2024-07-24
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Reporter of China Business Network: Xiao Ruidong Editor of China Business Network: Zhao Yun
On July 24, the market opened lower and continued to fall throughout the day, with the Shenzhen Component Index leading the decline and the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 2,900 points. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.46% and the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.32%.gemThe index fell 1.23%.
In terms of sectors, wind power equipment, commercial aerospace, electricity, liquid-cooled servers and other sectors saw the largest increases, while online ride-hailing, lithography machines, software development, and tourism sectors saw the largest decreases.
Overall, more stocks fell than rose, with more than 4,400 stocks falling in the market. The turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets today was 627.3 billion, down 34.9 billion from the previous trading day.
After the market performance last week and the first two days of this week, I believe that more and more investors have realized the current "rules" of A-shares, that is, the stronger the support of "national team" funds, the greater the probability of a strong market.
However, for such short-term effective rules, smart investors can appropriately "take advantage of the situation", but they should not develop a dependent mentality or "expect without authorization."
The market in the first two trading days of this week has told us two things:
1) Big funds are still there and are not sitting idly by as the market falls
2) However, the strength of big funds is gradually becoming moderate, and it is likely that they will not be as aggressive as they were last week.
Today is the third trading day of this week and the situation is the same.
At 9:40 a.m., the three major indexes that opened high suddenly plunged collectively, and then went down all the way. The Shanghai Composite Index fell below 2,900 points at one point, and the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index both fell by more than 1% at one point.
At 10:53, large funds took action, and many CSI 300 ETFs increased significantly. The three major indexes began to rise collectively, and the decline narrowed. An interesting phenomenon is that whenever the Shanghai Index briefly turned positive, the large buy orders would "stop".
After the afternoon session, the CSI 300 ETF returned to a state of shrinking volume, and the major stock indexes became lack of resistance again.
Near the closing time, big funds made a second move and the CSI 300 ETF saw a significant increase in volume in the last 10 minutes, but the effect was limited to "holding 2,900 points."
You may be able to see it more clearly by combining related products with the intraday chart of the Shanghai Composite Index.
In other words, even if we believe that the "national team" will always take action to protect the market, we still need to be prepared to deal with its "only supporting but not pulling" approach.
Looking back at the short-term "bottoming out and rebounding" that have occurred many times in the market this year, we can actually find that in addition to the force of market protection, the spontaneous "freezing point → boiling point" change of market sentiment and the rotation between themes are also important factors affecting the trend.
Next, return to the normal review.
As of the close, the wind power equipment sector, which led the gains on Monday, continued to rebound from a low level after a brief adjustment on Tuesday. Among the constituent stocks, Feiwo Technology and Xinqianglian hit the daily limit of 20cm.
On the news front, the National Energy Bidding Network recently released the "Guodian Power Guangxi Wind Power Development Co., Ltd. Offshore Wind Power Competitive Allocation Technical Service Public Bidding Project Bidding Announcement". In addition, the State Council Standing Committee studied to increase support for large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in policy measures.
According to the latest research report from BOC Securities, the resonance of domestic and overseas demands has driven the export of power equipment to the overseas market: In order to match the growing demand for energy, regions and countries around the world have invested heavily in supporting the construction of transmission and distribution networks. Capital expenditures of overseas utility companies and orders from power equipment companies have shown a sustained growth trend. Domestic customs export data and corporate revenue structure have also gradually verified the logic of going overseas. Related power equipment export targets are expected to benefit.
Perhaps due to the impact of wind power equipment, the electric power sector rose again today, and some high-dividend stocks with electric power attributes also strengthened today.
As of the closing, the "two dragons of nuclear power" China General Nuclear Power Group rose by more than 5%, and China National Nuclear Corporation rose by more than 4%, setting historical highs; China Yangtze Power, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of Communications, Huaneng Power, and Sichuan Investment Energy simultaneously set new historical highs.
In addition, A-share stocks with a large total market capitalization continued to rise more than fall, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, which soared yesterday, continued to set a new high today.
According to reports, market participants said that nuclear power, as an important base load energy source, has both growth and stability. Specifically:
First, nuclear power can be used as a base load energy source, forming a complementary effect with hydropower and thermal power. Nuclear power generation is stable, with an average utilization of 7,670 hours in 2023 and more than 7,500 hours in the past three years. Its average utilization hours are far ahead, higher than other energy sources such as thermal power and hydropower.
Secondly, nuclear power has obvious economic advantages and is a cash cow. Nuclear power plants have a long construction and operation cycle, and equipment manufacturers will see an increase in revenue in the short term, while operators will see steady growth in profits in the long term.
Finally, with the resonance of domestic and foreign demand, the nuclear power industry is booming. From the demand side, my country's power generation is expected to reach 9.9 trillion kWh in 2024, and the demand for electricity is strong. As a reliable base load energy source, nuclear power is expected to account for 10% of power generation in 2035. From the supply side, the approval of nuclear power units has accelerated in recent years. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, 6-8 new units will be approved each year, and the installed capacity under construction will gradually expand, increasing to 57.03GW in 2023.
Why do we think at the beginning of this article that the "national team"'s market protection actions will most likely continue?
The following report is for reference:
As the second quarter report of funds is released, Central Huijin buys stocksETFThe situation surfaced.
Statistics show that in the second quarter, Central Huijin continued to buy up six "super-sized" ETFs, including Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF, E Fund CSI 300 ETF, Hua Xia CSI 300 ETF, Harvest CSI 300 ETF, Hua Xia SSE 50 ETF, Southern CSI 500 ETF and Hua Xia SSE 50 ETF, increasing its holdings by 9.6 billion shares.
According to the estimated average transaction price in the second quarter, Central Huijin spent more than 30 billion yuan to increase its holdings in the above six ETFs.
Available second quarter report data shows that as of the end of the second quarter, Central Huijin Investment held a large position (holding more than 20%) in 9 ETFs with a market value of nearly 480 billion yuan.
As shown in the figure below, the largest CSI 300 ETF (510300, with a scale of about 250 billion yuan) currently has almost half of its shares held by Central Huijin Investment. Therefore, the so-called "big funds pulling up and then dumping" situation that some investors are worried about is extremely unlikely to happen.
As for the future market, many fund managers are optimistic about subsequent investment opportunities.
Liu Jun, fund manager of Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF, said in the second quarter report that looking forward to the third quarter, entering the mid-term performance disclosure period and the key policy window period, the market will be affected by the resonance of the performance of listed companies and the expectations of the intensity of reform, and may show more volatile market conditions. It is recommended to look for structural opportunities, and the market style may continue to have relative returns. In the medium term, with the Chinese economy ushering in a new round of profit cycle and the dislocation of the Sino-US economic cycle into the second half, the valuation of the A-share market is relatively attractive, with outstanding cost performance, and the allocation opportunities outweigh the risks.
E Fund managers Yu Haiyan and Pang Yaping believe that the current A-share market valuation is still at its historical bottom and is significantly lower than the global market, and has good investment attractiveness both vertically and horizontally.
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