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Trump doesn’t seem as stable as imagined!

The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll shows that after U.S. President Joe Biden ended his re-election campaign and passed the torch to Vice President Kamala Harris, Harris currently leads Republican Donald Trump by a narrow margin of two percentage points.

By comparison, Harris was trailing Trump by two points in last week's poll before Biden dropped out of the race. In the latest national poll, Harris leads Trump 44% to 42%, with a margin of error of less than 3 percentage points.

Harris told supporters in Wisconsin at the first rally of her 2024 presidential campaign that she will "continue to unite the Democratic Party" in the coming weeks in preparation for next month's Democratic National Convention and a showdown with Trump this fall.

Trump has previously said that his daughter Ivanka would be the first female president of the United States. At first, he obviously did not take Harris seriously. So, with the reversal of the polls, how will Trump react?

According to FORTUNE, Elon Musk said in an interview with conservative commentator Jordan Peterson on Monday night local time that he did not spend $45 million a month to elect former President Donald Trump, even though he has set up a new super political action committee (PAC) to fund the Republican candidate. He seemed to withdraw his promise to support Trump with $45 million a month.

Harris counterattack

Harris' campaign says she has secured the Democratic presidential nomination. In national polls, Harris leads Trump 44% to 42%, with a margin of error of less than 3 percentage points.

Harris and Trump both had 44% support in the July 15-16 poll, while Trump led by one percentage point in the July 1-2 poll, both within the same margin of error.

While nationwide polls provide important signals about Americans' support for political candidates, a handful of closely contested states often influence the outcome of the U.S. Electoral College, which ultimately determines who wins the presidential election.

Harris is seen as sharper than both Biden and Trump. About 56% of registered voters agreed that Harris, 59, is "sharp-minded and up to the challenge," while only 49% said the same about Trump, 78.

About 80% of Democratic voters said they had a favorable impression of Biden, while 91% also had a favorable impression of Harris. Three-quarters of Democratic voters said they agreed that the party and voters should support Harris now, and only a quarter said there should be multiple candidates competing for the party's nomination.

Harris led Trump 42% to 38%, a lead that was outside the margin of error, when voters in the survey were shown a hypothetical ballot that included independent presidential candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. Kennedy, who has 8% support in the poll but has not yet qualified in many states before the Nov. 5 election, said.

The poll was conducted online and surveyed 1,241 American adults nationwide, including 1,018 registered voters.

In addition, judging by campaign donations, market forecasts and the number of supporters, Biden's handover to Harris has an immediate impact on the election. The first major poll released was the Morning Consult national poll since Biden announced his decision to withdraw from the race last Sunday. The results showed that Harris's support rate was 45%, only 2% behind Trump's 47%, which is within the margin of error and a significant improvement over Biden's 6%.

Support from the elite

After months of unusually low celebrity support for incumbent Biden as he seeks re-election, Hollywood is now rekindling its support for the Democratic Party's new presumptive nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, in her run against former President Donald Trump.

“My phone is blowing up,” a source close to the Harris campaign said of the sudden influx of calls from Hollywood. “I don’t even have time to answer them.”

“I think people don’t realize how worried they are until there’s hope,” said a Democratic strategist with deep ties to the entertainment industry. For Hollywood, Harris is hope.

In addition, Harris had just finished her first campaign stop in Milwaukee and came to the tree-lined upscale streets of Chevy Chase, Maryland, to talk with supporters organized by a JPMorgan Chase executive. A JPMorgan Chase spokesman confirmed that Peter Scher, vice chairman of the largest bank in the United States, will host the event at his home. The event, which aims to let wealthy supporters get to know the vice president, was planned before Harris became the presumptive Democratic candidate. Judy Dimon, the wife of the bank's chairman and CEO, has previously donated to the Biden-Harris campaign and attended discussions in the Washington area. Her husband, Jamie Dimon, has been in contact with the Biden and Harris camps and the Trump camp to discuss policy issues, but does not plan to donate to or support any of the candidates. Interestingly, not long ago, Trump proposed that Dimon be the next Treasury Secretary.

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who ran the 2016 presidential campaign, voiced her support for Harris in a New York Times op-ed on Tuesday, arguing that the presumptive Democratic nominee is "an astute former prosecutor and successful vice president" who can "offer a vision of hope and unity to the American people."

Gregory Meeks, chairman of the Congressional Black Caucus political action committee, said the committee received more than $1.5 million in small online donations in two days as Harris quickly became the Democratic presidential candidate. Netflix co-founder Reed Hastings has donated $7 million to a political action committee supporting Harris, the largest political donation Hastings has made to a single candidate.

Trump team's response

In response to Harris' latest move, Republican Rep. Mike Lawler insisted that Harris's candidacy would not affect the fierce competition in the House of Representatives, and said that the Biden administration's policies have made Harris unpopular, and this impact will carry over to her own candidacy.

Trump said Tuesday that if he had known he would be facing Vice President Kamala Harris instead of President Joe Biden, he would still have chosen Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance as his running mate.

Additionally, the Trump campaign filed a lawsuit with the Federal Election Commission on Tuesday, arguing that funds raised by Biden's re-election campaign cannot be transferred to Harris' presidential campaign.

The complaint was filed by David Warrington, general counsel for the Trump campaign, who argued that the transfer of the funds was "nothing more than a veiled transition donation of $91.5 million from one presidential candidate to another."

"Harris attempted to defraud Biden of $91.5 million of his remaining campaign coffers — a brazen attempt to extract money that would constitute the largest excess contribution and largest violation in the history of the Federal Election Campaign Act of 1971, as amended," a copy of the indictment reads.

The complaint targets Biden, Harris, the Biden campaign (now the Harris campaign) and campaign treasurer Keana Spencer, alleging they "flagrantly violated the Act by accepting and disbursing nearly $100 million in transition contributions and filing false forms with the Commission purporting to redirect one candidate's primary campaign committee to another candidate."

Given the commission’s slow pace in addressing enforcement issues, it’s unlikely it will take any action after Election Day. Most campaign finance lawyers don’t think that’s the best reading of the law, said Rick Hasen, an expert in election law at the UCLA School of Law.

Source: China Securities

Statement: All information content of Databao does not constitute investment advice. The stock market is risky and investment should be cautious.

Editor: Lin Lifeng

Proofreading: Tang Haocheng

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