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Source: Global Times

[Global Times reporter Ni Hao] According to Bloomberg, after former US President Trump was "attempted to assassinate" last weekend, the capital market boosted bets on his election as US president. The global market showed a trend of rising US dollar, slightly falling gold prices and stable oil prices.

According to reports, during the Asian trading session on the morning of the 15th, the US dollar index rose by 0.2%, the S&P 500 futures were basically flat, US Treasury futures fell, Australian and South Korean stock markets rose, and Bitcoin broke through $60,000. Some analysts believe that this fluctuation may reflect Trump's friendly stance on cryptocurrencies.

Bloomberg News said that since the current US President Biden performed poorly in the debate last month, endangering his re-election campaign, a series of bets based on the expectation that Trump's return to the White House will bring tax cuts, higher tariffs and deregulation have been increasing. After Trump was shot at a rally in Pennsylvania last weekend, he further inspired supporters and won more sympathy. Related transactions on betting on his victory are expected to increase further in the market.

Well-known investment company Roundhill Investments said that Trump's "failed assassination" is unprecedented and will increase market volatility. Investors are expected to flock to defensive stocks such as super large-cap companies for risk aversion. Tallbacken Capital Advisors CEO Purvis believes that "if the market feels that Trump's chances of winning are greater than last Friday, the back end of the bond market is expected to be sold off as we saw right after the debate."

On June 27, in the first round of televised debates for the US presidential election, Trump was considered to have performed better and his approval rating rose. The financial market staged a "Trump deal", with US bond interest rates rising and "Trump stocks" (energy, steel, banks, etc.) rising, and the market's attention to the "Trump deal" began to rise. Everbright Securities analyst Gao Ruidong believes that if Trump is elected, his strong fiscal expansion, trade policies and changes in the geopolitical situation will increase the risk of global asset volatility. Considering Trump's ruling ideas of imposing tariffs, restricting immigration and preferring fiscal and monetary easing, which are likely to lead to a rebound in inflation, there is upward pressure on US bond interest rates; and the resumption of tariff measures and the intensification of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict may amplify global economic disturbances and push up risk aversion. Coupled with the weakening of the safe-haven attribute of the US dollar under the pressure of US debt, gold prices are still supported.

Xue Wei, an analyst at Debon Securities, believes that the market may perform a "Trump rally" in the short term, which will benefit U.S. financial stocks, traditional energy, and major manufacturers that benefit from trade protection. However, there is great uncertainty in the driving force of emergencies, and in the long run, the performance of the financial market still depends on macro factors such as the U.S. economy, inflation, and industrial trends.