The performance was not good, and the investors were angry and chose to withdraw.Bringing about a series of chain reactions.In the A-share market, an important theme in 2024 is that you should avoid places with a lot of public offerings.

The reason why this logic is valid is that when investors withdraw their shares, public funds have to sell in response.

Salary cuts are for individuals, while rate cuts are for the industry itself.

Half a month before the Reuters news, on July 1, the "Regulations on the Management of Securities Transaction Fees of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds" (hereinafter referred to as the "Regulations") were implemented, and the fund fees other than passive equity funds were reduced to the "15,000" level.

When an industry goes bad, some people leave voluntarily, while others leave involuntarily.

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On July 21, Zhonggeng Fund issued an announcement stating that Qiu Dongrong will resign from his position on July 19, 2024 due to personal reasons.

As early as May, there were news that Qiu Dongrong was leaving.

The main factor to consider when buying a fund is the fund manager. If investors do not know whether the fund manager will stay or leave, there may be no reason to buy the fund. Many people were very angry at the time.To believe that there is information asymmetry is a serious irresponsibility to ordinary investors.

Now that the news has been confirmed, no relevant parties have come out to comfort the investors. The lack of explanation will undoubtedly further damage the trust of investors in the fund and will not be conducive to the development of the fund industry.

Of course, there are still "conscientious" fund managers in the fund circle, such as Zhang Kun.

Saying that Zhang Kun has a conscience is based on two points: first, when investors were endlessly pursuing Zhang Kun in 2021, Zhang Kun took the initiative to tighten the fund and warn of risks; second, up to now, there has never been any news that Zhang Kun is going to leave, and there are even rumors that the upper limit of the salary cap is Zhang Kun's attitude.

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Zhang Kun has not had a good time in recent years. His net value has been declining since 2021. At its peak, the rate of return was over 230%, but now it is only 60%.

Seeing the yields continue to decline, investors have also become realistic. The fund manager who once managed funds worth hundreds of billions of yuan now only has more than 60 billion yuan under management.

With reduced income and reduced management scale, the pressure can be imagined, but Zhang Kun is still very optimistic.In the 2024 second quarter report of E Fund Blue Chip Select Hybrid Securities Investment Fund, Zhang Kun wrote:

Due to pessimistic expectations, some high-quality companies are traded at valuations (PE, market capitalization/free cash flow) that can be easily accounted for even if they are privatized. We believe that patience is the most important thing at this moment, as the long-term return expectations of high-quality companies are very impressive.

We believe that no matter which industry develops, as long as it drives the continuous growth of per capita GDP, the living standards of the people will continue to improve.Pessimistic expectations will eventually be falsified.In fact, the biggest risk facing long-term investors at this time is that high-quality companies are privatized and controlling shareholders are no longer willing to share the company's future development results with circulating shareholders.

In Zhang Kun's eyes, good companies are all in the batting cage, waiting for time to blossom and bear fruit. The biggest risk now is privatization, which means Zhang Kun no longer has the opportunity to hold them.

(Image source: pixabay)

I remember Buffett once said that falling stocks are good news because they become cheaper. Zhang Kun’s mentality is very Buffett’s, and I hope the general direction will be worthy of such a person.

#06

After all, they broke up. Yu Minhong showed amazing magnanimity.

On July 25, 2024, Oriental Selection issued an announcement that Mr. Dong (Dong Yuhui) will no longer serve as an employee of the company or hold any related management position.

When a company breaks up, there is usually a lot of noise, uproar, and chaos.Dong Yuhui and New Oriental broke up surprisingly peacefully.It's so peaceful that people mistakenly think they are not separated.

According to the announcement of Oriental Selection and Yu Minhong’s personal public account Lao Yu Xianhua, New Oriental not only gave Dong Yuhui compensation and rewards in this breakup, but also gave all the Yuhui companions to Dong Yuhui.

What’s even more exaggerated is that New Oriental has already arranged the money for Dong Yuhui to acquire Yuhui Tongxing.

(Image source: pixabay)

What exactly is this mental journey? Yu Minhong wrote in Lao Yu Xianhua:

After discussion and agreement by the board of directors of Oriental Selection, regardless of the operation of the company, Yuhui will be given an attractive guaranteed income (cash + equity) to show the affirmation of Yuhui's value. In order to ensure that Yuhui can design the future of the company according to his own wishes and respect his interest in knowledge and cultural dissemination, the board of directors and I have not made any requirements for the income of the company. He can focus on recommending books, interviewing writers and promoting cultural tourism. At the same time, I promised that in addition to receiving all the guaranteed income, if the company has income, Yuhui can continue to receive half of the company's net profit. In order to ensure that Yuhui and the company can carry out work in a timely manner, under my coordination, we quickly registered the company. It took a few days to free up more than 1,000 square meters of office space for the company, reorganized a mature team of about 60 people, and provided a sales system, pallet supply and a large amount of equipment and facilities support.

In order to ensure that Yuhui Tongxing has a better development platform and avoid business conflicts and public opinion disputes, we have repeatedly negotiated and finally decided that after the end of the fiscal year (May 31), I will ask the board of directors for approval to transfer 100% of Yuhui Tongxing's shares to Yuhui himself.

I went to ask the board of directors for approval to transfer 100% of the shares of Yuhui Xingxing to Yuhui himself.

Tongxing with Hui will soon be independent. To express my gratitude to Yuhui, in addition to paying all the promised benefits, I have asked the board of directors and the compensation committee and obtained their consent to award all the net profits of Tongxing with Hui to Yuhui. At the same time, Yuhui holds the equity purchase funds required by Tongxing with Hui, and I have also arranged to pay them in accordance with the rules of listed companies and the company's articles of association. In order to ensure the normal operation of Tongxing with Hui, Dongfang Zhenxuan, with the consent of the board of directors, will deliver the developed information system to Tongxing with Hui for free.

According to the announcement of Oriental Selection, from its establishment on December 22, 2023 to June 30, 2024, Yuhui Xingxing achieved an unaudited pre-tax profit of approximately RMB 189 million and a net profit of approximately RMB 141 million.

This 140 million is Dong Yuhui’s reward.

(Image source: pixabay)

According to an announcement from Oriental Selection, the acquisition cost of Huitongxing was 76.5855 million yuan. New Oriental has already made arrangements, agreed to sell, and "helped" to buy.

The most important asset of Yuhuixingxing is Dong Yuhui’s own IP. How much is this IP worth?

At the end of 2023, an institution once offered $1 billion. Today's 76.5855 million yuan is far from $1 billion, and may be just the various costs and expenses of running for more than half a year.

New Oriental did not ask Dong Yuhui to buy Dong Yuhui, but asked Dong Yuhui to prove that he is Dong Yuhui. That’s very considerate.

From Dong Yuhui's perspective, he will have to bear all the consequences of the future by himself. Yu Minhong is a good boss of China, and Dong Yuhui's real test has begun.

From New Oriental's perspective, the path of anchors bringing goods is full of risks. Not only can it not withstand the test, but it is also extremely harmful. For the entire anchor industry, one person is above a company, or one person is equal to a company. This is not a business model at all. In the future, related industries may be abandoned by investors, and no matter how much goods are sold, they are not worthy of high valuations.

(Image source: pixabay)

From its peak, the share price of Oriental Selection has fallen by 80%. Those who still insist on buying it despite such a big drop probably love it.Now that the Magic Band has disbanded and Dong Yuhui is gone, is there any reason to continue?

From the education industry being hit hard, Yu Minhong risking everything to fight back, to New Oriental's horse racing mechanism, Dong Yuhui standing out, the beautiful harmony of sharing weal and woe is not ultimately difficult to share wealth and glory. Fortunately,Both parties, especially Yu Minhong, maintained the utmost dignity.

In June 2022, Dong Yuhui said in a video that if he left Oriental Selection, he might find a place to teach.

Can his ideals be fulfilled? He had nothing then, but now he has a lot.

Two years is enough time to change a lot of things, except for human nature.

(Disclaimer: This article is an objective analysis made by Ye Tan Finance based on public information and does not constitute investment advice. Please do not use it as a basis for investment.)

Ye Tan Financial Matrix

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