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the first "self-made submarine" (named "hai kun"), which the taiwan authorities have spent about nt$50 billion to build, will be delayed in its sea departure date. according to recent reports by taiwanese media, the "hai kun" is currently undergoing port testing, but more than 70 items have failed the test and need to be retested. the sea trial, which was originally scheduled to be conducted in october this year, will be postponed to next year.

"haikun". image source: china times news network

it never happened "right away"

the taiwan authorities' plan to "build their own submarines" began in 2016, with the contract deadline set in may 2019 and the "groundbreaking ceremony" held in november 2020. tsai ing-wen, then leader of the taiwan authorities, declared at the "groundbreaking ceremony" that the start of construction of the "self-built submarines" "demonstrated the determination to implement defense independence."

in september 2023, the naming and launching ceremony of the "haikun" was held in kaohsiung, hosted by tsai ing-wen. according to taiwanese media reports, the venue was strictly confidential and professional military journalists were prohibited from interviewing. there were reports that the battery and mast of the "haikun" had not yet been assembled. tsai ing-wen was criticized for being too ambitious and "regarding the submarine (boat) as an important target for her personal historical positioning."

in february 2024, when the "haikun" was conducting a "floating ship test operation", it was reported that many equipment had not yet been installed on the "haikun", and it was almost empty, with a shallow draft and most of the hull exposed. according to reports, after the "haikun" arrives at the tsmc dry dock, it will be installed with batteries, periscopes and other equipment, and undergo power and other tests. it can only go out to sea after everything meets the standards.

at that time, many "experts" on the island said that "the test will be completed soon and the overseas test will be carried out soon." this "soon" has not happened until now. instead, in september, it was reported that more than 70 projects had not passed the test, and the overseas test may be delayed until next year.

"haikun". image source: china times news network

is it possible and necessary to build a submarine yourself?

the issue of "making submarines" by the taiwan authorities has been debated for a long time. some media analyzed that whether taiwan has the ability to "make submarines" is one question, and whether it is necessary to "make submarines" is another question.

in fact, taiwan's ability to build submarines has always been questioned. according to media reports, in taiwan's "self-made submarine" related plan, components are divided into three categories. equipment and weapons that taiwan cannot develop and produce, such as sonar, torpedo (tube) and other combat systems, are classified in the "red zone"; parts that are also difficult to obtain, but taiwan may make them in the future belong to the "yellow zone"; and the "green zone" is taiwan's self-produced components. the "red zone" is almost all critical systems.

in addition, the u.s. website "foreign policy" wrote an article earlier that the biggest challenge facing the taiwan authorities in "making their own submarines" is funding. if they want to build eight submarines, the first four alone will cost $5 billion in military expenditures, not including long-term operating and maintenance costs. the article said that many interest groups support "making their own submarines" and want the local shipbuilding industry to profit, but their estimates of economic benefits are obviously too optimistic.

taiwanese people also have complaints about the "self-made submarine". some netizens said, "how can this be called a 'hai kun'? it is clearly the dpp's 'money box'!" "will this submarine be sealed for 30 years and never launched into the water, or will no one know whether it has been launched into the water because it has been kept as an absolute secret."

the mainland has also made a clear statement on this. as early as 2017, ma xiaoguang, a spokesperson for the taiwan affairs office of the state council, said that developing some offensive weapons to safeguard its own erroneous political line would only increase tensions and confrontations between the two sides of the taiwan strait, and would not benefit taiwan's economic development or social livelihood.

at the regular press conference of the ministry of national defense held in september last year, spokesman wu qian pointed out that taiwan's "self-made submarines" are nothing but a mantis trying to stop a chariot, and the so-called "preventing the pla from entering the pacific ocean" is a pipe dream.

in march this year, taiwanese media reported that lai ching-te visited taiwan's "self-made submarines" and proposed to accelerate the production of submarines. chen binhua, spokesman for the taiwan affairs office of the state council, said that wasting the hard-earned money of the taiwanese people on these useless things will not make taiwan safer, but will only make taiwanese compatriots more and more uneasy. the dpp authorities have no way out of separatist confrontation, and their delusion of "seeking independence through force" is even more presumptuous.

as taiwan's china times pointed out in an article, only by striving for peaceful development across the taiwan strait can long-term peace and stability be achieved. the dpp authorities should think twice.