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Private equity funds increased their holdings significantly, reaching a 20-week high.

Data from Private Equity Ranking Network shows that as of July 5 (due to information disclosure compliance and other reasons, private equity net value and position calculation data are relatively lagging), the private equity position index was 78.77%, a significant increase of 0.89% from last week, ending the two-week decline in the private equity position index. At the same time, the position index of 78.77% hit a nearly eight-week high, approaching the year's high level, and the single-week increase in positions hit a nearly 20-week high.

The increase in holdings of private equity funds worth tens of billions of yuan hit a 42-week high

Private equity positions increased across the board. According to private equity ranking data, as of July 5, 56.99% of private equity funds were fully invested in stocks; 29.49% of private equity funds were medium-sized; 12.22% of private equity funds were short-term; and 1.30% of private equity funds were short-term. Compared with last week, the proportion of private equity funds fully invested in stocks increased significantly, while the proportion of private equity funds with other positions decreased, indicating that all private equity funds increased their positions.

From the perspective of private equity positions of different sizes, private equity funds with a scale of 10 billion yuan have increased their positions the most. According to data from Private Equity Ranking Network, as of July 5, the position indexes of private equity funds with a scale of more than 10 billion yuan, 5-10 billion yuan, 2-5 billion yuan, 1-2 billion yuan, 5-1 billion yuan and 0-500 million yuan were 74.14%, 72.91%, 74.96%, 79.20%, 76.96% and 81.45% respectively. Among them, the position index of private equity funds with a scale of 0-500 million yuan was the highest, and private equity funds with a scale of 10 billion yuan became the private equity funds with the strongest position increase, increasing their positions by 4.40% in a single week, a record high in the past 42 weeks. At the same time, the position level of 74.14% also hit a record high in the past 9 weeks, returning to the high level of the year.

In addition, in terms of the distribution of positions of private equity funds worth over 10 billion, nearly 50% of them are fully invested. According to data from Private Equity Ranking Network, as of July 5, 46.28% of private equity funds worth over 10 billion were fully invested; 44.37% were medium invested; 7.55% were short invested; and 1.81% were short invested. Compared with last week, the proportion of medium invested and fully invested private equity funds worth over 10 billion increased significantly, while the proportion of short invested and short invested private equity funds worth over 10 billion decreased significantly, indicating that private equity funds worth over 10 billion have a strong collective willingness to increase their positions.

The market is expected to emerge from a structural trend in the second half of the year

Although market liquidity was weak last week, policy signals were relatively clear, and many private equity institutions also expressed optimism about the A-share market's future performance.

Yi Xiaobin, equity investment director of Shunshi Investment, mentioned that although the market has stabilized recently after seven consecutive weekly negative lines (Shanghai Composite Index), and closed with a short-lived positive line, and the trading volume has also slightly increased, the market is still weak. "Fortunately, the support of policies has not diminished, such as suspending securities lending and raising the margin ratio for securities lending, which has offset the market's motivation to further short. This hesitant trend may also be waiting for an important meeting to be held this week, hoping that there will be unexpected policies that can help the economy get out of the predicament."

"After a long decline lasting nearly two months, the overall trend may have reached a second bottom." Xia Fengguang, manager of Rongzhi Investment Fund, said that in terms of fundamental factors, there are many positive factors that can be expected in the next two months. For example, the important meeting this week will focus on the implementation of economic work, and it is expected that targeted policies will be introduced. The current economic data has also stabilized at a low level. On the external side, once the Federal Reserve starts to cut interest rates, the RMB exchange rate will be significantly supported, the attractiveness of RMB assets will be greatly increased, and the central bank's future monetary policy will have more room for maneuver.

"Therefore, the market's low point in early July has most likely been found. The key variables for the future will be the degree of improvement in earnings data and the pace of incremental funds entering the market," said Xia Fengguang.

Chen Shi, fund manager of Mingze Investment, is also optimistic about the performance of A-shares in the future. He said that on the one hand, there have been positive changes in external factors. The inflation in the United States in June was significantly lower than expected, which increased the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September. On the other hand, the overall domestic economic operation in the first half of the year was stable and improved. In addition, the important meeting held this week is expected to continue to promote medium- and long-term reforms and set the tone for subsequent economic work. The domestic economy is expected to recover further.

"The reform expectations from the important meeting held this week may ferment and may become a catalyst for a market rebound. At present, we maintain our main judgment that some economic signals are close to the bottom, and the reform expectations of the Third Plenary Session may catalyze a market rebound." Mingyu Asset finally analyzed.