the real estate market has entered the "golden september", and there is still room for policy efforts
2024-09-09
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(this article was written by ding zuyu, ceo of e-house group; ding zuyu's property market editorial department, cric research)
the real estate market has entered the "golden september".
on the one hand, although it is the traditional peak season for marketing, real estate developers are not very enthusiastic about launching new projects. according to cric research, the new commercial housing supply area in 28 key cities in september is expected to be 7.03 million square meters, a decrease of 4% month-on-month and 59% year-on-year. the absolute amount is significantly lower than the monthly average in the second quarter and is basically the same as the monthly average of 6.99 million square meters in the first quarter.
on the other hand, although 56 cities issued 67 relaxations of real estate policies in august, the overall transaction volume in 30 key cities was 9.23 million square meters, and the absolute volume was only equivalent to that in january, which was the second lowest in the first eight months of the year.
according to the data from the second quarter urban depositor questionnaire survey report released by the survey and statistics department of the people's bank of china, in the second quarter of 2024, the residents' income perception index fell by 1.3 percentage points from the previous quarter, and the income confidence index fell by 1.4 percentage points from the previous quarter.in terms of expectations, 23.20% of residents expect housing prices to "fall" in the third quarter, and the proportion of residents who expect housing prices to "fall" has reached a new high since 2019.
we believe that there is a high probability that transactions in september will increase slightly month-on-month but decrease year-on-year, and there is still room for policy efforts.
"golden september" market enthusiasm is insufficient
only first-tier supply ring increases
september and october of each year are the traditional peak seasons for the real estate market. as an important marketing node in the industry, many real estate companies will actively market during this period. some launch "golden september and silver october" promotional activities, some increase product promotion efforts, and win potential customers through various means.
looking at this year, although the absolute number of new projects launched by real estate developers is lower than the monthly average in the second quarter, it is basically the same as the monthly average in the first quarter.according to cric research, the new commercial housing supply area in 28 key cities is expected to be 7.03 million square meters in september, a 4% decrease from the previous month and a 59% decrease from the previous year.
in terms of energy levels, only first-tier cities maintained a positive growth of 10% month-on-month.the cumulative year-on-year decline is lower than that of second- and third-tier cities. among them, beijing and guangzhou have concentrated on increasing supply and increasing month-on-month. beijing expects the supply to reach 500,000 square meters in september, the second highest absolute volume of the year, and more than 3,700 units are expected to enter the market, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of about 10%. shanghai and shenzhen both maintain a trend of year-on-year and month-on-month decline. taking shenzhen as an example, affected by the current market environment, the pace of real estate developers' sales is expected to be stable with a decline, and the supply may be less than 3,000 units.
second-tier supply fell slightly by 5% month-on-month and fell by more than 60% year-on-year, and differentiation continued to intensify.in terms of absolute quantity, the monthly supply in xi'an and changsha exceeded 500,000 square meters. in terms of changes, ningbo, suzhou, xi'an, changsha, chongqing, xiamen, etc. have increased their supply in stages. this month, the month-on-month growth rate has continued, among which ningbo and suzhou have doubled. suzhou's supply mainly fell year-on-year due to the low base last month; while ningbo ushered in a concentrated increase in supply, and the cumulative year-on-year decline narrowed to less than 30%. the remaining cities basically maintained a trend of both month-on-month and year-on-year declines. even chengdu and hangzhou, which were relatively popular in the early stage, saw a slight correction in supply this month, and real estate developers were not very enthusiastic about launching new projects.
the supply volume in third- and fourth-tier cities fell by more than 40% both year-on-year and month-on-month. the supply in the five key cities in the yangtze river delta and pearl river delta generally declined. due to market conditions, they are basically in the stage of destocking.
450 policy relaxations in the first 8 months
transactions in key cities remain at a high level
real estate developers' enthusiasm for launching new projects is mainly affected by downward market pressure.
according to incomplete statistics, there were about 450 real estate relaxation policies issued in the first eight months of 2024, with the highest frequency reaching 68 in july. compared with the same period in 2023,the frequency of monthly relaxation policies introduced from 2024 to date is significantly higher than in 2023.
however, judging from the results, apart from the active implementation of the "may 17 new policy" by various regions in may and june, there have been few new ideas in the demand-side policies recently, and their strength and impact have been limited.
cric data shows that the cumulative transaction volume in 30 key cities in the first eight months was 81.65 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 34%.in the just-concluded august, the overall transaction volume was 9.23 million square meters, and the absolute volume was only equivalent to that in january, a decrease of 9% month-on-month, a decrease of 20% year-on-year, and a decrease of 23% compared with the average of the second quarter.
in terms of energy levels, the four first-tier cities of beijing, shanghai, guangzhou and shenzhen all experienced declines in august 2024 compared with the same period last year. in addition to supply constraints, residents' wait-and-see attitude towards buying houses continued to intensify.in particular, the stimulus policy in may had a decreasing effect on the market. among the four cities, only beijing's transaction volume in august increased by 3% compared with the second quarter's monthly average, and the scale can still be maintained.
the month-on-month transaction decline of 8% in second- and third-tier cities was less than that in first-tier cities, but the month-on-month and cumulative year-on-year declines were significantly higher than those in first-tier cities.
23.20% of residents expect housing prices to "fall"
the proportion has reached the highest point since 2019
judging from the current market, lack of confidence remains the core key.
according to the "2024 second quarter urban depositor questionnaire survey report" released by the survey and statistics department of the people's bank of china, the income perception index of 20,000 urban depositors in 50 cities across the country was 46.6% in the second quarter, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous quarter. the income confidence index was 45.6%, down 1.4 percentage points from the previous quarter.
from the trend point of view, the income perception and income confidence index of urban depositors rebounded to a high level in the first quarter of 2023 after falling in the second quarter of 2022.since 2023, the income perception and income confidence indexes have continued to decline.
regarding expectations for housing prices in the next quarter, 11.0% of residents expect "increase" in the second quarter of 2024, 52.3% of residents expect "basically unchanged", 23.2% of residents expect "decrease", and 13.6% of residents "cannot tell".
since 2019, the number of residents who expect house prices to "fall" has been on the rise, from 9.80% to 23.2%., currently the highest point since 2019.
judging from the trends of expected "increase" and expected "decrease", in the second quarter of 2022, the proportion of residents expecting "increase" and "decrease" intersected for the first time, and then until the second quarter of 2023, the two intersected many times.after the second quarter of 2023, the proportion of residents who expected a "fall" began to increase significantly.at the same time, the proportion of residents who expected an increase in housing prices also began to decline significantly.
it can be seen that after the repeated fluctuations from the second quarter of 2022 to the second quarter of 2023, the number of people who expect house prices to "fall" in the market currently significantly exceeds the number of people who expect house prices to "rise".at the same time, the expectation of "basically unchanged" is still the mainstream.
in terms of consumption, savings and investment intentions, 25.1% of residents tend to "consume more", an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the previous quarter; 61.5% of residents tend to "save more", a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous quarter; and 13.3% of residents tend to "invest more", a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous quarter.
according to the survey report of the survey and statistics department of the people's bank of china, current investment intention has dropped to the lowest point in nearly three years.
the housing pension pilot program was launched in august 2024, and the local acquisition and storage of existing housing stock has made progress, but the favorable policies introduced by major cities in the early stage have had a decreasing effect on boosting the market.
we believe that there is still room for real estate policy to be strengthened in september. on the one hand, key policy nodes such as "930" are approaching, and there have been rumors in the market recently that the interest rates on existing mortgage loans will be further adjusted. on the other hand, the current new and second-hand housing markets are less active, transaction momentum is insufficient, and market confidence needs to be boosted.
(this article only represents the author’s personal views)
