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citic securities: the impact of external signals has intensified, and internal signals still need to be observed

external signals will enter a critical window in the next two weeks. the us dollar interest rate cut, the us election and the us stock market trend will become clearer, while internal signals still need to be observed. it is expected that domestic macro data in august will remain weak, and the boost to domestic demand still needs the implementation of policies and the increase of incremental policies. after the external signals become clearer, market liquidity and extremely pessimistic sentiment are expected to stabilize, and market style will also tend to be balanced. it is recommended to continue to reap the bottom dividends and increase overseas allocations.

on the one hand, the latest us employment data for august was revised downward and weak, and recession expectations were strengthened. it is expected that the federal reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in september as scheduled, and 75 basis points for the whole year; after the first debate between harris and trump on september 10, the current tense us election situation will also become clear; in addition, us stocks are adjusting under the dual pressure of performance expectations and liquidity, which has suppressed domestic market sentiment. on the other hand, it is expected that the domestic macro data for august to be disclosed will still be weak, production may slow down, and consumption is still bottoming out, while high-frequency data show that price signals are still difficult to turn around, and domestic demand still needs to be implemented. the policy takes effect and the incremental policy is increased. as the internal and external signals become clearer during the key window period, coupled with the implementation of the mid-term report, the change in dividend expectations, and the easing of market liquidity pressure, it is expected that the extremely pessimistic investor sentiment is expected to stabilize in september, and the market style will also tend to be balanced. it is recommended to continue to hold the bottom position dividend and increase the allocation to overseas.

cicc: the market shows many bottom characteristics

the market shows many bottom characteristics, but confidence restoration still needs more positive factors to support it. looking ahead to the future market, although there are still many suppressive factors both internally and externally in the near future, the market itself is in the value range, and attention should be paid to marginal changes in positive factors during the index adjustment period. the market has some bottom characteristics recently: the turnover rate of a shares calculated by free float market value has dropped to the historical bottom level of 1.5%; at the valuation level, the dividend yield of the csi 300 exceeds the 10-year treasury bond rate by 1.1 percentage points, and the valuation of the csi 300 index is near the historical bottom of one standard deviation, and the market has good valuation attractiveness; strong stocks often make up for the decline, which is also a common phenomenon at the historical stage bottom. follow-up attention will be paid to the progress of fiscal spending and the marginal impact of the fed's interest rate cut rhythm on my country's monetary policy, exchange rate, and capital market.

in terms of allocation, the attractiveness of the dividend sector has rebounded after adjustments, and more attention needs to be paid to the fundamentals of the numerator and the sustainability of dividends. since mid-july, consumer electronics, semiconductors, etc. have adjusted by more than 10%, and the valuations are not high. in addition, the consumer electronics sector may have more news catalysts recently, and there may be a phased market trend. pay attention to the field of technological innovation, especially sectors with independent industrial logic. export chains and globally priced resources may be differentiated after a short-term correction due to overseas fluctuations.

citic construction investment: bottom conditions are in place, three lines are waiting for opportunities to be deployed

earnings expectations have been revised downward recently, and investor sentiment is low, but overall we believe that the market has bottomed out. the recent market position and phenomenon show bottom-region characteristics, but the fed's interest rate cuts and domestic policy efforts will improve valuations and earnings expectations. in addition, the base effect will also improve the year-on-year data of the fourth quarter's fundamentals. investors should wait for opportunities to make arrangements in the future. consider the bottom layout along three clues: the improvement of the economic reality under the new clues of equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in, the subsequent economic elasticity of the domestic demand-related sectors with resilience in the mid-term report, and the valuation repair of the growth direction with its own industry logic that is expected to bottom out. focus on: home appliances, automobiles, non-bank, military industry, lithium batteries, electronics, pharmaceuticals, etc.

shenwan hongyuan: the market continues to be weak

in the short term, economic data is weak, and the second quarter results show little direction to strengthen the economic outlook. before major changes in policy expectations occur, the market may continue to operate along the original path. at this stage, the management's policy statements do not support the fermentation of particularly optimistic policy expectations, and the market game policy transactions are still not seen until the rabbit is released. putting aside all the complicated discussions, the environment faced by a-shares in the short term is weak fundamentals + vague policy expectations. the original path of the market is weak fluctuations.

the consumption services in the third quarter report may reflect more of the decline in demand (which was not fully reflected in the second quarter report). with the appreciation of the rmb, the current revenue of the export chain may be further under pressure. combined with the high base of the third quarter report, under the current path, the profit growth rate of the third quarter report may further decline. in this case, breaking through the original market path requires major changes in policy expectations, especially monetary policy. at this stage, the central bank expressed support for the easing direction, but the relevant statements on the magnitude and intensity are still restrained. it does not support particularly optimistic policy expectations. the market game policy is still not to see the rabbit, not to release the eagle. the fundamentals are weak, and the visibility of policy formulation, implementation, and effects is low. the market continues to be weak.

haitong securities: finding configuration clues from the interim report

there are three clues worth noting in the interim report. first, the high-end manufacturing sector has performed well in terms of profitability under the resonance of domestic and foreign demand. second, the profitability of the upstream resource sector has significantly improved, benefiting from the global commodity price increase and the domestic factor marketization reform. third, the profitability of the consumption sectors such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and social services has been boosted by the improvement of pork prices and service consumption. the stable growth policy has promoted the improvement of fundamentals, and the loose overseas liquidity is expected to push up the market center. china's advantageous manufacturing may become the main line.

china merchants securities: pursuing a high intrinsic rate of return

since the end of august, the market style has changed, and dividend assets have been adjusted significantly. after the semi-annual report, the market has also begun to layout new directions, and the consumption, manufacturing, and technology growth sectors have risen significantly. in the future, we believe that the current earnings tend to be low growth and low volatility, and the pursuit of high intrinsic return rates and local prosperity is still the choice of the subsequent market. in terms of industry, it is recommended to focus on areas that are expected to stabilize first, such as automobiles, home appliances, and trade and retail in the consumer service sector; power grid equipment and mechanical equipment in the mid-to-high-end manufacturing industry; and electronics and medicine in the field of science and technology medicine.

huatai securities: it is recommended to grasp four main lines

the market bottom position in early february this year is relatively solid: data show that the current funding risk is lower than at the beginning of the year, and the recent recovery of industrial capital holdings/repurchase plan data also provides a bottoming force for funds. the current leveraged funds liquidation pressure clearance range and the potential correction range of the csi 300 after excluding banks both show that the market bottom position in early february is relatively solid.

the key to the rhythm lies in whether the social financing data next week can show a slowdown in credit contraction, whether the potential fiscal efforts in the third quarter can reverse the market's expectations of the forward credit cycle, and whether improvements in the capital structure such as the recovery of financing activity/industrial capital turning to net increase in holdings can occur. it is recommended to grasp four clues: ah premium convergence, a50 and insurance, industries with two-way improvement in supply and demand (such as general automation/shipping/communication equipment/inverter/packaging and printing/papermaking, etc.), and pharmaceuticals/hong kong stocks internet that benefit strongly from interest rate cuts.

galaxy securities: there is a large room for rebound in the future market

the current valuation of the a-share market is still at a historically low level, and there is a large room for rebound in the future. looking ahead, in terms of a-share allocation: the 2024 interim results show that the performance of the financial sector has improved beyond expectations, and the dividend rate of financial stocks is relatively high. the current financial mergers and acquisitions are accelerating, and it is expected that the financial sector will continue to outperform the entire a-share market. in september, new products in the consumer electronics industry will be unveiled one after another, which is expected to drive the outbreak of related themes. u.s. manufacturing activities are still trapped in the contraction range, the vitality of the u.s. job market has further weakened, expectations for interest rate cuts in september have increased, and the interest rate cut cycle is expected to begin. it is recommended to pay attention to a-share industries that may benefit from the fed's interest rate cuts.

soochow securities: it’s time to actively deploy

looking ahead, the current round of core asset retreat and dividend strengthening has lasted for three years. at present, the market is in the process of style balancing. as the fed's interest rate cuts approach, the global liquidity cycle begins to rise, and the suppression of high interest rates on global demand will be alleviated. with the accumulation of positive factors, the global manufacturing cycle is expected to rise, which is expected to become an important driving force for the reversal of market expectations. with reference to overseas markets, the longest adjustment of us stocks since 1950 is no more than two and a half years, and the longest adjustment of japanese stocks since 1980 was around the bursting of the internet bubble in 2000, and it only lasted about three years. combined with the three-year characteristics of a-shares, we believe that the lowest point of a-shares may have passed. at the style level, the growth sector of a-shares has entered the point of active layout.

debon securities: the overall a-share capital situation continues to improve

since august, the overall a-share funding situation has continued to improve, but the activity of various funding entities is still quite different. northbound and leveraged funds continue to maintain large net outflows due to the continued bottoming of a-shares, unclear domestic fundamentals and policy expectations, and the continued escalation of external liquidity and geopolitical disturbances. etf funds continue to maintain a large net buying trend and continue to support the stabilization and improvement of the on-site funding situation. among them, regulatory capital represented by huijin and insurance funds are the main sources of funds for this round of etf inflows. insurance funds have maintained net inflows since the second quarter, indicating that the current willingness of insurance funds to flow into the equity market is further increasing. the willingness of private equity, bank wealth management and other funds to enter the market is still not high.

looking ahead, considering that various current funding indicators are still at historical lows, there is still room for further improvement; however, given the domestic stable growth environment and many uncertainties in the external markets in the second half of the year, the sustainability of the improvement may still need further verification.